Labour stays strong in Scotland as coalition fails to fly
First poll since general election indicates that only Labour can save the Union.
By James Macintyre Published 07 June 2010 14:45A fascinating new poll for the Herald shows that, despite its defeat nationally, Labour remains solid north of the border, where the majority of the Scottish public's long-held disdain for the Tories has not been dimmed by the Con-Lib coalition that has caused so much excitement in Westminster.
Brian Currie reports:
The first poll since the general election shows the SNP falling behind Labour and no sign of a Cameron-Clegg bounce for the Conservatives or the Lib Dems in Scotland.
The poll, by TNS-BMRB, shows Labour ahead of the SNP on both the first-past-the-votes and regional list votes for the Scottish Parliament.
The research, carried out between 26 May and 1 June, puts Labour on 45 per cent in a rise of 8 points since a corresponding poll in January, and the SNP on 29 per cent -- a drop from 35 per cent, on first-past-the-post votes.
On the regional list Labour is on 41 per cent -- a rise of 4 per cent -- while the SNP has dropped 2 points to 28 per cent. The shift towards Labour maintains a trend in its favour from a low of 29 per cent in April last year. At that point the SNP was comfortably ahead on 41 per cent but that has gradually eroded and the latest dip suggests the party's honeymoon with the Scottish electorate is at an end.
There was no spin-off from the popularity in England of UK coalition leaders David Cameron and Nick Clegg for either the Tories or the Lib Dems, with both hovering at around 13 per cent and 12 per cent respectively in both votes.
Chris Eynon, of TNS-BRMB, said that with less than a year to go until the Scottish Parliament elections next May the poll figures would be encouraging for Labour but of "significant concern" to SNP leaders.
Although the SNP is doing relatively badly, it remains a danger, precisely because Labour is out of office: I have long believed that, despite David Cameron's professed commitment to the Union, the 300-year-old Scottish-English alliance will be most threatened by a Tory government that has nothing strategically to lose and everything to gain from English independence.
This poll seems to show that, a year before the next Scottish elections, Labour is the party that stands in the way of the SNP and its dream of break-up.
It is likely that despair at Westminster governance in Scotland will be enhanced by the new government, despite the Tories' (wise) determination to make sure the Scottish Secretary post is not occupied by one of their own (Danny Alexander was replaced by Michael Moore after Alexander took David Laws's job at the Treasury).
For its own sake, but also for the sake of a rich social, economic and political alliance that is far greater than the sum of its parts, Labour must urgently become the party of the Union.
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52 comments
There is then hope for Labour. As long as we can retain our base in in Scotland then we still have a platform. Labour has to win back and keep hold of the Metropolitan Cities and Towns and build from there. The Tories will do their best to gerrymander the boundaries and reduce number of MPs to their advantage.
Not voting Liebour then !
Fryed should be fried then, bolshie should be bolshy AAH if you want to be picky about spelling - people in glass houses and all that.
Very witty AAH, I concede a smile crossed my face albeit momentarily. By the way, I'm my mother's daughter not your old son!
Lou, you missed one out from our humour inducing friend....
"Just helping you out on the old speling front, you know how I like to be helpful"
That'll be another typing error then AHH, speling rather than spelling?
Why don't you just use the spell checker (sorry 'typing error' checker) AHH!
I've made a few typing errors myself since Nick, it's the shock of passing a smile instead of a frown at AAH!
I know Lou! I wouldn't worry about a bit of word slippage, I'm more worried about my conscience at finding humour in said words of wisdom!
There will always be hope for Labour if they can sort themselves out, elect a new leader who is a credible challenge to the Tories and the Lib Dems. Fight for the rights of the working class not forgetting their roots. Stay out of the mire of the expenses scandal. Come up with policies that we can understand and identify with, fight the SNP and Tories at every turn. Show them up for what they are self serving politicians.
Hi Ray & Nick,
Sorry I missed the thread.
Over ten million pounds will be paid out in settlements I believe. My only points left to make are, what about the rest of us, will we get such sizeable pay offs and resettlement grants when we lose our public sector jobs?
I agree about a specified apartment block for out of London MPs.
I agree about the outside interests,an MP should be working for his constituents and country and not for any financial reward in any other way by sitting on boards, advisory committees and the rest.
