IFS exposes Osborne’s Budget
“Regressive” and “not unavoidable”.
By James Macintyre Published 23 June 2010 15:45The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies, not a leftist organisation by any stretch of the imagination, has produced an important reaction paper to yesterday's "emergency" Budget. And contrary to the conventional wisdom, it says the Budget was "somewhat regressive" and adds that the (definitely regressive) VAT cut was "not unavoidable".
This seriously undermines George Osborne's rhetoric around the moves, including that they were indeed "unavoidable" and that the Budget was "progressive" -- a claim that the IFS describes as "debatable".
Read the whole report here.
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21 comments
To balance that, the credit rating organisations say
"Moody's described the budget as "a key step towards reversing the significant deterioration in the government's financial position that occurred over the past two years"
Where as Fitch go onto say the budget would...
"materially strengthen confidence in UK public finances and its AAA status".
So it has been well received in other area's
I'd wait until the knife is well and truly in before relying on opinion polls as justification for this trash budget.
beak,
Those would be the same credit reference agencies which said that sub-prime mortgage leanding was also AAA?
I dont think I've heard a logical reasoned argument for doing anything to please these organisations who have power without responsibility. I believe it was Stanley Baldwin who called that the privaledge of the harlot.
The IFS, to put it bluntly, has tore the budget a new arsehole. It has destroyed the myth being spread by the coalition that it was a "progressive" budget, in fact saying that the most progressive measures of it were those left in from the previous government.
Can't wait for the Orange Tories to blame Labour for it not being "progressive".
http://redrag1.blogspot.com/2010/06/red-rag-ifs-weighs-into-tory-budget-...
I was trying to make the point that it has gone down remarkable well considering the extent of the cuts. This suggests most people accept that cuts have to be made (contrary to Graeme's opnion) however as you say, I am sure they will become less popular as they come in to action.
There is a big differnce between sub prime mortgage lending and a country credit rating. Ignore it at your peril.
"The IFS, to put it bluntly, has tore the budget a new arsehole"
Hardly!
Well like I say, ask people what they think when they feel the pain once the knife is in, a point you seem to recognise Beak.
I don't think the electorate have any problem with cuts, a lot of people accepted we'd end up paying more tax under Labour's plans to increase tax. It's not so much the cuts but what they are choosing to cut which is the bone of contention. There would be a much greater consensus of agreement if the cuts were more evenly spread; but they are not.
The currently banded argument that a hike in VAT is proportionate and therefore hits the better off simply isn't comparable. An extra 2.5% to the well off on a luxury item is a very different set of circumstances to say a person with less money having to buy an essential item like a replacement cooker. It'll do a great deal of damage to private sector retail and I wonder how the motor trade will be affected too.
People haven't got the plastic anymore so people are looking very carefully at what's in their wallet. I accept this is right but the reality is the VAT hike will be immensely damaging.
The towns are already full of shops which have closed down, it was slowly recovering but the VAT hike will be a retrograde step.
As for opinion polls, the Tories pledged to act on public opinion. The questions asked on these polls must be fair and not leading,there is no credibility in seeking public opinion on the basis of loaded questions designed to extract desired answers; no credibility whatsoever.
This coalition will increasingly lose all credibility by their lame justification of their actions. The Liberals have lost the plot by suddenly agreeing to all that the Tories say.
Whilst the credit rating agencies have given this budget a faily (but not totally) clean bill of health, one of the rightwing press' favourite pressure groups, the IFS, has not.
Plus ca change, Plus ca meme chose.
There are many problems with both this budget, and the underlying assumptions that lead to it. However, as all parties currently look to a redundant Monetarist model to explain and govern our economies, the real point now would surely be to find a general economic model that can take the best from Keynes, and the best from the Austrian school, and calmly find a better way. I dont expect anything like this from the Whig/Tories, but the rest of us have got to make this work.
Or Labour, if you take their 13 years in power into account.
