Beltway Briefing

The top stories from US politics today.

1. Michele Bachmann has released the first election advert of her campaign. In it she plays Bachmann Bingo, reeling off the Bachmann facts that are almost mandatory for any report on the Minnesotan congresswoman. Five kids? Check. 23 foster kids? Check. Tax lawyer? Check. It does have a jaunty soundtrack though.

 

2. Barack Obama's polling numbers were flat during June according to the latest Gallup poll, as the sheen from killing Bin Laden wears off and the US's stagnant economy takes its toll on voters.

Barack Obama June 2011 poll numbers. 

3. Obama met with leaders from Congress for a debt summit in the White House today, with the aim of raising the US debt ceiling to prevent a potential default - the dealine for which is 2 August. Obama is expected to propose cutting the country's deficit by up to $4tr (£2.5tr) over a decade. The US currently runs an estimated $1.5 trillion (£932 billion) annual budget deficit.

4.Mitt Romney enjoyed some facetime with David Cameron today, according to his Twitter account. The PM appeared anxious not to be seen with the Repbulican Romney, and did not make a song and dance about the visit. Perhaps he is still mindful of the distatse triggered in some quarters by photos of Cameron and John McCain in 2008. Whether this one will prove as embarassing remains to be seen.

David Cameron with Mitt Romney 

Getty Images.
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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.