How young people can hurt the coalition
Under 25s are a much greater electoral force than they realise.
By Rowenna Davis Published 29 June 2012 10:23
What has the coalition got against young people? This is the question haunting the blogosphere after David Cameron announced his intention to scrap housing benefit to under-25s. With youth unemployment already over one million, EMA scrapped, tuition fees tripled, Connexions services shut and the Future Jobs Fund closed, this prime minister is starting to develop something of a reputation.
But the next question is this: What damage could young people do back? I've been looking at the data, and three interesting findings emerge from the numbers.
First, since the 1970s, winning parties have always won at least a third of the youth vote in general elections (scroll down to the pink chart here). People might assume that the Conservatives were different, but a difficult fact for lefties is that 42 per cent of young people aged 18-24 supported Margaret Thatcher when she first came to power.
The interesting exception is the present Conservative party. When David Cameron was elected in 2010, he won just 30 per cent of the youth vote. Youth representation in government manifested itself that year through the Liberal Democrats, the party with the lowest average age of supporter.
But now that youth support for the LibDems is hemorrhaging, an opportunity is opening up for Labour. An illuminating ICM poll for the Guardian shows that in the month before the general election, some 44 per cent of young people aged 18-24 planned to vote Lib Dem. A similar poll taken two years on showed that figure had dropped to seven per cent.
Idealistic about change, the Liberal Democrats’ decisions in office will burn deep, like getting dumped by your first love. It remains to be seen whether the party can ever win back that trust. The youth vote at the next election is now open, but it must be earned.
Point two. Young people help steer electoral turning points. A significant chunk of young people might have supported Thatcher in 1979, but when they got sick of austerity, they switched in large numbers. When teens and tweenagers flocked to the polls in 1997, some 49 per cent voted for Tony Blair.
And when Labour lost power in 2010, that figure dropped to 30 per cent.
Because the youth vote is now massively untapped, it has great potential for any party that dares to inspire it.
There’s a tendency to assume young people are naturally more inclined to vote for the left, but that is simply not the case. David Cameron might not have won round the bulk of the youth vote, but they were no more likely to vote for Labour. If Ed Miliband wants to capture the hearts of the next generation, he'll have to work harder.
A key opportunity to do that is the shift to individual voter registration. Research from the Electoral Commission shows that young people and private renters make up the two biggest groups of unregistered voters, and the government’s proposals threaten to lock out even more. If Labour does go ahead with its mooted voter registration drive and includes some targetted work for young people and students, there will be strategic as well as moral benefits. After all, if you feel a party cares about your voice being heard, you're more likely to vote for that party.
There are other ways to capture the youth vote that go deeper than slamming the government. Introducing votes to 16s – with some even discussing the possibly of making electoral participation compulsory for first time voters - alongside the possibility of voting through social media would encourage young people to get involved. Migrant communities continue to vote for Labour because the party gave them the vote; young people could do the same.
It's true that appealing to younger age groups is risky because, at present, they are significantly less likely to vote than older voters. In fact the Guardian ICM poll shows that on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being certain to vote, 18-24s score an average of less than 6, compared to over 65s who score 8.6. But as the huge turnouts at youth elections show, this is unlikely to mean they are uninterested in politics. A more likely explanation is that they're disillusioned with parties and politicians.
Of course whoever wins 2015 will have to form a party that speaks to all ages. But at the moment this coalition is failing to do that. No one likes the idea of young people struggling, no matter what age they are. Grandparents are worried about their families. Pensioners are concerned about schools. By speaking more to young people, politicians would be speaking to the nation.
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31 comments
Cameron / Clegg have UPSET all these millions of people: Motorists, Police, Farmers, The Disabled, The Poor, Youngsters, Welfare, NHS workers, GP's Public Sector Workers, University Students, Teachers and not forgetting the disaster we call EU membership. Roll on the next general election, but will the next bunch actually be a bit more compassionate to people.
Cameron / Clegg have UPSET all these millions of people: Motorists, Police, Farmers, The Disabled, The Poor, Youngsters, Welfare, NHS workers, GP's Public Sector Workers, University Students, Teachers and not forgetting the disaster we call EU membership. Roll on the next general election, but will the next bunch actually be a bit more compassionate to people.
Of course young people should have a chance to voice their opinions but they are worth very little! bajar videos
Yeah, like young people are going to vote the small c-conservative Labour party.
Yeah, like young people are going to vote the small c-conservative Labour party.
"With youth unemployment already over one million, EMA scrapped, tuition fees tripled, Connexions services shut and the Future Jobs Fund closed, this prime minister is starting to develop something of a reputation."
Are you really saying that Labour will repeal all of these?
The tripling of house prices under New Labour didn't exactly do the young folk any favours, I can't think of many things which were more disastrous or divisive. You have to ask what those in power were doing about it when people were warning about debt and house prices in the early 2000's. The population growth we had didn't exactly help the shortage of housing situation either.
