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Time to talk human, Ed

Abstraction hides Labour leader’s message

Labour leader Ed Miliband. Photograph: Getty Images.
Ed Miliband - "immensely comfortable with the language of ideas and theory." Photograph: Getty Images.

What is the “squeezed middle”? Is it:

(a) a socio-economic phenomenon characterised by median wage stagnation combined with real terms rises in the cost of living affecting middle and lower income deciles.

Or is it:

(b) Getting to the supermarket checkout and having to take items out of the basket; paying for school meals a week at a time when you used to pay up front for the whole term; dreading the arrival of the postman each day because you know he’s bringing more bills?

What is “responsible capitalism”? Is it:

(a) A paradigm shift in the balance of economic power recognising the dysfunctionality of an obsolescent neo-liberal model that has embedded structural inequalities.

Or

(b) Having someone in the bank who actually listens to you and wants to help you develop your idea for a new business; a gas company that is as quick to cut bills when the oil price falls as it is to hike them when the price rises; a rail company that doesn’t make you sit on hold on a premium rate number to book a ticket.

What is “predistribution”?

(a) A conceptual framework for the pursuit of social democratic ambitions for social change at a time when conventional models of tax-ands-spend redistribution are rendered inaccessible by enduring fiscal constraints.

(b) A decent wage for a decent day’s work; a place in a brilliant nursery that doesn’t cost the earth so you can go to work, knowing that your kids are getting the best possible start in life.

Trick questions, obviously. In each case, it is both. They are all Ed Miliband buzz phrases – although it would be a grotesque misreading of national preoccupations to say any of them has generated a buzz outside the Labour party. The reason for playing that little linguistic game of parallel definitions is to illustrate a problem that Miliband badly needs to overcome if he is to advance his ambitions to run the country. There is the abstract, wonkish, analytical idiom – answer (a) – and then there are real people who cast real votes – answer (b). Until Miliband finds a way to transfer his ideas from one to the other, he will not persuade people that the Labour party is ready for government. It is hard to win a campaign when no-one has the faintest idea what you are on about.

Miliband’s allies and the people who help draft his speeches will respond that he does, in fact, anchor his ideas in the real world. This is just about true at a rhetorical level. The speech he gave on 6 September on the subject of “predistribution” contained studious references to ordinary human experience: there were “struggling small businesses [that] they have fewer people coming through the door” and “young people scouring the Jobcentre for work [who] know that there aren’t enough vacancies.”

That is an advance on his now famous (in rarefied political circles) party conference speech last year, when he introduced the idea of “predatory” and “productive” businesses without apparently having prepared for the inevitable subsequent demand that he identify concrete examples of each.

To be fair, the most recent speech was delivered at an economic conference hosted by a think tank. It wasn’t an election rally or a rehearsal for this year’s annual conference. But it was part of a concerted campaign of autumn re-entry into the political game; a setting out of the stall and a bid to demonstrate that there is more to Labour’s offer than simply waiting for the coalition to fall apart. Part of that campaign included an interview with the New Statesman in which Miliband explicitly and vigorously rejected the charge that he was quietly hoping to resume where Labour left off in 2010.

That much should be obvious. The budget situation that a Labour government would inherit – brutal spending constraints lasting for a decade or longer – mean the old model of ever-expanding social intervention, mediated by the Treasury and bankrolled out of general taxation, is not an option. That may be substantially George Osborne’s fault if, as Labour alleges, it  is his policies that have suffocated growth. But it is still Ed Miliband’s problem. It is good that he says as much.

The charge that the Tories hope to bring at the next election is that the country cannot afford another Labour government and that Miliband doesn’t know how to deliver any of the social benefits he promises without confiscating money from you and me or borrowing it. Debt aversion is a powerful driver of conservative impulses. (Yes, I know the macroeconomic arguments that distinguish the national finances sheet from a household budget, but until someone finds a way to express Keynes’s paradox of thrift in a pithy soundbite, Labour look like the party of wild national sprees on the never-never.)

