Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from the Sunday papers.

1. This railway fiasco reveals all that's wrong with the Tories (Observer)

If you hollow out the state, expensive disasters like the West Coast franchise will become routine, says Will Hutton.

2. Those awesome Tory tough guys are itching to take on anybody (...so long as it's not a fair fight) (Mail on Sunday)

Instead of introducing welfare reform carefully and slowly, the Tories seem hellbent on using brute force, writes Viv Groskop.

3. The Man with the Plan can’t keep avoiding the Blond One (Sunday Telegraph)

There is a clear and present danger that Boris Johnson will steal the show in Birmingham, writes Matthew d'Ancona. The Cameroons must act.

4. Now, Dave, will you take Ed seriously? (Sunday Times) (£)

The prime minister needs to convince us there is more to his own plan for one nation than austerity, says Martin Ivens.

5. Boris Johnson reminds Tories of what David Cameron has lost (Observer)

Number 10 says it is relaxed about the mayor's speech at conference, writes Andrew Rawnsley. It is as relaxed as a cat on a hot tin roof.

6. Spot the clues in the battle of the veeps (Independent on Sunday)

Vice-presidential debates have a chequered history, but sometimes they can be a springboard to the top job, writes Rupert Cornwell.

7. The sheep have stampeded - and they'll sweep Ed straight into No10 (Mail on Sunday)

Miliband will be the next Prime Minister, and, in the end, our political media are power-worshippers, says Peter Hitchens.

8. Why does Jeremy Hunt want to turn the clock back on the abortion debate? (Observer)

The health secretary's intervention on abortion time limits is part of a concerted attack on women's rights, says Catherine Bennett.

9. Dave's best bet is a repeat of the 1983 show (Independent on Sunday)

It may seem harsh, but elections can be won even if a minority is suffering, writes John Rentoul.

10. Mitt Romney teaches the Tories a lesson in conviction (Sunday Telegraph)

Osborne needs some good headlines this week – and that means tax cuts, says Janet Daley.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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