Pawlenty out, Perry in, Bachmann to win?

At least you can't say the Republican contest is turning out to be dull.

The former governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty has announced he's ending his bid to be the next President of the United States. It was a pretty inevitable decision -- after he came a distant third in Saturday's Iowa straw poll -- and today he admitted "we needed to get some lift to continue on, and to have a pathway forward. That didn't happen."

It'll be a huge disappointment for Pawlenty who'd been traipsing around some of the key battleground states as long ago as 2008. But he failed to raise enough money and although he'd been a popular Governor in Minnesota his personality never managed to capture the imagination of the presidential race.

With some major donors already expressing their reservations the straw poll was his last chance to prove he could connect with voters -- and he didn't pull it off.

The winner in Iowa, perhaps unsurprisingly, was right wing conservative Michelle Bachmann -- one of the founders of the Tea Party caucus on Capitol Hill. Unsurprising because Iowa's her home state and she proved to be a master of the unrelenting, anti-Obama message.

Of course victory in this rather unrepresentative, totally non-binding election is no guarantee of anything much. Just ask Mike Huckabee who aced it back in 2007. But Bachmann managed to organise a pretty vibrant grassroots effort -- now she needs to overcome the sceptics who think she's far too polarising a figure to turn that into a nationwide success. "Now it's on to all 50 states," she proclaimed yesterday -- although in the next breath, admitted she'd be concentrating in Iowa and New Hampshire for the time being.

It's certainly no shoo-in for her or anyone else -- after a late entry into the GOP nomination race. Texas Governor Rick Perry only made his official announcement last night, but he's already being talked about as a front-runner, even the putative nominee.

His conservative, Christian credentials are no less strong and right from the get-go, he's been focussing on his record, with more than ten years of experience governing Texas. His number one issue right now: jobs, with the slogan "It's time to get America working again".

What he needs to prove, is that he's got the credibility and the charisma to win over not just the conservative right but mainstream activists and voters disillusioned with President Obama. A tough challenge, from a standing start.

At least you can't say the Republican contest is turning out to be dull.

Felicity Spector is a senior producer at Channel 4 News

Photo: Getty Images
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Meet the remarkable British woman imprisoned for fighting against Isis

The treatment of Silhan Özçelik shows how confused British policy towards the Middle East has become. 

Last week, a British court sentenced a woman to prison for attempting to join fighters in the Middle East. Silhan Özçelik, an 18-year-old from Highbury, London was sentenced to 21 months for her part in “preparing terrorist acts” under the Terrorism Act 2006. The judge called her a “stupid, feckless and deeply dishonest young woman”.  What all of this misses out is the most extraordinary fact: that Özçelik was not convicted for going to fight for the Islamic State, but for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party – better known as the PKK, one of the only effective and consistent opponents of Isis since the war began.

Volunteering to fight in foreign wars – so long as they are long ago enough – is a celebrated tradition in Britain. In the late 1930s, while the Spanish Republic battled on against a fascist coup led by General Franco, tens of thousands of volunteers from all over the world went to fight for the International Brigades, including 2,500 from the UK. They included future celebrities such as writer George Orwell and actor James Robertson Justice, and commemorative plaques and memorials can now be seen all over the country

Like the International Brigade volunteers, Özçelik allegedly volunteered to fight for an embattled state facing military defeat at the hands of a far-right insurgency. The combat units she might have joined have been the subject of moving portraits in the Guardian and even praise on Fox News. The PKK is a secular socialist organisation, with a streak of libertarianism and its own feminist movements. But because of its military opposition to the often brutal Turkish treatment of the Kurds, the western powers list the PKK as a terrorist organisation; and would-be heroes like Silhan Özçelik are detained as criminals by the British state.

On one level, what Özçelik’s conviction represents is a change in how the state relates to ordinary citizens who fight. In 1936, the rise of fascism was something on our doorstep, which was opposed most fervently not by official western governments but by ordinary folk, dangerous far left subversives and free spirited writers who sailed to Spain – often in spite of their own governments. In today’s wars in the Middle East, the state is absolutely determined to maintain its monopoly on the right to sanction violence.

What Orwell and other volunteers understood was that while western governments might promote values like liberty and deplore the rise of tyranny, they were also duplicitous and unreliable when it came to prioritising the defeat of fascism over the narrow interests of nation and profit. Then as now, western governments were  deeply uneasy about the idea of ordinary people taking up arms and intervening in global affairs, or deciding – by force – who governs them. If the Terrorism Act 2006 had applied in 1936, Orwell would surely have been arrested at Dover and sent to prison.

More pressingly for the current situation, the persecution of the PKK should make you think twice about the motivations and outcomes for military intervention in Syria. Cameron is on a march to war, and, following the Paris attacks, much of the political establishment is now lining up to support him.

At the same time, our court system is imprisoning and persecuting young women who try to take up arms against Isis. It is doing so at the behest not of our own national security, which has never been threatened by the PKK, but that of Turkey. Turkey’s military is actively targeting Kurdish forces, and has recently stepped up these attacks. There is a wealth of evidence, not least its behaviour during the recent siege of Kobane, to suggest that Turkey – Britain’s only formal NATO ally in the region – is tacitly collaborating with Isis in an attempt to defeat both Assad and the Kurds.

As the government rushes to war in Syria, much of the media attention will focus on Jeremy Corbyn’s awkward task of holding his anti-war line while persuading his party and Shadow Cabinet not to split over the issue. Others will focus, rightly, on the complexity of the situation in the region and the question of who western air-strikes are really there to support: is it Assad, the murderous dictator whose regime has itself been linked to the rise of Isis; Turkey, which is seemingly focussed entirely on defeating Assad and the Kurds; or the soup of organisations – including the Al-Qaeda franchise in Syria – which constitute the anti-regime rebels?

But Özçelik’s conviction should also raise a more fundamental concern: that the contradictions and complications that we are so used to associating with the Middle East lie at the heart of British and western policy as well. If the British state persecutes, rather than supports, the few secular and progressive organisations in the region who are fighting Isis, whose interests is it really serving? And if we don’t trust those interests, how much trust can we really place in it to act on our behalf in Syria?

You can sign a petition calling for Silhan Özçelik’s release here, and a petition calling for the decriminalisation of the PKK here.