The moment we will know who won Labour's leadership contest

The faces of the candidates and their aides may reveal all

We know that the result of the Labour leadership contest will be announced between 4pm and 5pm on Saturday 25 September, at the start of the party's annual conference in Manchester. We do not, however, know much more than that. The Labour party is being understandably vague about the details of who will know what when, and how exactly the announcement will be made. The party's press office indicates it will be putting out a fuller statement in due course. Privately, leadership candidates -- including those most likely to win -- are confused and apparently in the dark about the details. At least they say they are. Most people expect them to be sitting in a row, with other politicians and the media, at Manchester Central, in an Oscars-style ceremony as they announcement is made, probably by the party's General Secretary, Ray Collins.

However, I'm told that around ten minutes before the announcement is made public the contenders will be ushered into a room backstage to be told first. I'm told, too, that they are each allowed a "plus one" to accompany them, quickly to think through the political implications of the result and practice the message each candidate -- including the winner -- will have to deliver to the party and the public (all candidates will have to have prepared a speech). I gather that Ed Miliband has chosen his aide Stuart Wood, the former adviser to Gordon Brown, to be his plus one. David Miliband will be accompanied by his long-standing aide, Madlin Sadler. The other camps are remaining tight-lipped. What is clear however, is that it will be worth looking out for the faces of not just the candidates but their aides.

Meanwhile, a senior Labour source declines to comment on rumours that Gordon Brown wants to be involved in the announcement, passing on the Labour torch as Tony Blair did to him in 2007. But the source does confirm that, "Gordon will be involved in the conference in some way. The party will be given the opportunity to thank him for his years as prime minister and his many years as chancellor."

UPDATE: a Labour source has called back to confirm that the candidates will hear the result before the official announcement, with plus ones.

James Macintyre is political correspondent for the New Statesman.
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How Theresa May laid a trap for herself on the immigration target

When Home Secretary, she insisted on keeping foreign students in the figures – causing a headache for herself today.

When Home Secretary, Theresa May insisted that foreign students should continue to be counted in the overall immigration figures. Some cabinet colleagues, including then Business Secretary Vince Cable and Chancellor George Osborne wanted to reverse this. It was economically illiterate. Current ministers, like the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Chancellor Philip Hammond and Home Secretary Amber Rudd, also want foreign students exempted from the total.

David Cameron’s government aimed to cut immigration figures – including overseas students in that aim meant trying to limit one of the UK’s crucial financial resources. They are worth £25bn to the UK economy, and their fees make up 14 per cent of total university income. And the impact is not just financial – welcoming foreign students is diplomatically and culturally key to Britain’s reputation and its relationship with the rest of the world too. Even more important now Brexit is on its way.

But they stayed in the figures – a situation that, along with counterproductive visa restrictions also introduced by May’s old department, put a lot of foreign students off studying here. For example, there has been a 44 per cent decrease in the number of Indian students coming to Britain to study in the last five years.

Now May’s stubbornness on the migration figures appears to have caught up with her. The Times has revealed that the Prime Minister is ready to “soften her longstanding opposition to taking foreign students out of immigration totals”. It reports that she will offer to change the way the numbers are calculated.

Why the u-turn? No 10 says the concession is to ensure the Higher and Research Bill, key university legislation, can pass due to a Lords amendment urging the government not to count students as “long-term migrants” for “public policy purposes”.

But it will also be a factor in May’s manifesto pledge (and continuation of Cameron’s promise) to cut immigration to the “tens of thousands”. Until today, ministers had been unclear about whether this would be in the manifesto.

Now her u-turn on student figures is being seized upon by opposition parties as “massaging” the migration figures to meet her target. An accusation for which May only has herself, and her steadfast politicising of immigration, to blame.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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