Leaders agree debt ceiling deal -- but Obama's crisis isn't over
US president announces deal that will raise debt ceiling and slash spending by trillions.
By Samira Shackle Published 01 August 2011 10:07
Barack Obama has announced that Republican and Democratic leaders have reached an agreement on raising the US debt ceiling by $900bn.
A second increase of between $1.2tn and $1.5tn would be available subject to a second vote of disapproval by Congress. In return for this increase in the government's borrowing limit, Congress will commit to deep spending cuts, reducing the deficit by a roughly equivalent amount over the next decade. A special bipartisan committee will be set up to agree areas to be cut.
The deadline for raising the debt cap -- currently at $14.3tn -- is tomorrow. While this deal marks a significant breakthrough after days of deadlock, it has yet to be voted on. Even as Obama announced the measures at the White House, the Speaker in the House of Representatives, John Boehner, was trying to sell the proposal to House Republicans. The hardline elements of his party are likely to vote against the bill, meaning that Boehner must make the deal sound appealing to Republicans without alienating the Democrats whose vote will also be needed to pass it.
Obama said that while it was not the deal he wanted, it would make a "serious down payment" on the deficit, and would prevent another crisis in a year's time. This is something Democrats were keen to avoid in the run up to the 2012 election.
While attention is now focused on getting the bill through the House in the face of intransigent right-wingers, many Democrats are also unhappy at the level of fiscal tightening the bill will involve. Mirroring the debate in Europe, economists have argued that slashing government spending at a time of dismal growth will depress the economy further.
In addition to this concern about the content of the bill are serious worries about the political message this debacle sends to the Tea Party representatives who precipitated, or at least worsened, the crisis. Obama's refusal to use legal manoeuvring to side-step the crisis -- or even to invoke the possibility to strengthen his bargaining position -- could well empower those set on derailing his presidency and blindly pursuing their own small-state agenda. Paul Krugman, describing the deal as an "abject surrender" by the President, expresses the view of many on the left:
Make no mistake about it, what we're witnessing here is a catastrophe on multiple levels.
It is, of course, a political catastrophe for Democrats, who just a few weeks ago seemed to have Republicans on the run over their plan to dismantle Medicare; now Mr. Obama has thrown all that away. And the damage isn't over: there will be more choke points where Republicans can threaten to create a crisis unless the president surrenders, and they can now act with the confident expectation that he will.
In the long run, however, Democrats won't be the only losers. What Republicans have just gotten away with calls our whole system of government into question. After all, how can American democracy work if whichever party is most prepared to be ruthless, to threaten the nation's economic security, gets to dictate policy? And the answer is, maybe it can't.
Both houses will vote on the deal today.
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9 comments
Hard to argue with Krugman's analysis.
Obama is going to have trouble asserting himself. Somehow he has to persuade those who voted for Tea Party candidates that their refusal to compromise or negotiate is damaging to US democracy.
The Republicans - or the Tea Party element of them - have been holding the economy hostage for political gain. It's a bargaining chip and not only are they holding the economy and Goverment hostage but also the Republicans too with their our way or no way philosophy which is nothing about the ordinary man and woman on the street but everything to do with their own politial ends, less government, no Medicare, no food checks and the like. Crazy conservatism at it's best and one our own Cameron would fare well in.
As for the bipartisan committee to decide on areas of cuts, tripartisan would be more apt with the Tea Party element of the Republicans and I dread to think what would be 'agreed'.
Couldn't Obama have just signed an executive order on raising the ceiling anyway?
Pretty unbelievable stuff. Obama has shown weakness no doubt. However faced with these lunatics I understand why he's backed down to a point. It does appear that a fair amount of them would have been happy to flush the world economy down the toilet to stop ordinary people getting medical treatment.
You've got to say Krugman is right. It leaves serious questions over the American system of governance that the president can be held to ransom like this.
The level of govt. spending in the US is currently at approx. 24-26% GDP, which is much higher than it was during Eisenhower's two terms (in reply to Nalliah Thayabharan's erroneous comment). The dramatic increase in the annual deficit and accumulated debt has its origins in the irresponsible Bush tax cuts, the unfunded prescription drug benefit program (also Bush's), and two unfunded wars (Bush yet again). When the bottom fell out of the economy at the end of Bush's second term, funding TARP and the indispensable stimulus spending that Obama and the Democrats got through the Congress, as well as paying for a big increase in unemployment benefits (more than 9% unemployed), and sundry other expenses associated with preventing the meltdown of the US and world economies helped bring the debt up to its current level.