Some very interesting & good points, especially extending the voting age people don't know is that young people are voting and looking to change things, young people are the future. development internships
The best chance for the Tories is for Labour to entertain the idea that Blair can make a come-back in any serious role.
If the Coalition really want to engage and listen to young people not only should they drop thier punitive policies such as on EMA and tuition fees but they should stop fooling around with their sideline policies lik House of Lords reform and develop constitutional/electoral reform that matters - 'votes at 16'.
Quote of the Day - Regarding Gareth Williams, “The world was ours for the taking.”. There's a rumour going around that Gareth may of had some sort of a covert mission in relationship to 'Dolly the Sheep', prior to his demise, but it hasn't been fully substantiated! Apparently Alex Chapman didn't know about this covert relationship, but he may have Saw(ers) alot! Ronan Summers definitely didn't have anything to do with it, even though he loves to drink Tenets! We all love Wiltshire (Porton Down) more than Gloucestershire (GCHQ), even more so then Worcestershire (RSRE). Military Radiations Signals Intelligence always use to do his head in, especially when using ELF or VLF frequencies, impacting directly on the 'Neural Oscillations' of the Central Nervous System. Nothing to do with BCI, RNM, Synthetic Telepathy ... that would REALLY BE MAD!!!
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"When David Cameron was elected in 2010,"........
He wasn't. How often do we have to repeat it?
It matters.
Yes he was, I know that lefties don't like to acknowledge reality too often, but Cameron was elected in 2010.
David camerons big society English hyporcroycy victorian values double standards,hatred of poor, old disabled, free from accountabilitiy are metropolitan police, banks, corrupt mps,press.David YOU ARE A NAZI
Here's hoping. But the 'youth' vote has always been woefully fickle. It is only when bitter experience hits home that they turn to Labour as saviour.
When a Labour government is in power these malleable youngsters feel the Labour government is deliberately obstructing their progress towards fame and fortune. Their aspirations to become entrepreneurs, rock gods, and reality celebs only go up in smoke when the Tories bring a bit of reality into their lives.
House owner - forget it. High rents are just too profitable.
Get Real(real politik, baby)
The idea that anyone with half brian cannot see that internationally Governments are using the peoples money to make the Banking system whole.
Money that should be spent to catch up on years of neglect by the Torys back as far as thatcher have removed the ability of youth to learn trades and given skills following slavishly the American model until the youth have no useful skills that are needed in Britain. Britain makes very little and what jobs are available in manufacturing have been exported offshore to be done cheaply.
How comes that so many youth can barely read in todays Britain.
How come that this situation is allowed to continue.
There must be support and enhanced education coupled with investment in creating worthwhile jobs.
Cameron is just following the Tory policies that have hardly changed in the 70 years
We should be able to voice our opinions!
They may not seem to be worth much but if you think about it young people are very significant. If the main political parties find a way to connect with us, surely they'll win the next election. Look at the Lib dems, they won many votes, in the last general election from the younger generation through their tuition fee campaign; we all hate the way in which they 'betrayed' us, but we have to admit, they (in particular Nick Clegg) were smart about it. However rather than pledging empty promises we need a political party that is consistent, we need politicans to be more reliable. I mean we all hate liars!
Row, a well written and highly entertaining piece. Exactly the types of ideas we're thinking about for our blog!
All very well if young people actually go to the polling station- which they do not. I can count on one hand the number of under 25s I have seen at polling stations in all the years I have been able to vote. It is older people and in large measure the elderly who turn out to vote and most of them have no idea about silly Twitter and blogs and other virtual rubbish which Labour party apparatchiks blabber on about.
Most young people do not vote which is why the Labour party obsessing with silly Twitter etc is totally stupid and mind numbing. I have no confidence in the Labour party replacing this awful government whilst it is run the current crowd who have no idea when it comes to what makes most people WHO ACTUALLY VOTE tick.
Why should young individuals not have a chance to voice their opinions? Are we not apart of society? @Thewestisthebest Very good arguement!
Of course young people should have a chance to voice their opinions but they are worth very little!
Why should young individuals not have a chance to voice their opinions? Are we not apart of society? @Thewestisthebest Very good arguement!
Why should young individuals not have a chance to voice their opinions? Are we not apart of society? @Thewestisthebest Very good arguement!
Young people is our future.....
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Let's be thankful most aren't poisoned by left-wing state dependency.
Young people are the last people you ask how to run a society.
'... a difficult fact for lefties is that 42 per cent of young people aged 18-24 supported Margaret Thatcher when she first came to power.'
Why is that a 'difficult fact'? It reminds me of a friend of mine who was surprised to find that a gay person could be right wing. Why make this sweeping assumption that young people are any more intelligent than their elders?
Some very interesting and valid points, especially extending the voting age to 16 as I personally believe the youth of today are much more politically 'clued up' than a few years back
Come off it.
Tweenager - a child of approximately 8 - 14 years of age (Collins online dictionary)
I know lowering voter registration age is up for debate, but unless Justin Bieber is running, I doubt this will have much impact.