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Support for Labour surges after Miliband's speech

The party's lead over the Tories rises from nine points to 14 in the first poll since the Labour leader's speech.

By George Eaton Published 04 October 2012 8:09
Ed Miliband delivers his speech to the Labour conference in Manchester.
Thirty per cent of people said they were more likely to vote Labour following Ed Miliband's speech. Photograph: Getty Images.

The party conferences are among the few political events that can have a visible effect on the polls (the Budget, which led to a sustained fall in support for the Tories, is another) and Labour has duly won a bounce from Ed Miliband's well-received speech. The latest YouGov poll gives the party a 14-point lead over the Conservatives, up from nine points before the speech and the joint-largest lead it has enjoyed since the general election. Labour's share of the vote has increased by three points to 45%, while the Tories' has fallen by three to 31%. If repeated at an election on a uniform swing, these figures would see Miliband enter Downing Street with a majority of 130 seats.

The Tories will derive some consolation from the fact that Cameron continues to lead Miliband as the "best Prime Minister", but his advantage has shrunk to four points (31-27), the lowest since Miliband became leader.

Further evidence that Miliband's speech has improved his standing is supplied by a Survation poll for the Daily Mirror. The number of people who view him as "statesmanlike" has risen from 18% to 34%, whilst his net approval rating has improved from -46 to -15. In addition, 30% said they were more likely to vote for Labour following his speech (a figure that is more impressive than it appears. Some Labour voters will have needed no further persuasion.)

It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary or a permanent shift, but the Tories can no longer dismiss Miliband as unelectable (if they ever could). Nick Clegg's veto of the boundary changes means that Labour needs a lead of just one point on a uniform swing to win a majority. Based on the Tories' current performance, it's increasingly hard to see how they could prevent such a result.

Tags: Labour  Ed Miliband    

 
 

8 comments

elrob's picture

Thu, 2012-10-04 22:26 — elrob

As a PS, has anyone checked out voting intentions by age group? Amazing!
Labour are about 20 points up in the middling age groups; for 25-40, and for 40-60; some 10 ahead for over-60s, but just 5 ahead among 18-24s.

That's 18-24s as the most conservative demographic i9n the UK. What the Hell has happened to youth????

Random Lurking Scotsman's picture

Thu, 2012-10-04 18:17 — Random Lurking Scotsman (not verified)

Going into the 1979 election, many opinion polls said that they regarded Callaghan as the far more "Prime Ministerial" figure and many couldn't see Thatcher making it into 10 Downing Street. And look what happened there... or the 2010 polls which said that Cleggmania would get the Lib Dems a hundred seats and allow them to pick and choose a partner of their own volition, rather than having to choose to submit to the Tories to get into government.

Polls, schmoles.

Jim Reid's picture

Thu, 2012-10-04 15:44 — Jim Reid (not verified)

But hang on a second, the BBC and nearly all other media outlets keep insisting that "most people don't see Miliband as the next Prime Minister". Even though all the recent opinion polls show that if there was an election tomorrow he WOULD be Prime Minister. Lol

Vodnik's picture

Thu, 2012-10-04 11:41 — Vodnik (not verified)

Excellent post.

George Hallam's picture

Thu, 2012-10-04 09:35 — George Hallam (not verified)

Support for Labour surges after Miliband's speech?

Perhaps it has. However, the YouGov poll does not show that.

Over the first three weeks of September YouGov conducted 15 polls. The average support for the Conservatives was 33.2 while the average support for Labour was 43,3.

The standard deviation of the Conservatives was 1.08 percentage points.
The standard deviation of Labour was slightly higher, 1.53 percentage points.

From a statistical point of view there is nothing remarkable about a poll that gives Labour 45 per cent (i.e somewhere between 44.5 and 45.5).

Similarly, there is nothing remarkable about a poll that gives the Conservatives 32 per cent (i.e somewhere between 31.5 and 32.5).

At 31 per cent, the result of this poll for the Conservatives is slightly lower. However, it nothing to get excited about.

SammyW's picture

Thu, 2012-10-04 09:22 — SammyW (not verified)

The fact that Ed Miliband is constantly bashed from pillar to post, attacked for the way he looks, the way he sounds and attacked for not being his brother and for having the sheer "audacity" to enter a leadership *contest* and win. He is constantly attacked in the right wing press, the TBC (Tory Broadcasting Service) and SkyNews, he is even under constant attack from New Statesman publication from smarmy gits who are trying to make money and fame out of him with failed books. .........What can we expect from Mehdi Hasan and Macintyre at next year's Labour party conference? An update, of the failed update, of the failed book? I see several columnists here attacking Ed too, like the proverbial school bullies you have all been piling into him and for what exactly?

What really rankles his detractors is that Ed Miliband is far from the weak timid figure you and others have persistently tried to paint him as, in actual fact, he is one of the strongest political leaders for a great many years. Something else unique to Ed Miliband is his honesty, his inherent decency, and his integrity. He is also highly knowledgeable and highly capable, he is strong and he is his own man. I am only surprised that his ratings have not been lower with the constant heckling, berating and bullying he has had to withstand since he became Labour leader and if he had listened to any of you lot with your substandard hypothesis he would have been sunk long ago, fact is that he didn't, and the fact is that we are now beginning to get a sight of the real Ed Miliband and guess what? The voters like it. I look forward to see more positive reports of Ed Miliband in this publication and a little humility in admitting you misjudged him would not go amiss, especially from the likes of Hasan , Macintyre and Rafael.

squack's picture

Thu, 2012-10-04 12:38 — squack (not verified)

I'd agree with the above but you have to admit it took him a while to get into his stride as a leader - i think he would have courted more suspicion as just another typical politician if he'd smarmed as hard as scameron from the get-go.

Well done Ed!

elrob's picture

Thu, 2012-10-04 22:22 — elrob

From the beginning, he said: "I don't do huskies." He was playing a long game, and focusing on an agenda: to fundamentally change our economy, not "just" be the next PM.

What Labour comes up with under him will be significant, although some early indicators are refrwshing, legislating to control banki9ng; others are a bit dull. Balls call for a stamp duty holiday is woefully inadequate.

As a so-called FTB - of nearly 40 , thank you for nowt New Labour - I tell you that few semi-intelligent FTBs buy this sort of fiddling around the edges as anything at all. Cut stamp duty by £2k, and the seller will say, you can afford another £2k on the price then. No help whatsoever!!! What we need you schmuck is lower priced housing; and it is only so high because of your useless time at the Treasury allowing banks to dole out £300k loans to anyone who could lie on a self-cert l0an app. Balls has learnt nothing.

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