The moment we will know who won Labour's leadership contest

The faces of the candidates and their aides may reveal all

We know that the result of the Labour leadership contest will be announced between 4pm and 5pm on Saturday 25 September, at the start of the party's annual conference in Manchester. We do not, however, know much more than that. The Labour party is being understandably vague about the details of who will know what when, and how exactly the announcement will be made. The party's press office indicates it will be putting out a fuller statement in due course. Privately, leadership candidates -- including those most likely to win -- are confused and apparently in the dark about the details. At least they say they are. Most people expect them to be sitting in a row, with other politicians and the media, at Manchester Central, in an Oscars-style ceremony as they announcement is made, probably by the party's General Secretary, Ray Collins.

However, I'm told that around ten minutes before the announcement is made public the contenders will be ushered into a room backstage to be told first. I'm told, too, that they are each allowed a "plus one" to accompany them, quickly to think through the political implications of the result and practice the message each candidate -- including the winner -- will have to deliver to the party and the public (all candidates will have to have prepared a speech). I gather that Ed Miliband has chosen his aide Stuart Wood, the former adviser to Gordon Brown, to be his plus one. David Miliband will be accompanied by his long-standing aide, Madlin Sadler. The other camps are remaining tight-lipped. What is clear however, is that it will be worth looking out for the faces of not just the candidates but their aides.

Meanwhile, a senior Labour source declines to comment on rumours that Gordon Brown wants to be involved in the announcement, passing on the Labour torch as Tony Blair did to him in 2007. But the source does confirm that, "Gordon will be involved in the conference in some way. The party will be given the opportunity to thank him for his years as prime minister and his many years as chancellor."

UPDATE: a Labour source has called back to confirm that the candidates will hear the result before the official announcement, with plus ones.

James Macintyre is political correspondent for the New Statesman.
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A small dose of facts could transform Britain's immigration debate

While "myth-busting" doesn't always work, there is an appetite for a better informed conversation than the one we're having now. 

For some time opinion polls have shown that the public sees immigration as one of the most important issues facing Britain. At the same time, public understanding of the economic and social impacts of immigration is poor and strongly influenced by the media: people consistently over-estimate the proportion of the population born outside the UK and know little about policy measures such as the cap on skilled non-EU migration. The public gets it wrong on other issues too - on teenage pregnancy, the Muslim population of the UK and benefit fraud to name just three. However, in the case of immigration, the strength of public opinion has led governments and political parties to reformulate policies and rules. Theresa May said she was cracking down on “health tourists” not because of any evidence they exist but because of public “feeling”. Immigration was of course a key factor in David Cameron’s decision to call a referendum on the UK’s membership with the EU and has been central to his current renegotiations.  

Do immigration facts always make us more stubborn and confused?

The question of how to both improve public understanding and raise the low quality of the immigration debate has been exercising the minds of those with a policy and research interest in the issue. Could the use of facts address misconceptions, improve the abysmally low quality of the debate and bring evidence to policy making? The respected think tank British Future rightly warns of the dangers associated with excessive reliance on statistical and economic evidence. Their own research finds that it leaves people hardened and confused. Where does that leave those of us who believe in informed debate and evidence based policy? Can a more limited use of facts help improve understandings and raise the quality of the debate?

My colleagues Jonathan Portes and Nathan Hudson-Sharp and I set out to look at whether attitudes towards immigration can be influenced by evidence, presented in a simple and straightforward way. We scripted a short video animation in a cartoon format conveying some statistics and simple messages taken from research findings on the economic and social impacts of immigration.

Targeted at a wide audience, we framed the video within a ‘cost-benefit’ narrative, showing the economic benefits through migrants’ skills and taxes and the (limited) impact on services. A pilot was shown to focus groups attended separately by the general public, school pupils studying ‘A’ level economics and employers.

Some statistics are useful

To some extent our findings confirm that the public is not very interested in big statistics, such as the number of migrants in the UK. But our respondents did find some statistics useful. These included rates of benefit claims among migrants, effects on wages, effects on jobs and the economic contribution of migrants through taxes. They also wanted more information from which to answer their own questions about immigration. These related to a number of current narratives around selective migration versus free movement, ‘welfare tourism’ and the idea that our services are under strain.

Our research suggests that statistics can play a useful role in the immigration debate when linked closely to specific issues that are of direct concern to the public. There is a role for careful and accurate explanation of the evidence, and indeed there is considerable demand for this among people who are interested in immigration but do not have strong preconceptions. At the same time, there was a clear message from the focus groups that statistics should be kept simple. Participants also wanted to be sure that the statistics they were given were from credible and unbiased sources.

The public is ready for a more sophisticated public debate on immigration

The appetite for facts and interest in having an informed debate was clear, but can views be changed through fact-based evidence? We found that when situated within a facts-based discussion, our participants questioned some common misconceptions about the impact of immigration on jobs, pay and services. Participants saw the ‘costs and benefits’ narrative of the video as meaningful, responding particularly to the message that immigrants contribute to their costs through paying taxes. They also talked of a range of other economic, social and cultural contributions. But they also felt that those impacts were not the full story. They were also concerned about the perceived impact of immigration on communities, where issues become more complex, subjective and intangible for statistics to be used in a meaningful way.

Opinion poll findings are often taken as proof that the public cannot have a sensible discussion on immigration and the debate is frequently described as ‘toxic’. But our research suggests that behind headline figures showing concern for its scale there may be both a more nuanced set of views and a real appetite for informed discussion. A small dose of statistics might just help to detoxify the debate. With immigration a deciding factor in how people cast their vote in the forthcoming referendum there can be no better time to try.