Hi Nick Hi Lou, I have been away most of the day but I see you have been busy. I was looking at the other bloggs to see if anything was picked up about our retiring MP's 218 to be precise I cannot say in all heart that they are all crooks only the one's so far that we know about in the last four years as that is how far they would go back with their expense claims and that was bad enough. My cousin has always maintained it should have gone back further to see the real extent of their greed. Back to the point our retiring MP's are being given severence pay of £36,000 each as a golden handshake to allow then time to find and settle into a new job if they can find one ! each one regardless of service receives a gold plated pension not sure how much in the region of £47,000.00 in the case of John Mason SNP who lost his seat in Shettleston Glasgow at the last election had been in the job approximately 2 years qualifies for all of the above, not bad work if you can get it did not even have the time to fiddle his expenses. in all it has been estimated that the cost will be in the region of £700,00 in golden handshakes alone with a total cost in pension contributions of something like £10,000,000 pounds. Now there is somewhere you could make savings. I know of very few jobs where you get that kind of money after leaving your job unless of course you are a banker. What kind of job would you have to be in or what kind of contributions would you have to make in two years to get a pension of £47,000.00. It has been stated by Cameron that this kind of severence pay is to be reviewed, we will wait and see.
Hi Ray, I'd like to see MP's have to undergo a proper qualification in economics (that would be goodbye to Mr Cameron I think). That should be a prerequisite of them being allowed to stand; a proper level of competence. I don't see why they shouldn't have a decent fixed salary rated to their position of responsibility. Given all they earn I can't quite see why they shouldn't just have to set up a private pension like the rest of us are meant to. The mind boggles at why second homes were allowed to be so open to abuse. What would be wrong with giving them a fixed rate for a reasonable flat above their constituent office, Second class rail travel or an agreed mileage rate?
And as for staying in London; can't quite see they can't use a number of unemployed builders to knock up a reasonable apartment block somewhere near Westminster where they could stay when their presence in the house is required. Outside interests should be banned or restricted to sitting on boards of worthwhile voluntary organisations for which they should receive no pay. If they are so passionate about the job they do, they'll do it regardless of loss of perks. Just why are they seen as such a special case?
Any breach of the rules should be subject to normal grievance and misconduct procedures, that's the norm in both public and private sectors. They have no right to privilege, no right at all.
This, in my view, would be a proper clean up. It would also put the right people at the heart of decision-making, not greedy self indulgent and out of touch (often corrupt) individuals who are in touch with the voter.
And AAH; you've slipped up again....it's Allah, remember....I reminded you of that the other day? Do listen to your ol uncle Nick eh, you know how I try and look after you?
Hi Nick, Good to see upi are still around at this late hour and as usual finger on the pulse of how real people feel.The Lib Dem MP in my area ( I did not vote for her )has rent a flat near the House of Commons and charges us rent and that is a reasonable position to take, she redacted her expense claims as well. If I remember rightly did they not build Porticullis House for MP's to do admin and it cost a fortune ? they could as has been suggested provide some type of hostel accommodation for MP's if debates go long into the night rather than go home to their constituences they could have bed and breakfast in the hostel then go to the Commons. They have been so used to the gravy train that they find it hard to come off it at our expense. Gordon Jackson was a high flying QC in Scotland and became a MSP for the Labour Party he was conspicious by his absence in the chamber and it was noticable, the reason for this was he tried unsuccessfully to hold down two jobs. The reason was being a QC was more lucrative he was given the option one or the other guess which one he choose. You should be in politics because you have a genuine desire to want to help people, the less well off, the electorate who have no voice. Not as an interesting hobby or for party politics but a genuine desire to make this country a better place a place that we all can be proud to live in, a country that respects its MP'S MSP and the decisions that they make on our behalf, to show we are a caring society who look after our unemployed, elderly and our sick.
It's amazing Raymond how some of us seem to be able to condemn Devine (who has yet to be tried) on the following charges:
Mr Devine, MP for Livingston, is facing prosecution on two charges. The first charge alleges that between July 2008 and April 2009, Mr Devine dishonestly claimed £3,240 for cleaning services using false invoices. The second charge alleges that in March 2009, he dishonestly claimed £5,505 for stationery using false invoices.
Whilst elsewhere protecting a certain Yeovil based liberal for fiddling £40,000 by failing to declare his landlord was in fact his 'bum chum' (not my words, they are 'squealed' by our most eloquent contributor), seemingly taking a view that this is a man of 'honour'.
