Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from the Sunday papers.

1. This railway fiasco reveals all that's wrong with the Tories (Observer)

If you hollow out the state, expensive disasters like the West Coast franchise will become routine, says Will Hutton.

2. Those awesome Tory tough guys are itching to take on anybody (...so long as it's not a fair fight) (Mail on Sunday)

Instead of introducing welfare reform carefully and slowly, the Tories seem hellbent on using brute force, writes Viv Groskop.

3. The Man with the Plan can’t keep avoiding the Blond One (Sunday Telegraph)

There is a clear and present danger that Boris Johnson will steal the show in Birmingham, writes Matthew d'Ancona. The Cameroons must act.

4. Now, Dave, will you take Ed seriously? (Sunday Times) (£)

The prime minister needs to convince us there is more to his own plan for one nation than austerity, says Martin Ivens.

5. Boris Johnson reminds Tories of what David Cameron has lost (Observer)

Number 10 says it is relaxed about the mayor's speech at conference, writes Andrew Rawnsley. It is as relaxed as a cat on a hot tin roof.

6. Spot the clues in the battle of the veeps (Independent on Sunday)

Vice-presidential debates have a chequered history, but sometimes they can be a springboard to the top job, writes Rupert Cornwell.

7. The sheep have stampeded - and they'll sweep Ed straight into No10 (Mail on Sunday)

Miliband will be the next Prime Minister, and, in the end, our political media are power-worshippers, says Peter Hitchens.

8. Why does Jeremy Hunt want to turn the clock back on the abortion debate? (Observer)

The health secretary's intervention on abortion time limits is part of a concerted attack on women's rights, says Catherine Bennett.

9. Dave's best bet is a repeat of the 1983 show (Independent on Sunday)

It may seem harsh, but elections can be won even if a minority is suffering, writes John Rentoul.

10. Mitt Romney teaches the Tories a lesson in conviction (Sunday Telegraph)

Osborne needs some good headlines this week – and that means tax cuts, says Janet Daley.

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How English identity politics will shape the 2017 general election

"English" voters are more likely to vote Conservative and Ukip. But the Tories are playing identity politics in Scotland and Wales too. 

Recent polls have challenged some widely shared assumptions about the direction of UK elections. For some time each part of the UK has seemed to be evolving quite distinctly. Different political cultures in each nation were contested by different political parties and with different parties emerging victorious in each.

This view is now being challenged. Early general election surveys that show the Tories leading in Wales and taking up to a third of the vote in Scotland. At first sight, this looks a lot more like 1997 (though less enjoyable for Labour): an increasingly hegemonic mainland party only challenged sporadically and in certain places.

Is this, then, a return to "politics as normal"? Perhaps the Tories are becoming, once again, the Conservative and Unionist Party. Maybe identity politics is getting back into its box post Brexit, the decline of Ukip, and weak support for a second independence referendum. We won’t really know until the election is over. However, I doubt that we’ve seen the back of identity politics. It may actually bite more sharply than ever before.

Although there’s talk about "identity politics" as a new phenomenon, most votes have always been cast on a sense of "who do I identify with?" or "who will stand up for someone like us?" Many voters take little notice of the ideology and policy beloved of activists, often voting against their "objective interests" to support a party they trust. The new "identity politics" simply reflects the breakdown of long-established political identities, which were in turn based on social class and collective experiences. In their place, come new identities based around people, nations and place. Brexit was never really about the technocratic calculation of profit and loss, but about what sort of country we are becoming, and what we want to be. 

Most social democratic parties in Europe are struggling with this change. Labour is no different. At the start of the general election, it faces a perfect storm of changing identities. Its relationship with working-class voters continues to decline. This is not because the working class has disappeared, but because old industries, with their large workplaces, shared communities and strong unions are no longer there to generate a labour identity. 

Labour is badly adrift in England. The English electorate has become increasingly assertive (and increasingly English). The Brexit vote was most strongly endorsed by the voters who felt most intensely English. In the previous year’s general election, it was fear of Scottish National Party influence on a Labour minority government that almost certainly gave the Tories the English seats needed for an overall majority. In that same election, Labour’s support amongst "English only" voters was half its support amongst "British only" voters. The more "English" the voters, the more likely they were to vote Ukip or Conservative. It shouldn’t be a surprise if Ukip voters now go Tory. Those who think that Ukip somehow groomed Labour voters to become Tories are missing the crucial role that identity may be playing.

So strong are these issues that, until recently, it looked as though the next election - whenever it was called - would be an English election - fought almost entirely in English battlegrounds, on English issues, and by a Tory party that was, increasingly, an English National Conservative Party in all but name. Two powerful identity issues are confounding that assumption.

Brexit has brought a distinctly British issue into play. It is enabling the Tories to consolidate support as the Brexit party in England, and at the same time reach many Leave voters in Wales, and maybe Scotland too. This serendipitous consequence of David Cameron’s referendum doesn’t mean the Tories are yet fully transformed. The Conservative Party in England is indeed increasingly focused on England. Its members believe devolution has harmed England and are remarkably sanguine about a break up of the union. But the new ability to appeal to Leave voters outside England is a further problem for Labour. The Brexit issue also cuts both ways. Without a clear appeal cutting through to Leave and Remain voters, Labour will be under pressure from both sides.

North of the border, the Tories seemed to have found - by accident or design - the way to articulate a familial relationship between the party in Scotland and the party in England. Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson appears to combine conservatism, unionism and distance from English politics more successfully than Scottish Labour, which must ride the two horses of "near home rule" and committed unionism. Scottish Labour has a perfectly good call for a reformed union, but it is undermined by the failure of Labour in England to mobilise enough popular support to make the prospect credible.

Identity politics is not, of course, the be all and end all of politics. Plenty of voters do cast their ballots on the traditional tests of leadership, economic competence, and policy. Labour’s campaign will have to make big inroads here too. But, paradoxically, Labour’s best chance of a strong result lies in taking identity politics head on, and not trying to shift the conversation onto bread and butter policy, as the leaked "talking points" seem to suggest. Plenty of voters will worry what Theresa May would do with the untrammelled power she seeks. Challenging her right or ability to speak for the nation, as Keir Starmer has done, is Labour’s best bet.

 

John Denham was a Labour MP from 1992 to 2015, and a Secretary of State 2007 to 2010. He is Director of the Centre for English Identity and Politics at Winchester University

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