Miliband recognises that he needs a convincing account of how Labour can realise its traditional aims of social regeneration in recognition of limited government means. Inevitably that will require some account of budget priorities, which in turn will demand some reconciliation with harsh decisions made by the coalition. The Labour leader and the shadow chancellor have so far tiptoed up to that conversation but not, in any meaningful sense, joined it. One justification for that caution – as I have written before – is that premature professions of fiscal rigour could easily be twisted by the Conservatives to look like confessions of responsibility for the deficit. Explicitly promising to spend less in the future risks polluting Ed Balls’s argument (supported by a regiment of non-partisan economists) that cutting “too far, too fast” is the very reason we are in a double dip recession. The question that many in the shadow cabinet ask with increasing urgency is when, exactly, the Labour leadership  intends to make the transition from short-term macroeconomic prescription (the Five-Point Plan) and abstract ambitions for socio-economic revolution (Responsible Capitalism) to actual policies that campaigners can deploy on the doorstep. The answer I get when I pose this question to people at the top of the Labour high command is “not yet.”

This is a straightforward gamble. It assumes that the coalition has more unravelling to do and the Tory party has some way further to go in its perverse journey of brand recontamination, obviating the need for Labour to surrender detailed policy hostages to fortune. Jon Cruddas’s policy review is meant to be looking at ways to translate the Miliband agenda into real world messages that resonate around kitchen tables and its work has only just begun. The next election is, in all probability, still more than two years away. There is time.

The risk is that the pace of coalition meltdown brings Miliband’s offer under sustained interrogation long before he is ready to answer difficult questions about his intended stewardship of the nation’s finances. At the moment the appetite for rigorous thinking and the exercise of tough choices is strongest among people broadly sympathetic to Miliband’s programme. Policy minds of the left and centre left are engaging constructively with the challenge that they see stretching out before the Labour party.

There is, for example, an important essay coming up in the forthcoming edition of Juncture, a journal produced by the Institute for Public Policy Research, co-authored by Nick Pearce, IPPR director, and Gavin Kelly of the Resolution Foundation (writing in a personal capacity). They were two of the most senior figures in the Downing Street policy unit under Labour and are highly respected in Whitehall and across party lines in Westminster. The article explores in new detail the options available to a government of the centre-left that is both realistic about the fiscal situation and ambitious in effecting radical structural reforms to the economy. It deserves and will no doubt get close attention from the Labour leadership.

Unless embraced and acted upon, that spirit of helpful engagement could quickly be overshadowed by more hostile interventions. The derision initially heaped on Miliband’s conference speech last year was checked by a dawning recognition among critics that the Labour leader, for all the flaws of his presentation, might actually have been on to something. There was even a moment earlier this year when it looked as if Miliband had started something of an intellectual arms race for ownership of the “moral/responsible capitalism” agenda. Conservative engagement on that front withered in the radioactive fall out from George Osborne’s disastrous budget.

Yet the reprieve for Miliband is temporary. He might have persuaded a few people that he has an interesting analysis of what is wrong with the British economy, but if he can’t then turn that into a credible prescription for fixing it, the scorn will return with renewed force. Instead of attacking him for having no ideas, the Tories can attack him for having unworkable ideas, at best, or – more likely – just talking high fallutin’ gibberish that doesn’t contain a credible promise to bring home the national bacon. It is a law of politics that when a candidate fails to give his agenda definition, his enemies will gladly define it for him in the worst possible terms. That, broadly speaking, is what happened to Cameron’s Big Society. (I wrote more about the lessons for Miliband from that project here.)

Which brings us back to Answers (a) and (b) to those questions at the start. Miliband is immensely comfortable with the language of ideas and theory. He knows he has to express himself also through experience of the real world, which is where politics has to operate to be in any way effective. But it is hard to escape the impression from his speeches and media performances that he finds the gear change awkward. It is as if he is running a constant process of simultaneous translation in his head from the (a) answer to the (b) one … or relying on aides to do the translation for him.

The problem is not insurmountable. It helps that Cameron has his own very different problems indicating that he understands the pain and insecurity that a stagnant economy inflicts on people who have not benefited from a charmed cruise up to the highest office in the land. But when he performs at his best, Cameron is fluent in answers (b). His difficulty, as some more thoughtful Tories recognise, is that he didn’t bother even thinking through answers (a) in opposition.

