Beltway Briefing

The top five stories from US politics today, featuring Bachmann, Romney, Obama and Palin.

1. Michele Bachmann launched her bid for president (for the second time) in Waterloo, Iowa. Bachmann used the speech to emphasise her Tea Party roots. "We can win in 2012 and we will. Our voice has been growing louder and stronger. And it is made up of Americans from all walks of life like a three-legged stool. It's the peace through strength Republicans, and I'm one of them, it's fiscal conservatives, and I'm one of them, and it's social conservatives, and I'm one of them. It's the Tea Party movement and I'm one of them." She also repeated her line from the first major debate that President Obama os a "one-term president". To read her full speech, go here.

2. Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann are almost neck and neck in the race for Iowa, according to a poll in the Des Moines Register. Romney received 23 per cent, while Bachmann received 22 per cent. Bachmann, however, received almost twice as many second choice votes as Romney, hinting at the surprisingly broad appeal of the Minnesotan congresswoman. The pair are way ahead of the rest of the Republican field, however. Herman Cain was the only other contender to break into double digits, receiving 10 per cent. The poll will make grim reading for the Jon Huntsman camp, however - the former governor received just 2 per cent.

3. Barack Obama will speak to the majority and minority leaders of the house later today in a bid to solve the current impasse on the US's debt. The US will default on its debt in August, unless congress can agree to raise the current debt limit. The Republicans and Democrats are currently involved in a game of chicken, as neither party wants to be seen as fiscally slack or too tax-happy with a presidential election on the horizon. A poll in the Des Moines Register, meanwhile, revealed that 49 per cent of voters would not back a candidate who advocated raising the debt threshold.

Spot the difference.

4. New York became the sixth and most populous state to legalise gay marriage, after the New York state senate passed the bill by 33 to 29 on Saturday. The bill received cross-party support on its way, with one Republican senator declaring: "You get to the point where you evolve in your life where everything isn't black and white, good and bad, and you try to do the right thing. You might not like that. You might be very cynical about that. Well, fuck it, I don't care what you think. I'm trying to do the right thing. I'm tired of Republican-Democrat politics. They can take the job and shove it. I come from a blue-collar background. I'm trying to do the right thing, and that's where I'm going with this." New York's move means that the focus of the gay marriage movement will return to California, after it failed last year to pass legislation legalising gay marriage.

5. Where's Sarah Palin? The one-woman publicity juggernaut has been awfully quiet in recent days. With Bachmann sucking up plaudits, Palin is at risk of falling behind in the race for the White House. Slacking off at this stage could cause a fatal loss of momentum. Yet from Palin, not a peep. Only a hardened cynic would suggest that she is doing so to let her daughter, Bristol, have a clearer run at publicising her new book, Not Afraid of Life. That would imply that Palin is uninterested in running for president and only hinting at doing so in order to increase her - and her family's - fame. Tut, tut.

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After Article 50 is triggered, what happens next?

Theresa May says Article 50 will be triggered on 29 March. The UK must prepare for years, if not decades, of negotiating. 

Back in June, when Europe woke to the news of Brexit, the response was muted. “When I first emerged from my haze to go to the European Parliament there was a big sign saying ‘We will miss you’, which was sweet,” Labour MEP Seb Dance remembered at a European Parliament event in London. “The German car industry said we don’t want any disruption of trade.”

But according to Dance – best known for holding up a “He’s Lying” sign behind Nigel Farage’s head – the mood has hardened with the passing months.

The UK is seen as demanding. The Prime Minister’s repeated refusal to guarantee EU citizens’ rights is viewed as toxic. The German car manufacturers now say the EU is more important than British trade. “I am afraid that bonhomie has evaporated,” Dance said. 

On Wednesday 29 March the UK will trigger Article 50. Doing so will end our period of national soul-searching and begin the formal process of divorce. So what next?

The European Parliament will have its say

In the EU, just as in the UK, the European Parliament will not be the lead negotiator. But it is nevertheless very powerful, because MEPs can vote on the final Brexit deal, and wield, in effect, a veto.

The Parliament’s chief negotiator is Guy Verhofstadt, a committed European who has previously given Remoaners hope with a plan to offer them EU passports. Expect them to tune in en masse to watch when this idea is revived in April (it’s unlikely to succeed, but MEPs want to discuss the principle). 

After Article 50 is triggered, Dance expects MEPs to draw up a resolution setting out its red lines in the Brexit negotiations, and present this to the European Commission.

The European Commission will spearhead negotiations

Although the Parliament may provide the most drama, it is the European Commission, which manages the day-to-day business of the EU, which will lead negotiations. The EU’s chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. 

Barnier is a member of the pan-EU European People’s Party, like Jean-Claude Juncker and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He has said of the negotiations: “We are ready. Keep calm and negotiate.”

This will be a “deal” of two halves

The Brexit divorce is expected to take 16 to 18 months from March (although this is simply guesswork), which could mean Britain officially Brexits at the start of 2019.

But here’s the thing. The divorce is likely to focus on settling up bills and – hopefully – agreeing a transitional arrangement. This is because the real deal that will shape Britain’s future outside the EU is the trade deal. And there’s no deadline on that. 

As Dance put it: “The duration of that trade agreement will exceed the life of the current Parliament, and might exceed the life of the next as well.”

The trade agreement may look a bit like Ceta

The European Parliament has just approved the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta) with Canada, a mammoth trade deal which has taken eight years to negotiate. 

One of the main stumbling points in trade deals is agreeing on similar regulatory standards. The UK currently shares regulations with the rest of the UK, so this should speed up the process.

But another obstacle is that national or regional parliaments can vote against a trade deal. In October, the rebellious Belgian region of Wallonia nearly destroyed Ceta. An EU-UK deal would be far more politically sensitive. 

The only way is forward

Lawyers working for the campaign group The People’s Challenge have argued that it will legally be possible for the UK Parliament to revoke Article 50 if the choice is between a terrible deal and no deal at all. 

But other constitutional experts think this is highly unlikely to work – unless a penitent Britain can persuade the rest of the EU to agree to turn back the clock. 

Davor Jancic, who lectures on EU law at Queen Mary University of London, believes Article 50 is irrevocable. 

Jeff King, a professor of law at University College London, is also doubtful, but has this kernel of hope for all the Remainers out there:

“No EU law scholar has suggested that with the agreement of the other 27 member states you cannot allow a member state to withdraw its notice.”

Good luck chanting that at a march. 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.