Might Ed Miliband “eclipse” his brother David and become Labour leader? This is the sensitive question posed by a characteristically insightful piece in today’s Independent by Andy Grice, the best reporter in Westminster. Andy has gone further than any other journalist in outlining the delicate nuances in the relationship between the brothers, and, in turn, their chances of leading Labour. Andy writes:
[The] word in Labour circles is that Ed is no longer trailing in his brother’s wake. Indeed, some senior figures believe he has already overtaken him in the game that increasingly occupies Labour minds as the party appears to head for a general election defeat – its future leadership stakes. It is a highly sensitive subject for the two sons of the late Marxist historian Ralph Miliband. Until recently, it had been assumed that David Miliband was certain to be a contender, the most likely standard-bearer for the Blairite wing of the party. But Labour’s tectonic plates are moving.Allies of the Foreign Secretary dismiss speculation that he has twice missed his moment – by backing off a year ago after appearing to raise the flag of rebellion against Gordon Brown, and then refusing to join his ally James Purnell in a joint resignation in June which could well have brought down the Prime Minister.
When David appeared to raise the “flag of rebellion” last year, it must have been a testing time for Ed, who remains loyal to Brown not for blind reasons like some of the Prime Minister’s darker allies, but because the Climate Change Secretary genuinely believes in Brown as the right man to lead at this time. Ed Miliband proved he was not his brother’s keeper by being the only minister to defend Brown at one of the lowest moments of the latter’s troubled premiership.
But, as Andy explains, this does not make him hostile to his brother; far from it:
The leadership question is doubly difficult for Ed Miliband, who has instructed his staff not to even speculate about it. He could not entertain a move to topple Mr Brown, for whom he worked as an adviser before becoming an MP. And he feels equally loyal to his brother, whom he would feel duty bound to support in a leadership contest after Mr Brown had stood down.
Yet friends are quietly telling him that David will not be leader because he is seen as too Blairite. In contrast, Ed Miliband is seen as on the party’s soft left, and could be in a strong position to capitalise on a reaction against New Labour that would probably follow an election defeat. Nor is he seen as too close to Mr Brown.
“Whether he likes it or not, people are buying shares in him,” one friend of Ed Miliband said yesterday. “And they are selling them in David.”
I have tipped Ed Miliband for years, and wrote in 2008 that: “Ed Miliband will emerge as the up-and-coming politician of 2009 and come to be regarded as Brown’s natural successor.”
However, there remains the question of whether David — still widely seen as the strongest condender to replace Brown, especially if the Prime Minister were to be toppled before a general election — would, or should, ever make way for his younger brother.
Andy Grice:
Ed Miliband does not want to eclipse David. He finds it difficult to imagine himself overtaking him and could not stand against him…David Miliband’s allies insists he would still be a strong runner in a leadership race and dismiss Westminster gossip that he is losing interest in the top job and might even be tempted by a job on the European or world stage after his spell at the Foreign Office.
Friends say he has lots of ideas, based on empowering individuals, to unveil in a leadership contest but cannot disclose now as he would be accused of disloyalty to Mr Brown.
Allies say it is premature to write him off. One said: “Ed’s time will come. But it’s David’s turn first.”
It is probably true that it is “David’s turn first”. However, in the irrational world of modern British politics, could one brother succeed another as leader of a party or prime minister? Given that the Miliband brothers are among the most talented ministers in the Cabinet today, you have to hope so.
Both have key attributes: David is authoritative, his grasp of detail and policy thinking second to none; Ed is warm, unusually human, and naturally progressive. But, alas, the rather grim likelihood is that — one day — they will have to decide between themselves which one of them will get the top job.