Rick Perry stumbles on Pakistan question

Republican frontrunner struggles to answer question on Pakistan and nuclear weapons.

Last night's Republican debate in Orlando was most notable for Rick Perry's inept response to a question on Pakistan. Asked how he would respond if he received a phone call at 3am telling him that Pakistan had lost control of its nuclear weapons, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination mumbled something about building a "relationship in the region" before criticising the US for not selling more arms to Pakistan's nuclear rival India:

"When we had the opportunity to sell India the upgraded F-16s we chose not to do that. We did the same thing with Taiwain. The point is, our allies need to understand clearly that we are their friends, we will be standing by there with them. Today we don't have those allies in that region".

In fact, as rival candidate Rick Santorum said: "Working with allies at that point is the last thing we want to do. We want to work in that country to make sure the problem is defused". Just as embarrassing was Perry's reference to Pakistan as "the Pakistani country".

True, the question was a hypothetical one but this was an issue on which the Texas governor needed to display some heft. And he failed to do so. Kansas governor Sam Brownback, a Perry supporter, later told the Weekly Standard: "I thought the initial response was accurate ... You gotta have a relationship to know what's going on. I've worked with the Pakistanis, and particularly in Pakistan you need a relationship, because the country's a pretty unstable place, and it's run by the army. You gotta know the guy that's the head of the place."

So that's all clear then.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.