Three reasons Cain can beat Romney

The surprise front-runner continues to pick up momentum.

The Washington Post has published an article, based on the findings of the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, laying out three reasons why Herman Cain can beat Mitt Romney to the GOP 2012 presidential nomination.

First, argue Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake, he is already a top-tier contender. The survey -- which is of prospective Republican primary voters -- puts him at the head of the pack with 27 per cent support compared to Romney's 23 per cent (Rick Perry trails in third place on just 16 per cent). This remarkable surge in popularity -- the same poll in August had him on just 5 per cent -- is due in no small part to his strong performances in the last two or three televised debates.

Second, he still has time to define himself as a candidate. Almost a quarter of Republicans have yet to form an opinion of him and, of those who have, more than half view him favourably. In contrast, most have made up their minds about Romney and Perry (94 per cent and 89 per cent respectively).

Third, as an unreconstructed conservative, Cain appeals to the GOP base in a way Romney emphatically does not - and ideology matters. 46 per cent of Republican voters say a candidate's "values" are more important than their chances of beating President Obama. What is more, those most likely to vote in the primaries sit well to the right of the American mainstream.

Of course, all this bodes well for the Democrats. If Cain is pitched against Obama next year, it is not hard to imagine his Tea Party affiliations, political inexperience and idiosyncratic personality combining to secure a second term for the current occupant of the White House.

James Maxwell is a Scottish political journalist. He is based between Scotland and London.

BFM TV
Show Hide image

Emmanuel Macron's "moralisation of politics" comes at a heavy price for his allies

"Fake" jobs in French politics, season 3 episode 1.

Something is rotten in the state of France. No political party – at least none that existed before 2016 – seems immune to the spread of investigations into “fake” or shady parliamentary jobs. The accusations sank centre-right candidate François Fillon’s presidential campaign, and led to Marine Le Pen losing her parliamentary immunity in the European parliament (and proxy wars within her party, the National Front). Both deny the allegations. Now the investigations have made their way to the French government, led by Edouard Philippe, Emmanuel Macron’s Prime Minister.

On Wednesday morning, justice minister François Bayrou and secretary of state for European affairs Marielle de Sarnez announced their resignation from Philippe’s cabinet. They followed defence minister Sylvie Goulard’s resignation the previous day. The three politicians belonged not to Macron's party, En Marche!, but the centrist MoDem party. Bayrou, the leader, had thrown his weight behind Macron after dropping his own presidential bid in April.

The disappearance of three ministers leaves Emmanuel Macron’s cross-party government, which includes politicians from centre left and centre right parties, without a centrist helm. (Bayrou, who has run several times for the French presidency and lost, is the original “neither left nor right” politician – just with a less disruptive attitude, and a lot less luck). “I have decided not to be part of the next government,” he told the AFP.

Rumours had been spreading for weeks. Bayrou, who was last part of a French government as education minister from 1993 to 1997, had been under pressure since 9 June, when he was included in a preliminary investigation into “embezzlement”. The case revolves around whether the parliamentary assistants of MoDem's MEPs, paid for by the European Parliament, were actually working full or part-time for the party. The other two MoDem ministers who resigned, along with Bayrou, also have assistants under investigation.

Bayrou has denied the allegations. He has declared that there “never was” any case of “fake” jobs within his party and that it would be “easy to prove”. All the same, by the time he resigned, his position as justice minister has become untenable, not least because he was tasked by Macron with developing key legislation on the “moralisation of politics”, one of the new President’s campaign pledges. On 1 June, Bayrou unveiled the new law, which plans a 10-year ban from public life for any politician convicted of a crime or offence regarding honesty and transparency in their work.

Bayrou described his decision to resign as a sacrifice. “My name was never pronounced, but I was the target to hit to attack the government’s credibility,” he said, declaring he would rather “protect this law” by stepping down. The other two ministers also refuted the allegations, and gave similar reasons for resigning. 

Macron’s movement-turned-unstoppable-machine, En Marche!, remains untainted from accusations of the sort. Their 350 new MPs are younger, more diverse than is usual in France – but they are newcomers in politics. Which is exactly why Macron had sought an alliance with experienced Bayrou in the first place.

0800 7318496