Beltway Briefing

The top five stories from US politics today.

1. Tim Pawlenty became the first Republican White House hopeful to start showing television adverts in Iowa, the state that holds the first contest in the presidential caucus and primary calendar. The 30-second advert was aired today, and will run til 3 July at a cost of $50,000.

Pawlenty is concentrating a lot resources in Iowa, where he needs a strong finish in February to win the GOP nomination. He formally announced his bit for the presidency at an event in Des Moines, Iowa, last month. He will spend about 15 days in the state next month ahead of an important straw poll in Ames on 13 August.

 

2. Michele Bachmann will also be descending on Iowa, where she will officially launch her presidential campaign on Monday. Several weeks of keeping a low profile mean that Bachmann is still riding the positive wave of her strong performance in last week's primary debate.

Her conservative credentials as the grassroots Tea Party candidate mean she is likely to do well in Iowa. The fact that she was born in the state and lived there until she was 12 will also help. The announcement might even take place in Waterloo, the place of her birth.

3. Republican women rushed to defend their party after a prominent Democrat said the party was waging "a war on women". Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Florida representative and the new chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, said last month that the opposition's anti-woman stance would "not only restore but possibly help us exceed the president's margin of victory in the next election."

It is obviously a sore point for a party whose top ranks are dominated by white men. Women -- notably not including Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann -- jumped to defend the GOP.

"The Republican agenda is indeed pro-woman," said Kristi Noem, representative for South Dakota. "It is pro-woman because it is pro-small business, pro-entrepreneur, pro-family and pro-economic growth."

Expect the battle for the female vote to heat up.

4. Predicatbly, the love-in between Jon Huntsman and President Barack Obama is coming to an end. Huntsman wrote that Obama was a "remarkable leader" after he was appointed to serve as ambassador to China. He distanecd himself from these words on Fox News' Hannity show last night:

 

Asked if he still thinks the president is a "remarkable leader", Huntsman said: "No. I think he has failed in a number of ways both in terms of economic governance and stewardship and also internationally."

He added: "I wrote that after I was appointed. I thought he was a remarkable leader for appointing a Republican to a position as important and sensitive as the U.S. ambassadorship to China."

5. Gabrielle Giffords, the Arizona congresswoman who was shot in the head in January, is to release a joint memoir with her husband, Mark Kelly.

They will collaborate with author Jeffrey Zaslow, who worked on Randy Pausch's bestselling The Last Lecture. The book will focus on their separate careers (Kelly is a Nasa astronaut) and their relationship, including the moment that Giffords was shot as she spoke to consituents in Tucson, in an attack which killed six people and injured 12. Kelly said:

After thinking about it, and talking about it, we decided it was the right thing to do to put our words and our voices on paper and tell our story from our point of view. It's been really touching to us to see how much support there is for Gabby and her recovery, and how much interest there is in how she's doing and her story.

Giffords, pictured below before and after the shooting, is undergoing outpatient treatment after being released from a Houston hospital last week.

giffords

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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Q&A: Would Brexit really move “the Jungle” to Dover?

The 2003 Le Touquet treaty was negotiated outside the EU.

What is David Cameron’s most recent claim about Britain leaving the EU?

The Prime Minister is claiming that Brexit could result in France ending the agreement by which British immigration officials carry out checks on those seeking to enter the UK in France.  

More specifically, Cameron thinks that a vote to leave the EU would give the French government an excuse to revoke the Le Touquet treaty of 2003, and that this would cause refugee camps akin to the Calais “Jungle” to spring up along the English south coast.

What’s the Le Touquet treaty?

In February 2003, Tony Blair went to the northern French resort of Le Touquet to try and persuade President Jacques Chirac to support British and American military action in Iraq. (He failed). 

Blair and Chirac hogged the headlines, but on the summit’s sidelines, Home Secretary David Blunkett and his French counterpart, an ambitious young politician named Nicolas Sarkozy, negotiated a treaty establishing juxtaposed controls at each country’s sea ports.

This agreement meant that British border police could set up and run immigration checkpoints at Calais – effectively moving the British border there from Dover. The treaty also enabled French border police to carry out checks in Dover.

British border police had already been operating at French Eurostar terminals since 2001, and manning the French entrance to the Eurotunnel since 1994.

What’s all this got to do with the EU?

Technically, nothing. The Le Touquet treaty is a bilateral agreement between the UK and France. Both countries happen to be member states of the EU, but the negotiations took place outside of the EU’s auspices.

That's why eurosceptics have reacted with such fury today. Arron Banks, the co-founder of Leave.EU, said the Prime Minister was “resorting to scaremongering”, while Ukip’s migration spokesperson, in a surprising role-reversal, said that Cameron’s argument was “based on fear, negativity, and a falsehood”.

Cameron’s claim appears to be that Brexit would represent such a profound shift in the UK’s relationship with other European states that it could offer France an excuse to end the agreement reached at Le Touquet. That is debatable, but any suggestion that the treaty would instantly become void in the event of a vote to leave is untrue.

Does France actually want to revoke the treaty?

Local politicians in Calais, and in particular the town’s mayor, have been arguing for months that the treaty should be abandoned. Le Monde has also criticised it. The current French Interior Minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, hinted today that he agreed, saying that a British vote to leave “will always result in countermeasures”.

On the BBC's Today programme this morning, Rob Whiteman, a former head of the UK Border Agency, said that it was “almost certain” that the treaty would end if the UK left the EU. He said that France has benefited less from the deal than it expected:

“I think at the time the French felt there would be an upside for them, in that if it was clear that people could not easily get to Britain it would stop Sangatte building up again. The camp was closed. But history has shown that not to be the case. The French authorities still have a huge amount of pressure on their side.”

That said, the French government receives money from the British to help police Calais and its camps, and various French officials have acknowledged that their ports would receive even more traffic if refugees and migrants believed that it was easier to travel  to the UK than before.

If the treaty ended, would “the Jungle” just move to Dover?

There’s little doubt that because of linguistic and familial ties, and perhaps the perception that the UK is more welcoming than France, many refugees and migrants would come to the UK as quickly as they could to claim asylum here.

Whiteman also said on Today that since the 2003 agreement, the annual number of asylum claims in the UK had declined from 80,000 to around 30,000. So the UK could expect a significant spike in claims if the treaty were to end.

But the British asylum process makes it unlikely that anything like “the Jungle” would spring up. Instead, those claiming asylum would be dispersed around the country or, if authorities are worried they would flee, held in an immigration detention centre.

Why is Cameron saying this now?

This looks suspiciously like one of the Tories' election strategist Lynton Crosby’s dead cats. That is, in an effort to distract his critics from the detail of the renegotiation, the PM has provoked a row about migrants and refugees. Cameron is clearly keen to move the debate on from the minutiae of different European agreements to bigger questions about security and terrorism. Though getting bogged down in competing interpretations of a treaty from 2003 may not be the best way to move onto that broader terrain.