Three reasons Cain can beat Romney

The surprise front-runner continues to pick up momentum.

The Washington Post has published an article, based on the findings of the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, laying out three reasons why Herman Cain can beat Mitt Romney to the GOP 2012 presidential nomination.

First, argue Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake, he is already a top-tier contender. The survey -- which is of prospective Republican primary voters -- puts him at the head of the pack with 27 per cent support compared to Romney's 23 per cent (Rick Perry trails in third place on just 16 per cent). This remarkable surge in popularity -- the same poll in August had him on just 5 per cent -- is due in no small part to his strong performances in the last two or three televised debates.

Second, he still has time to define himself as a candidate. Almost a quarter of Republicans have yet to form an opinion of him and, of those who have, more than half view him favourably. In contrast, most have made up their minds about Romney and Perry (94 per cent and 89 per cent respectively).

Third, as an unreconstructed conservative, Cain appeals to the GOP base in a way Romney emphatically does not - and ideology matters. 46 per cent of Republican voters say a candidate's "values" are more important than their chances of beating President Obama. What is more, those most likely to vote in the primaries sit well to the right of the American mainstream.

Of course, all this bodes well for the Democrats. If Cain is pitched against Obama next year, it is not hard to imagine his Tea Party affiliations, political inexperience and idiosyncratic personality combining to secure a second term for the current occupant of the White House.

James Maxwell is a Scottish political journalist. He is based between Scotland and London.

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Britain is running out of allies as it squares up to Russia

For whatever reason, Donald Trump is going to be no friend of an anti-Russia foreign policy.

The row over Donald Trump and that dossier rumbles on.

Nothing puts legs on a story like a domestic angle, and that the retired spy who compiled the file is a one of our own has excited Britain’s headline writers. The man in question, Christopher Steele, has gone to ground having told his neighbour to look after his cats before vanishing.

Although the dossier contains known errors, Steele is regarded in the intelligence community as a serious operator not known for passing on unsubstantiated rumours, which is one reason why American intelligence is investigating the claims.

“Britain's role in Trump dossier” is the Telegraph’s splash, “The ‘credible’ ex-MI6 man behind Trump Russia report” is the Guardian’s angle, “British spy in hiding” is the i’s splash.

But it’s not only British headline writers who are exercised by Mr Steele; the Russian government is too. “MI6 officers are never ex,” the Russian Embassy tweeted, accusing the UK of “briefing both ways - against Russia and US President”. “Kremlin blames Britain for Trump sex storm” is the Mail’s splash.

Elsewhere, Crispin Blunt, the chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, warns that relations between the United Kingdom and Russia are as “bad as they can get” in peacetime.

Though much of the coverage of the Trump dossier has focused on the eyecatching claims about whether or not the President-Elect was caught in a Russian honeytrap, the important thing, as I said yesterday, is that the man who is seven days from becoming President of the United States, whether through inclination or intimidation, is not going to be a reliable friend of the United Kingdom against Russia.

Though Emanuel Macron might just sneak into the second round of the French presidency, it still looks likely that the final choice for French voters will be an all-Russia affair, between Francois Fillon and Marine Le Pen.

For one reason or another, Britain’s stand against Russia looks likely to be very lonely indeed.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.