The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Boris on course for victory

Final poll puts Boris six points ahead of Ken but Labour leads by 10 points in the London Assembly.

By George Eaton Published 03 May 2012 10:13

Olympic performance? Boris Johnson stands on the high board with athlete Tom Daly during a visit to the Olympic Aquatic Centre on January 9, 2012 in London Photograph: Getty Images.

Boris Johnson is on course for another four years in City Hall. That's according to the final YouGov poll on the London mayoral election, which gives Boris a six-point lead over Ken Livingstone (53-47 per cent) once second preferences have been allocated. In the 2004 and 2008 mayoral elections, YouGov predicted the result to within one per cent, so it would require a dramatic upset for Ken to win.

Indeed, so inevitable does a Boris victory now seem (Paddy Power has already paid out £20,000 to the punters) that some Conservative strategists fear an adverse effect on Tory turnout, allowing Ken in through the back door. When all responses are taken into account (rather than those of people "certain to vote"), the final round is a dead heat between Boris and Ken with both on 50 per cent.

Yet while Ken is struggling, Labour is thriving. The party enjoys a 13-point lead in London (47-34 per cent) and a 10-point lead over the Tories in the London Assembly election. If Boris wins, it will be in spite of the fact that he is a Tory, rather than because he is. In a country where his party trails Labour by 10 points, he is that increasingly rare thing: a popular Conservative.

Tags: London Mayoral Election Boris Johnson Ken Livingstone

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5 comments

Thu, 2012-05-03 17:38 — hugh markey (not verified)

Talk about political acrobatics. This aerial trapeze artist will probably make the triple-somersault manoeuvre to the mayoralty but if he enacts Tory policies then those swing voters, or those who voted tactically, for the Labour Party and True Blue Boris, will be more than sorry.
Setting up a sideshow patsy helps Labour both locally and nationally. Sorry for Ken, though Especially in the light of the fact that at least 3000 individuals in public employ have been blatantly avoiding tax and keeping the dosh for themselves and not paying the salaries of any workers in their employ.
Still, Ken has made transparency mandatory when it comes to gaining public office.

Urbanites

Thu, 2012-05-03 16:58 — Tony Brooke (not verified)

Poor Londoners: Being offered a stark choice between weevils they are bound to choose the lesser of the two.
But what I'd like to know is how did Boris get as far as the high board with his outside shoes on without getting shouted at by the attendant and where are his Budgie Smugglers.

Thu, 2012-05-03 12:17 — Fergus Pickering (not verified)

Lots of people care who wins. Sounds like sour grapes to me.

Thu, 2012-05-03 11:19 — duck soup

There have been countless articles in the New Statesman in recent weeks about the London Mayoral election.Boris this,Ken that,ad nauseam.Not the the London election isn't important.But you'd hardly guess from the NS web pages that there are elections taking place all over.

Vote SNP 1,2 and 3.