And yes, I recognise that this long, rambling blog post has hardly been a lesson in accessible prose, for which apologies to anyone who has read this far. The point is that Miliband has launched himself into the new political season invigorated and confident with what he sees as a bold new message. He believes it is exciting, challenging and disruptive to conventional thinking and stale orthodoxy. All of which might be true. But there is a kind of radicalism, especially on the left, that, when neatly encapsulated in abstract theories, is also a place of retreat, a kind of shying away from the grim, hand-dirtying business of making political choices and rough compromises that affect people’s lives. So, a question for the Labour party conference this year - is Ed Miliband:

(a) The leader who took the first steps to set Labour on a course of recovery from the divisions of the Blair/Brown era and established an interesting intellectual framework for his successors to build a credible platform for 21st Century social democracy in an age of austerity?

Or can he be:

(b) Britain’s next Prime Minister?

19 comments

Michael Dixon's picture

So long as Labour retains denial for its contribution to the mess the country found itself in 2010, it will continue to have insufficient credibilty in the eyes of the electorate to win the next general election.

This long article does not address this and neither do the comments. It is all the Tories fault in 28 months after 13 years of Blair, Brown, Balls, Milband, knighted bankers, that included criminal overspending and waste.

People are not stupid and seeing Blair raking it in, is a reminder of New Labour of the Party that most people who follow this excellent website supported. So Mandelson could get people "filthy rich."

Osborne, public schools, bullingdon boys etc etc. is a mere sideshow. Admission of some horrendous economic mistakes would be a much more constructive action for Labour.

I doubt it will happen..

left turn's picture

Whether we like it or not, the economy is going to become less dependent on the public sector. The big challenge for any government is to stimulate private sector employment. Labour’s complete inability to articulate a credible alternative economic strategy to austerity is the reason few have little confidence in Labour’s ability to manage the British economy. It appears now Labour’s only strategy is to do nothing, commit nothing, say nothing but promise everything and hopefully the keys too member 10 will fall into our undeserving hands the problem with this strategy is once the euphoria subsides reality will come quickly knocking on the door of number 10.

Kevin Irving's picture

Ed M will lead Labour into the next election. He passed the point of being compared to IDS about a year ago and the tories have been shooting themselves in the foot ever since the budget. This has allowed him breathing space and the chance to re-define what he stands for. Let's hope he takes it. I dread to think what another 18 years of tory government will do to this country.

Posh Tosh's picture

Mr Ed was holding an house party, he said "I will order the boiled eggs, but make sure you have them ready shelled, as we do not have the human resources to boil and shell eggs". "All my kitchen staff work for Labour"

Herbert's picture

I don't know about you, but I like my jokes to be something like funny rather than pathetically laboured.

Eddy S's picture

Predistribution is a more effective tool for long term outcome changes much better than tax credits. I think also thing the govt work programme i.e. working for benefits should not be blindly opposed. There are circumstances when this can work for the benefit of society for example long term unemployed. I'm not saying people should be made to polish shoes but opposing good corporate companies that employ people and provide valuable experience can benefit that individual and the value of that should not be under-estimated. There are some on the left whose views are extreme in opposing something that can constructively provide better experience as a matter of principle i.e. reverse snobishness.

Herbert's picture

'I think also thing the govt work programme i.e. working for benefits should not be blindly opposed.'

I've got a great idea - let's call it 'a job' and pay 'a wage'. If there's work to be done, don't let's pretend there isn't just so wages can be kept down and profits up.

Hikaru22's picture

Iain Hill:

'We will remain friends with the US, but critical friends, and no longer meekly do its bidding .'

Unfortunately, the government is currently meekly doing its bidding to the extent of betraying our fellow citizens into the hands - or rather, into the orange boiler suits and chains - of the Americans, on the very flimsiest of pretexts. Think Gary McKinnon, Richard O'Dwyer and, indeed, others. This has got to change. And the first step towards making that change would be for Parliament to rescind the US/UK Extradition Treaty in its entirety.

Hu Ru's picture

The piece above reflects the questions I hear myself asking when such instances of 'doublespeak' are spouted by any of the liblabconferderation suits . May bete noir is the word 'affordable', for instance. The 'centre' is a big lie that covers the bare arse of the 'economic system' King, as he swans about demanding taxes from my as yet unborn grandchildren to pay for the BTL empires of the idle bourgeois.
The 'system' is rattling a death throw , and the sooner it dies, the sooner we can construct a new way of living together. I have two decent friends (extended circle, 30 miles apart) who confessed to voting BNP, and knowing these men I was stunned.......but until we face up to the lies that are condemning young to feudalism , and importing 'competition' from any which place to drive down their wages, I'm thinking of joining them just for effect.
Ed is getting as fearful and reactionary as his Tory brother......ffs.