Now I'd call that slightly bizarre, wouldn't you?
HiNick and Lou this thread is about done I will look at other bloggs on this site.
Hi Nick, I have enjoyed reading your other posts elsewhere on this blog, you have a real handle on the current political situation, you show a good political analysis something that others cannot always see even when the facts are staring them in the face. You cannot use the words honourable in the same sentence when you are discussing David Laws. What was it you said there is David Laws and David Law !
Nick, personally I have no time for any politician who misuses taxpayers money from any political party, I know that the Telegraph have a lot more on file with the discs that where passed to them BEFORE the civil servants where told to redact the details from their expense claims it is all in the book I told you about " No Expense Spared " there is lots and lots of detail still to come out.
Thank you Raymond, I'm pleased someone likes what I write; this could be a really intelligent forum if only.........you know what or rather who I refer to!
Just to add to that Raymond, the micro milligram of faith I had in Cameron and Clegg went straight out of the window when they hyped that thief as honourable, can't believe that more wasn't made of it.
If this poll is correct, and not a rogue result, it is excellent news that the SNP are continuing to lose support following their disastrous Westminster campaign.
Their obsession with independence, and their core strategy of provoking hatred and resentment to gain support, has only resulted in causing bitter division among Scots.
The time of the 'small independent country' has passed as nations around the world rush into major regional blocs.
It's time for Salmond and the SNP to wake up, grow up and join the rest of us in the 21st Century.
Will someone please call the Community Blog Nurse........someone's having very little sleep it seems!
Hi Nick, It would appear that another blogger appears a little jealous of your success in correctly assessing the political situation and producing even balanced argument and discussion without resorting to what amounts to jealously, I can understand their problem by not being able to string two words together that does not contain some invective. I for one have made my decision not to respond in kind. I am not saying that I am better just more sensible than someone who cannot understand reasoned arguement and appears unable to forge even online understanding of someone elses's point of view without resorting to what amounts to no more than rehashed, sterotyping of a particular group in society with any facts to back a particular assertion.
In fact this person appears almost to look up to you for your approval as most of the comments try to elicit a response from you strange is it not, I for one value your opinion and your disemmination of the fact's from the fiction, unlike the other blogger who cant and appears to live in some parallel universe. I will go enjoying what you have to say even at the wrath of the other blogger who has not completed his Microsoft Word " copy and paste " classes
Do you really think that only Labour can save the union?
''For its own sake but also for the sake of a rich social, economic and political alliance that is far greater than the sum of its parts, Labour must urgently become the party of the Union.''
Who cares ? Ho Hum !!
Liebour needs Scotland to win power in England
But Scotland does not need liebour, a bunch of phoneys and hypocrites.
Steve the witless wonder.
Erroneous thinking.
''The time of the 'small independent country' has passed as nations around the world rush into major regional blocs.''
HUH ? Ever heard of the break up of the British Empire, the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslavkia ?
Scotland and England have completely different politics. England has never wanted Labour and Scotland has completely given up on the Tories for generations. The union is just forcing both countries to have something they don't want. I'm sorry NS but you'll never win over England with your politics. You need the union more than Scotland.
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Scotland can never identify itself with the Tories, not just through the Thatcher and that was bad enough, closing the pits, car making, steel production etc,etc the poll tax imposing it on the Scot's as trial before unleashing it on the rest of the UK. Hard working Scottish people who have personally experienced financial hardship from unemployment and low wages can never identify with the fox hunting millionaire set, we have nothing in common with them. Scottish socialists fought for the rights of working class people Tories play politics as a game, they have NO interest in the working class no matter how they dress themselves up they cannot disguise the fact that it is only self interest and those who are well off are they interested in.
I have little time for Alex Salmond or independence it might have made sense when we had Scotland's oil we could have been financially independent in times of recession to tide us through until the economy picked up again. What I will say for Salmond it has been their manifesto pledge for more years than I care to remember to have an independent Scotland and they have not changed their views nor watered down their policy on it, unlike the Lib Dems and the Tories who have sold out for power at any price including their manifesto pledges, the Lib Dems will get nothing out of this colition only heart ache and when we vote in Scotland for the Holyrood elections not only do I hope for a Tory free Scotland but a Lib Dem one as well for remember vote Lib Dem get a Tory.
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