There will be no Lib Dem U-turn on boundary changes

The offer of state funding (or anything else) will not induce Clegg to change his stance.

Without the introduction of the proposed boundary changes, there's almost no chance of the Conservatives winning a majority at the next election - the party would need a lead of around seven points on a uniform swing. With the changes, however, it would need one of just four. So it's no surprise that some Tories are still hopeful that they can persuade the Lib Dems to renege on their opposition to the reforms. 

Today's FT reports that the Conservatives are planning a "cash-for-seats" offer under which the Liberal Democrats would approve the new boundaries in return for the introduction of state funding for political parties. So woeful is the Lib Dems' financial situation that the Tories believe Nick Clegg will have no choice but to withdraw his veto. "They are basically out of money," one minister tells the paper, while another adds: "There is a plot". That the Lib Dems' finances are increasingly strained is beyond doubt. As Rafael noted in August, the party's entry into government has seen it deprived of the "short money" made available by the state to opposition parties (something that will cost it £9m over the course of the parliament), while the loss of a quarter of its membership in 2011 helped result in a deficit of £299,964 last year.

But even with this in mind, it's hard to see the offer of state funding (or anything else) inducing Clegg to change his stance. In August, after the abandonment of House of Lords reform, he said:

Coalition works on mutual respect; it is a reciprocal arrangement, a two-way street. So I have told the Prime Minister that when, in due course, parliament votes on boundary changes for the 2015 election I will be instructing my party to oppose them.

In September, when rumours of a deal first surfaced, he declared: "Nothing will change my mind on that." His stance was overwhelmingly endorsed in a motion at the party's conference last month. For these reasons, Lib Dem Scottish Secretary Michael Moore was almost certainly right when he told the Today programme this morning that there is "no prospect of any kind of deal like that." A "cash-for-seats" agreement would only confirm Clegg's reputation as a turncoat, while making his party look irredeemably grubby.

Last month, whilst apologising for breaking his pledge not to support an increase in tuition fees, Clegg declared: "I will never again make a pledge unless as a party we are absolutely clear about how we can keep it." And the pledge to vote against the boundary changes is one that will be kept.

Nick Clegg has previously stated that "nothing" will persuade him to drop his opposition to the propsoed boundary changes. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Labour's establishment suspects a Momentum conspiracy - they're right

Bernie Sanders-style organisers are determined to rewire the party's machine.  

If you wanted to understand the basic dynamics of this year’s Labour leadership contest, Brighton and Hove District Labour Party is a good microcosm. On Saturday 9 July, a day before Angela Eagle was to announce her leadership bid, hundreds of members flooded into its AGM. Despite the room having a capacity of over 250, the meeting had to be held in three batches, with members forming an orderly queue. The result of the massive turnout was clear in political terms – pro-Corbyn candidates won every position on the local executive committee. 

Many in the room hailed the turnout and the result. But others claimed that some in the crowd had engaged in abuse and harassment.The national party decided that, rather than first investigate individuals, it would suspend Brighton and Hove. Add this to the national ban on local meetings and events during the leadership election, and it is easy to see why Labour seems to have an uneasy relationship with mass politics. To put it a less neutral way, the party machine is in a state of open warfare against Corbyn and his supporters.

Brighton and Hove illustrates how local activists have continued to organise – in an even more innovative and effective way than before. On Thursday 21 July, the week following the CLP’s suspension, the local Momentum group organised a mass meeting. More than 200 people showed up, with the mood defiant and pumped up.  Rather than listen to speeches, the room then became a road test for a new "campaign meetup", a more modestly titled version of the "barnstorms" used by the Bernie Sanders campaign. Activists broke up into small groups to discuss the strategy of the campaign and then even smaller groups to organise action on a very local level. By the end of the night, 20 phonebanking sessions had been planned at a branch level over the following week. 

In the past, organising inside the Labour Party was seen as a slightly cloak and dagger affair. When the Labour Party bureaucracy expelled leftwing activists in past decades, many on went further underground, organising in semi-secrecy. Now, Momentum is doing the exact opposite. 

The emphasis of the Corbyn campaign is on making its strategy, volunteer hubs and events listings as open and accessible as possible. Interactive maps will allow local activists to advertise hundreds of events, and then contact people in their area. When they gather to phonebank in they will be using a custom-built web app which will enable tens of thousands of callers to ring hundreds of thousands of numbers, from wherever they are.

As Momentum has learned to its cost, there is a trade-off between a campaign’s openness and its ability to stage manage events. But in the new politics of the Labour party, in which both the numbers of interested people and the capacity to connect with them directly are increasing exponentially, there is simply no contest. In order to win the next general election, Labour will have to master these tactics on a much bigger scale. The leadership election is the road test. 

Even many moderates seem to accept that the days of simply triangulating towards the centre and getting cozy with the Murdoch press are over. Labour needs to reach people and communities directly with an ambitious digital strategy and an army of self-organising activists. It is this kind of mass politics that delivered a "no" vote in Greece’s referendum on the terms of the Eurozone bailout last summer – defying pretty much the whole of the media, business and political establishment. 

The problem for Corbyn's challenger, Owen Smith, is that many of his backers have an open problem with this type of mass politics. Rather than investigate allegations of abuse, they have supported the suspension of CLPs. Rather than seeing the heightened emotions that come with mass mobilisations as side-effects which needs to be controlled, they have sought to joins unconnected acts of harassment, in order to smear Jeremy Corbyn. The MP Ben Bradshaw has even seemed to accuse Momentum of organising a conspiracy to physically attack Labour MPs.

The real conspiracy is much bigger than that. Hundreds of thousands of people are arriving, enthusiastic and determined, into the Labour party. These people, and their ability to convince the communities of which they are a part, threaten Britain’s political equilibrium, both the Conservatives and the Labour establishment. When the greatest hope for Labour becomes your greatest nightmare, you have good call to feel alarmed.