Iain hill's picture

Abstraction by politicians is the bane of our lives. Statements and phrases carefully calibrated to woo us, but in the end guaranteeing zilch.

I want the next Labour manifesto to say the following in words of utter clarity:

We will govern in a manner which promotes peace and shuns all military intervention.

We wil achieve substantial redistribution in favour of the ordinary and poor people of our country, and ensure that the rich pay for it.

We will abandon totally the fear-driven authoritarian agenda of Reid and Blunkett.

We wil remain friends with the US, but critical friends, and no longer meekly do its bidding .

We will devise comprehensive policies to rescue the old, the sick, the poor and children, and impose whatever taxes are required to implement these.

Without such binding promises, I'm with the Greens.

Benjamin Rae's picture

Lile it.

Herbert's picture

If I could read something like that I'd vote Labour. But it is the certainty of knowing that I never will that always prevented me.

Benjamin Rae's picture

I don't think it's just a issue around language and accessability. Chatting about predatory capitalism is one thing. Saying exactly what your going to do about it is quite another.
Nick Clegg made nice speeches about making a better country before the election. He was rather light on substance though.
Not say ing Milliband is as bad as Clegg (very few people are) but the point still stands.Until Milliband can articulate some concrete actions he would take to tackle poverty , unemployment etc then he can't trusted. No politician can.

Fat Bloke on Tour's picture

RB

At times I do have to wonder why you bother, tome after tome criticising Milli-E at all levels and nothing about the economic train wreck that the dog boilers of the ConDenNation are inflicting on the country.

If you want to understand what's is happening and Sniffy's part in it watch the film "Ace in the Hole". It may be over 50 years old but it tells you everything you need to know about the way The Tories have destroyed the recovery for political reasons and are now stuck as they realise that there is no way back.

Consequently until your output improves and offers insight instead of political gossip, Tory propaganda / cheap shots plus partial, slanted and forced reporting then I will read it for its comedy value and nothing else.

Feneon's picture

"until someone finds a way to express Keynes’s paradox of thrift in a pithy soundbite, Labour look like the party of wild national sprees on the never-never."

I thought Paul Krugman already had: "Your spending is my income, and my spending is your income."

Gramsci23's picture

A great piece of analysis, I thoroughly enjoyed reading this. Keep it up!

saltyseadog1's picture

The Tory Blair clique or (the enemy within) that holds Labour back and which you appear to be a spokesman for should just go and join the tories and be done with it Rafael . I am an old fashioned lefty type labour supporter and one of the millions who stopped supporting them under that shower and to be honest I was more than a bit apprehensive over Ed Millibands induction as leader but have come to see that the man has grown into the job like all good leaders do. He has consistently shown himself to be on the leading edge of the debate, continually leaves Cameron red faced and blustering at QT and has definitely (to me at least) shown that he is the man for the job. I understand what he is saying/meaning and I am unsure why you seem to want straight up yes/no answers to your posed questions when I have yet to see any politician of any persuasion answer anything in such a way. Why should Ed or indeed any Labour MP give any inkling of what policies they will promote until we are in the build up to an election, which might be sooner than we think the way things are going?. Personally I hope it doesn't come before the full whack of the coalitions cutbacks becomes apparent over the next year or so because then I think that even the tories will have trouble getting support from the general electorate. Just watch, as Ed becomes more and more confident he is becoming a very good leader who will without a doubt lead Labour to victory at the next election.

hugh markey's picture

Sure, Tony is a deal-maker these days. But knowing Tone he would be only too happy to make time to give Ed tuition sessions in the old 'Esturine' lingo.
Worked without fail - even when it was obvious the West were losing in Iraq.

Professor 'Iggins

hugh markey's picture

Sure, Tony is a deal-maker these days. But knowing Tone he would be only too happy to make time to give Ed tuition sessions in the old 'Esturine' lingo.
Worked without fail - even when it was obvious the West were losing in Iraq.

Professor 'Iggins

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