US politics from outside the beltway

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"It's still the economy, stupid", part two

US voter confidence in the economy is falling rapidly. The good news for Obama? Well, once you're at

Economic confidence among US voters remains stubbornly low according to the latest Gallup poll. On the whole, US voters are less confident about the economy than they were in 2010.

Economic confidence is still down

In more bad news for Obama, fewer and fewer people think that things are getting better.

Gulp. Obama could be in trouble.

Unless a 9/11 style catastrophe interrupts the election process, 2012 will be fought on the economy. This makes polls like the above very, very important.

Mitt Romney's campaign, for instance, has focused so far almost entirely on unemployment - and with great success. Despite misgivings among Republican supporters about his religion and healthcare reform support for Romney is strong and, more importantly, it is increasing. While other campaigns have stuttered - particularly those of Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty - Romney has stayed out in front. It is fair to assume that this is, in part, because Romney is seen as a safe pair of hands on the economy.

How can Obama fight against this? The only bright spot for Obama is the fact that, well, things can't get much worse. There is such pessimism among voters currently that any improvement will improve Obama's polling numbers, which, while not great, are not terrible either. If the economy does pick up from its current slump, Obama will be the main political beneficiary.

Things can better. And for Obama's sake, they better.