Beltway Briefing

The top five stories from US politics today.

1. Bill Clinton has passed judgement on the Republic field of candidates, offering praise for Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman and even Michele Bachmann. On Romney, Clinton said:

Romney's a much better candidate than he was last time, because he's not apologizing for signing the health care bill. He's got another creative way of saying we oughta repeal Obamacare, but that's prob'ly the price of gettin' the nomination.

On Huntsman, the former president said:

"Huntsman hasn't said what he's for yet, but I just kinda like him. [laughter] He looks authentic -- he looks like a real guy. [laughter] I mean, a real human being. I like his family, I like his kind of iconoclastic way. And he was a pretty good governor. And he wasn't a right-wing ideologue.

Clinton also offered surprising praise for Bachmann, and argued that her main strengths are her backstory and the support she gets from the right of the party:

Bachmann's been a better candidate than I thought she'd be, and I don't agree with her on nearly anything. But she's got a very compelling personal story, and she gotta lot of juice, and she turns [on] a lot of those anti-government crowd.

2. A Twitter feed belonging to Fox News announced the assassination of Barack Obama after being hacked by members of the hacking collective Anonymous. The hackers sent out tweets that said: "BREAKING NEWS: President @BarackObama assassinated, 2 gunshot wounds have proved too much. It's a sad 4th for #america. #obamadead RIP". (Just to be clear, he's not dead.)

3. Happy 4th of July! The US is 235 today. To celebrate its birthday, the US is teetering on the edge of default, but there is some good news. The US debt impasse moved forward an inch, when a number of prominent Republicans agreed to the principle of some "revenue raisers" (or tax increases, as they used to be called). John Cornyn, a Senator for Texas, and John McCain, a Senator for Arizona, both revealed that they would happy to see some tax perks removed in order to increase government revenues. Congress has until 2 August to decide whether or not it will increase the US's debt ceiling. If the ceiling is not increase, the US will default. This is bad news if you or your company are reliant on any of the 80m bills the US government pays every month.

4. The Obama administration has made a push for greater fuel efficiency, arguing that US cars made in 2025 should be able to do 56.2 miles to the gallon. The auto industry, however, is less keen on these stringent targets. Obama had previously pushed through targets of 35.5 miles to the gallon as a condition of an industry-wide bailout. As car makers have recovered, their willingness to listen to government diktat has reduced.

5. Herman Cain has joined Newt Gingrich and become the latest Republican candidate to face a spate of resignations from his campaign team in the crucial first caucus state of Iowa. Cain's team is putting an optimistic spin on the walk outs, claiming that it is not a "Newt Gingrich situation" (charming). Cain spokeswoman Ellen Carmichael said: "We look forward to staffing up, and not just there. We're in a great financial position to continue to expand." Y'see, staff walkouts aren't a blow, they're an opportunity. I suppose you have to be an optimist by nature on Cain's campaign.

 

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When Donald Trump talks, remember that Donald Trump almost always lies

Anyone getting excited about a trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom should pay more attention to what Trump does, not what he says. 

Celebrations all round at the Times, which has bagged the first British newspaper interview with President-Elect Donald Trump.

Here are the headlines: he’s said that the EU has become a “vehicle for Germany”, that Nato is “obsolete” as it hasn’t focused on the big issue of the time (tackling Islamic terrorism), and that he expects that other countries will join the United Kingdom in leaving the European Union.

But what will trigger celebrations outside of the News Building is that Trump has this to say about a US-UK trade deal: his administration will ““work very hard to get it done quickly and done properly”. Time for champagne at Downing Street?

When reading or listening to an interview with Donald Trump, don’t forget that this is the man who has lied about, among other things, who really paid for gifts to charity on Celebrity Apprentice, being named Michigan’s Man of the Year in 2011, and making Mexico pay for a border wall between it and the United States. So take everything he promises with an ocean’s worth of salt, and instead look at what he does.   

Remember that in the same interview, the President-Elect threatened to hit BMW with sanctions over its decision to put a factory in Mexico, not the United States. More importantly, look at the people he is appointing to fill key trade posts: they are not free traders or anything like it. Anyone waiting for a Trump-backed trade deal that is “good for the UK” will wait a long time.

And as chess champion turned Putin-critic-in-chief Garry Kasparov notes on Twitter, it’s worth noting that Trump’s remarks on foreign affairs are near-identical to Putin’s. The idea that Nato’s traditional purpose is obsolete and that the focus should be on Islamic terrorism, meanwhile, will come as a shock to the Baltic states, and indeed, to the 650 British soldiers who have been sent to Estonia and Poland as part of a Nato deployment to deter Russian aggression against those countries.

All in all, I wouldn’t start declaring the new President is good news for the UK just yet.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.