Yes, but luckily we now have time to see the error of our ways, and maybe expel Mandy in the process:)
It is true that New Labour followed the same hackneyed monetarist half-truths(whilst indulging in every politicians game of financial meddling), but there were always a number of Mps and members who opposed this route, and argued for a different policy. As with all parties in power, some who disapproved joined the Government to change it, others were changed by experience, and others stayed quiet for fear of losing place.
The trouble is that since the Orange Book, there is no serious party in parliament that is arguing against a consensus that (oh irony!) has just collapsed.
But surely a shift to the left will make you unelectable?
In 1970, it was "unthinkable", and "unelectable" to challenge the broadly Keynesian economics of successive post-45 governments. By 1979, Monetarism had become the new orthodoxy.
Getting rid of Mandy is just a populist move.(His only mate is George Osborne)
Both left and right wing need to rethink in the light of the past few years, I'm sure you agree.
There is no need to stumble towards some Bennite nightmare a'la 1980, just a sober, reasonable rethink of where we go from here, whilst re-stating first principles. After all, this coalition could be in power for a long time, although I will be doing my damnedest to shorten its tenure.
There has to be a point to getting power. Power itself cannot be the point.
Well, as you can probably guess, I am no fan or Mandy!
I can only think of one, and he delivered this budget!
Maybe you shoul;d be worried as to Osbornes' judgement?
Have a a look at UK polling report.
"Overall 50% thought that the budget was fair, compared to 27% who thought it was unfair"
"52% of respondants thought the Lib dems were right to back the budget, this included 69% of their own voters."
Interesting the one where there is less leading question showed government approval up from 41% at the start of the week to 46% now. As I said this is remarkable considering the size of the cuts and shows the public seem to accept the the situation (currently)
50% think this budget fair right now, before it really comes into effect, and during a new governments honeymoon first year.
These cuts have been trailed for weeks, and posed as the only solution to our problems, with little or no public debate as to the possible consequences.
I wouldnt be to sanguine of this situation remaining intact for too long beak...
Well I appreciate your emphasis on the word 'currently'; for the real determining factor is when it comes to the inevitable and frightening 'crunch' moment. Contrary to some media hype, we are not a workshy nation. I, for one, enjoy my job immensely and feel it's a worthwhile job that I do. However, like many others I await news of whether I'll be in a job in October. It's not just the money I'd miss (and be deeply troubled by), but the immense satisfaction as well. It's when you take all this away from people that they lose all sense of purpose and pride, that's when the polls will portray a different figure. But if the consensus of approval is as high as you say that's good because the markets are all reliant on confidence. I think the Liberal following will start to fade when they start to get down to the other core issues such as Trident and so forth where their supporters will want to see their beliefs upheld.
It was clear from last night's televised post budget debate with the Cameron and Clegg clones that the wider discontent is with Clegg. People seem to be seething at the way he blatantly lied his way into bed with Cameron. There is something incredibly weak about the way Clegg comes across and Cameron is such a pathological liar; he actually believes what he says is the truth. Clegg looked very troubled as his conscience got to him. The way they look at one another for approval before they speak is both pathetic and amusing.
What people don't like is being lied to; people don't like being conned. Their plans on economic revival won't work, people will eventually realise that. The public surely can't grow fond of these two and all the fake messages they send out?
''There is a big differnce between sub prime mortgage lending and a country credit rating. Ignore it at your peril.''
The credit rating agencies are completely discredited over the sub-prime lending fiasco. The only reason to ''ignore them at your peril' is because the same idiots who weilded financial power then still do and still dictate an entire economic strategy based on these unelected charlatans wretched proclomations.
How long for leading LibDems, not those in the government, to start fighting the lunacy of Osborne. For instance Simon Hughes is too much of a gentleman - he should be crying foul, and shouting the odds. Look - apart from old "beak" who grovels for the Tories - it is plainly to see for everyone that Obsorne has gone far beyond a sensible package of cuts, not than he had to, more than was "unavoidable".
"Look - apart from old "beak" who grovels for the Tories - it is plainly to see for everyone that Obsorne has gone far beyond a sensible package of cuts, not than he had to, more than was "unavoidable"."
I'd check the opinion polls Grame, before making a fool of yourself.
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