US Press: pick of the papers

The ten must-read opinion pieces from today's US papers.

1. In Iraq, a man of the shadows (Washington Post)

Is Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki - suspicious eyes, wary demeanor, brows furrowed by years living in the underground - really the face of today's Iraq? Unfortunately, the answer is yes, and America helped make it that way, writes David Ignatius.

2. Cuba restrictions: bad on policy, bad on tactics (St. Petersburg Times)

U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart of Miami is using thousands of Cuban-American families as pawns in a game of chicken with Democrats and President Barack Obama over next year's federal budget.

3. Save marriage: let gays wed (Washington Post)

It might be up to gay men and lesbians to save marriage, according to Jonathan Capehart.

4. What Wyden-Ryan hath wrought (Washington Post)

Matt Miller explains why the new Wyden-Ryan Medicare framework is the most fascinating policy and political maneuver of the year.

5. The 'hot mess' of politics (Los Angeles Times)

Political figures including Gingrich are lucky Americans' tolerance for screw-ups is fairly high, according to Meghan Daum.

6. Republicans and Democrats play games with payroll tax cut (New York Daily News)

Both parties need to get their heads out of the schoolyard and into the public interest.

7. Huge odds that Newt comes up snake eyes (Boston Herald)

Newt Gingrich provided on Monday redundant evidence for the proposition that he is the least conservative candidate seeking the Republican nomination, writes George F. Will.

8. The great eight: attacks to remember (Politico)

The Republican presidential field's long nightmare is almost over, writes Maggie Haberman.

9. Mayor Bloomberg rightly takes aim at online gun sales (New York Daily News)

Anonymous Internet cash business puts weapons in criminals' hands, no questions asked.

10. A United States of Europe? (Los Angeles Times)

There are uncanny similarities between the current round of wheeling and dealing and the founding of the United States of America. Bruce Ackerman asks whether we are witnessing the birth of the United States of Europe.

Getty
Show Hide image

How to end the Gulf stand off? The West should tell Qatar to reform its foreign policy

Former defence secretary Geoff Hoon on the unfolding crisis in the Gulf. 

Only one group stands to benefit from a continuation of the crisis in Gulf: The Quartet, as they are now being called. Last week, The United Arab Emirates foreign minister tweeted that Qatar and its Gulf Cooperation Council neighbours are heading for a "long estrangement". We should take him at his word.

The European political establishment has been quick to dismiss the boycott by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt as naïve, and a strategic mistake. The received wisdom now is that they have acted impulsively, and that any payoff will be inescapably pyrrhic. I’m not so sure.

Another view: Qatar is determined to stand up to its Gulf neighbours

Jean-Yves Le Drian, France's foreign minister, was in the region over the weekend to see if he could relay some of his boss’s diplomatic momentum. He has offered to help mediate with Kuwait, clearly in the belief that this is the perfect opportunity to elevate France back to the top table. But if President Emmanuel Macron thinks this one will be as straightforward as a Donald Trump handshake, he should know that European charm doesn’t function as well in the 45 degree desert heat (even if some people call him the Sun King).

Western mediation has so far proceeded on the assumption that both sides privately know they will suffer if this conflict drags on. The US secretary of state Rex Tillerson judged that a Qatari commitment to further counter-terrorism measures might provide sufficient justification for a noble reversal. But he perhaps underestimates the seriousness of the challenge being made to Qatar. This is not some poorly-judged attempt to steal a quick diplomatic win over an inferior neighbour.

Qatar’s foreign policy is of direct and existential concern to the other governments in the Gulf. They will not let Qatar off the hook. And even more than that, why should they? Qatar has enormous diplomatic and commercial clout for its size, but that would evaporate in an instant if companies and governments were forced to choose between Doha and the Quartet, whose combined GDP is almost ten times that of their former ally. Iran, Turkey and Russia might stay on side. But Qatar would lose the US and Europe, where most of its soft power has been developed. Qatar’s success has been dependent on its ability to play both sides. If it loses that privilege, as it would in the event of an interminable cold war in the Gulf, then the curtains could come down.

Which is why, if they wanted to badly enough, Le Drian and Tillerson could end this conflict tomorrow. Qatar’s foreign policy has been concerning for the past decade. It has backed virtually every losing side in the Arab world, and caused a significant amount of destruction in the process. In Syria, Libya, Egypt and Yemen, Qatar has turned a blind eye to the funding of Islamic revolutionaries with the financial muscle to topple incumbent regimes. Its motives are clear; influence over the emergent republics, as it had in Egypt for a year under Mohamed Morsi. But as we review the success of this policy from the perspective of 2017, it seems clear that all that has been achieved is a combination of civil unrest and civil war. The experiment has failed.

Moreover, the Coalition is not going to lift sanctions until Doha suspends its support for the Muslim Brotherhood. When Western leaders survey the Gulf and consider who they should support, they observe two things: firstly, that the foreign policy of the Quartet is much more aligned with their own (it doesn’t seem likely to me that any European or American company would prefer to see a revolution in Dubai instead of a continuation of the present arrangement), and secondly, that Qatar would fold immediately if they applied any significant pressure. The Al Thani ruling family has bet its fortune and power on trans-Atlantic support; it is simply not credible that they would turn to the West’s enemies in the event that an ultimatum was issued. Doha might even welcome an excuse to pause its costly and ineffective programmes. Even if that involves some short term embarrassment. It is hardly going to lose support at home, with the highest GDP per capita in the world.

It would be necessary to make sure that the Coalition understands that it will have to pay a price for decisive Western intervention. The world will be a more dangerous place if our allies get the impression they can freely bully any smaller rival, knowing that the West will always come down on their side. That is however no great hurdle to action; it might even be a positive thing if we can at the same time negotiate greater contributions to counter-terrorism or refugee funding.

Unfortunately the reason why none of this is likely to happen is partly that the West has lost a lot of confidence in its ability to resolve issues in the Middle East since 2003, and partly because it fears for its interests in Doha and the handsome Qatari contributions in Western capitals. This cautious assessment is wrong and will be more harmful to Qatar and the aforementioned interests. The Quartet has no incentive to relent, it can’t afford to and will profit from commercial uncertainty in Doha the longer this drags on. If the West really wants this to end now, it must tell Qatar to reform its foreign policy or face sanctions from a more threatening ally.

Geoffrey Hoon was the UK defence secretary from 1999 to 2005.