Cain and able?

As the GOP presidential candidates meet for their 10th debate, Herman Cain must prove he's more than

Either he's the Great Survivor, or this could be the beginning of the end of Herman Cain's unlikely campaign for the Presidency of the United States.

Thus far, the former pizza mogul has managed to coast a series of gaffes and scandals that would have felled most candidates. Now, there's a debate over whether these latest allegations of sexual harassment could prove a tipping point for the campaign that's surprised everyone who thought they could predict how the Republican race would turn out.

Look at the numbers, and Cain appears to be in a pretty comfortable position. The latest poll of polls from Real Clear Politics puts him at 25 per cent; ahead of Mitt Romney on 23. And that's after what must have been the worst week of his political life.

The reason is partly Cain's unashamed populism, coupled with his traditional conservative values that appeal so much to the Tea Party-kind of politics that has become mainstream Republicanism across much of the country.

As John Cassidy writes in the New Yorker, Cain -- more than anyone else in the GOP field -- has discovered a way of connecting with all those disillusioned Americans, fearful about the future and longing not for doom-mongering, but optimism. The businessman who proclaims himself a "problem solver, not a politician" sounds a surer bet than someone mired in the old-style partisan bickering which has given Washington such a bad name.

TA Frank, who profiles Cain for the upcoming edition of the New York Times Magazine, depicts a candidate who just seems to plough on regardless. Former staff members, he writes, describe him as a man with

zero interest in policy. They speak of events canceled at the last minute to accommodate any available television interview. They speak of unrelenting self-absorption, even by the standards of a politician. But they don't speak of someone who can't win.

So far, at least, this winning streak has kept Cain's supporters on his side -- prepared to carry on giving him the benefit of the doubt. But how long can that go on, as more women come forward, prepared to go on the record with their claims of sexual harassment? Surely daily press conferences denying scandals do not a Presidential candidate make?

Last night Cain gave his first real press conference on the subject, allowing reporters to ask questions -- then appearing on ABC, to reject the latest allegations from two women, Sharon Bialek and Karen Kraushaar, and insist that it wouldn't derail his campaign.

He brought along his very own celebrity attorney, claimed he was doing it all "for the children" and denied everything, point blank. "I can categorically say I have never acted inappropriately with anyone. Period." he said. Once again, he blamed the media and something he called the "Democratic Machine" for drumming it all up in the first place.

But tonight, as the GOP candidates meet for their 10th debate in Michigan, it's a crucial moment for Cain. His performance tonight could determine whether he can draw a line under the sexual harassment allegations and start talking about something else. It's a moment for his supporters to decide if they're justified in staying loyal. Or, Herman Cain could turn out to be just another maverick candidate whose novelty and hubris proves unable to stay the course.

Felicity Spector is a senior producer at Channel 4 News.

Photo: Getty
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Which CLPs are nominating who in the 2016 Labour leadership contest?

Who is getting the most CLP nominations in the race to be Labour leader?

Jeremy Corbyn, the sitting Labour leader, has been challenged by Owen Smith, the MP for Pontypridd. Now that both are on the ballot, constituency Labour parties (CLPs) can give supporting nominations. Although they have no direct consequence on the race, they provide an early indication of how the candidates are doing in the country at large. While CLP meetings are suspended for the duration of the contest, they can meet to plan campaign sessions, prepare for by-elections, and to issue supporting nominations. 

Scottish local parties are organised around Holyrood constituencies, not Westminster constituencies. Some Westminster parties are amalgamated - where they have nominated as a bloc, we have counted them as their separate constituencies, with the exception of Northern Ireland, where Labour does not stand candidates. To avoid confusion, constitutencies with dual language names are listed in square [] brackets. If the constituency party nominated in last year's leadership race, that preference is indicated in italics.  In addition, we have listed the endorsements of trade unions and other affliates alongside the candidates' names.

Jeremy Corbyn (46)

Bournemouth East (did not nominate in 2015)

Bournemouth West (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Brent Central (nominated Jeremy Corbn in 2015)

Bristol East (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Cheltenham (did not nominate in 2015)

Chesterfield (did not nominate in 2015)

Chippenham (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Colchester (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Crewe and Nantwich (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Croydon Central (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Clwyd West (did not nominate in 2015)

Devizes (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

East Devon (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

East Surrey (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Erith and Thamesmead (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Folkestone & Hythe (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Grantham and Stamford (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Hampstead and Kilburn (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Harrow East (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Hastings & Rye (did not nominate in 2015)

Herefore and South Herefordshire (did not nominate in 2015)

Kensington & Chelsea (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Lancaster & Fleetwood (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Liverpool West Derby (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Leeds North West (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Morecambe and Lunesdale (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Milton Keynes North (did not nominate in 2015)

Milton Keynes South (did not nominate in 2015)

Old Bexley and Sidcup (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Newton Abbott (nominated Liz Kendall in 2015)

Newark (did not nominate in 2015)

North Somerset (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Pudsey (nominated Andy Bunrnham in 2015)

Reading West (did not nominate in 2015)

Reigate (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Romford (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Salisbury (did not nominate in 2015)

Southampton Test (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

South Cambridgeshire  (did not nominate in 2015)

South Thanet (did not nominate in 2015)

South West Bedfordshire (did not nominate in 2015)

Sutton & Cheam (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Sutton Coldfield (did not nominate in 2015)

Swansea West (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Tewkesbury (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Westmoreland and Lunesdale (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Wokingham (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Owen Smith (12)

Altrincham and Sale West (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Battersea (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Blaneau Gwent (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Bow and Bethnal Green (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Reading East (did not nominate in 2015)

Richmond Park (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Runnymede and Weybridge (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Streatham (nominated Liz Kendall in 2015)

Vauxhall (nominated Liz Kendall in 2015)

West Ham (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Westminster North (nominated Yvette Coooper in 2015)

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