If you examine the compromise debt limit law closely, you will learn that practically all the cuts are pushed way off until the end of the 10 year period. For example, only about $20-30 billion in actual cuts will occur this year -- hardly a sum to get worked up about, in a $4 trillion annual budget (pace Krugman; you should slow down and take a breath, the hyperventilating is bad for your health). Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security recipients are protected from cuts, if and when they occur. Tax increases and other spending cuts are ostensibly on the table, but remain uncertain. The so-called triggers will impose spending caps and cuts, in the event that the super committee of Democrats and Republicans appointed under the law can't agree to a mix of cuts and taxes, and if imposed, will hurt Defense spending as much as domestic spending. But, and here is what people unfamiliar with the wily ways of Washington politicians don't yet understand, the back-ended cuts won't come into effect until several future Congresses have come and gone. Nothing binds these Congresses from repudiating (or more likely, simply ignoring) the law that has just been passed. Happened before and will most likely happen in this instance as well. As for Obama now playing on Tea Party ground, well, perhaps. It is telling, however, that the American public doesn't support the Tea Party; they rather like Obama's approach, his reasonableness, and his patience. As for getting re-elected, he is now free of the threat of repeating this debt limit farce next year, and, on the well-tested US political principle that nobody can't beat somebody, should sail through to a second term. Then we can tote up the winners and losers in this fracas.
I don't know the full extent of a US President's powers. However Obama certainly looks weak. If his powers as President and Commander in Chief allow it, he should have declared a State of Emergency, reduced US Government costs first by suspending the salaries and expenses of all Republican politicians refusing to approve the fiscal ceiling rise and cut all fedral aid to Big Business. I suppose such action would lead to his impeachment, given the Right's greater willingness to play "hardball". But at least he wouldn't have just rolled over and taken it.
Suppose there is that argument. He could have used whatever
there was available to roll over the Republicans, sacrifice himself and at least make a statement then he would have looked a man of principle.
As it is, he's caved in to right wing nutcases whose primary objective is to hack away at entitlements for those who don't happen to be wealthy.
Is Obama giving in to the Republican establishment by agreeing to in this sharply-defined compromise? Or is the President playing the long game hoping the T Party will act as a detonator, or rogue elephant, within the GOP?
Obama certainly has a 'poker face'; is he hoping the Republicans will become overconfident and overplay their hand?
Sucker Bet
For everyone who's confused about Obama's powers in this, here's a summary:
If no bill was agreed to by tomorrow night, Obama could legally declare a "national emergency" and then raise the debt. He could have also used the 14th Amendment. But many think that's unconstitutional.
Why didn't he sign an Executive Order to raise the ceiling and be done with it? Because that would mess up his "nice centrist guy" image. He's running for re-election with no opposition and millions so far in campaign funds. Just like 2008, he's being positioned by the party Powers that Be. Now he can say under my leadership the parties came together to save the country and so on. Lots of soundbites yet to come.
Is this a solution? No it's not. Both Obama and Cameron refuse to admit that the global toxic debt (which includes national debt) can never be paid back. Which means that all major Western countries should write off the debt and start over.
If they did that, the banks will scream. Wall Street and the hedge funds will all threaten to move to Geneva. The Tories will lose lots of campaign donors.
However, if we don't write the debt off, do you seriously believe that the politicians will ever solve this? No they won't.
Lowest level of domestic spending since Eisenhower. The population has grown 100 million and US will spend less. But the non domestic spending like the war budget is at an all time high!
Increasing the revenue is the solution to the debt crisis. Increasing the debt limit won't solve the debt crisis. National debt is managemable so long as the country's economy can grow its way out of it. But that’s impossible now. US Dollar has diminished in buying power from 2002, by more than 50%. That is real “inflation”. The debt problem has been with America since 1776. The extreme escalation of debt starts with Reagan 11%, Bush drove it off the cliff 20% and then handed Obama a bailout package for the American Banks. Obama's only consideration has been how best to position himself for the 2012 Presidential election!