Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. George Osborne's strivers have a shock in store (Guardian)

The £10bn of extra welfare cuts will hit the strivers the Tories are courting as much as the targeted 'shirkers', says Gavin Kelly.

2. Andrew Mitchell must step down (Daily Telegraph)

The Chief Whip is a walking, talking embodiment of everything with which David Cameron would least like his party to be associated, says a Telegraph leader.

3. The harmful myth of the balanced budget (Financial Times)

Critics of austerity sell themselves short by merely calling for a deceleration in deficit reduction, says Samuel Brittan.

4. The US is buzzing, but it’s a Wasp-free zone (Times) (£)

In 1992 all four presidential candidates were White Anglo-Saxon Protestants, notes Ben Macintyre. That’s four more than this year.

5. Integration? The opposite is true in Jeremy Hunt's NHS (Guardian)

The latest healthcare buzzword means nothing, but growing privatisation is reported to be fragmenting services, writes Polly Toynbee.

6. What Doctors Don’t Tell You: There is something very wrong with our libel laws (Independent)

Our libel law protects the rich and the powerful, writes Simon Singh. It's time for a 21st century re-think.

7. Cameron’s toffs must convince the plebs they’re on their side (Daily Telegraph)

The Andrew Mitchell affair hides the fact that it is the Conservatives who are fighting class inequality, argues Fraser Nelson.

8. High-stakes choices for China’s leaders (Financial Times)

Changes at the top will shape the international order for decades, writes Philip Stephens.

9. Grubby deal that will harm British politics (Daily Mail)

The Prime Minister should think long and hard before allowing 16 and 17-year-olds to vote on Scottish independence, argues a Daily Mail editorial.

10. Gove's centralism is not so much socialist as Soviet (Guardian)

Instead of modernising, British schools stick with the same culture that saw a Nobel winner humiliated in class, writes Simon Jenkins.

 

Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader. Getty
Show Hide image

Will Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister after the 2017 general election?

Can Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn win the 2017 general election? 

Jeremy Corbyn could be the next prime minister. Admittedly, it’s highly unlikely. After less than two years as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn is leading the party into a snap general election. Labour behind in the latest general election polls and underperformed badly in the recent local elections. But since the election was called, Labour’s position in the polls has been improving. Can we trust the general election polls?

This isn’t the first vote of national significance since his election, however, since he was in office during the 2016 EU referendum. It’s also not Corbyn’s first serious challenge: after the Brexit vote, his MPs voted “no confidence” in him and Owen Smith challenged him for the leadership. Corbyn saw off that threat to his position convincingly, so can he pull out another electoral triumph and become prime minister? 

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister after the general election 2017?

Do the polls predict a Labour victory?

Since May 2015, the Conservative Party has consistently led in the polls. The latest polls give Labour ratings in the mid 30s, while the Conservatives are on the mid-40s. Recent improvements in Labour’s standing still leave Jeremy Corbyn a long way from becoming prime minister.

But should we believe the general election polls? Glen O’Hara, professor of modern and contemporary history at Oxford Brookes University, points out that the polls have been wrong before, and could be overstating Labour’s collapse. However, a 20-point gap is far outside the margin of error. A Corbyn win would be an unprecedented upset.

What is Labour's record on elections?

At the 2016 local elections, Labour did not gain any councils and lost 18 seats and 4 per cent of the vote. James Schneider, the co-founder of Momentum who is now Corbyn’s head of strategic communications, said this showed Labour was on the right trajectory, but it’s a disappointment for an opposition to make no gains. And at the Copeland by-election this February, Labour lost the seat to the Tories – the first government gain in a by-election since 1982.

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister? The verdict

Jeremy Corbyn’s path to power would be one of the greatest surprises in British politics. But unlikely doesn’t mean impossible. It would take some extraordinary events, but it could happen. Check out the latest odds to see how the markets rate his chances.

0800 7318496