There will be no Lib Dem U-turn on boundary changes

The offer of state funding (or anything else) will not induce Clegg to change his stance.

Without the introduction of the proposed boundary changes, there's almost no chance of the Conservatives winning a majority at the next election - the party would need a lead of around seven points on a uniform swing. With the changes, however, it would need one of just four. So it's no surprise that some Tories are still hopeful that they can persuade the Lib Dems to renege on their opposition to the reforms. 

Today's FT reports that the Conservatives are planning a "cash-for-seats" offer under which the Liberal Democrats would approve the new boundaries in return for the introduction of state funding for political parties. So woeful is the Lib Dems' financial situation that the Tories believe Nick Clegg will have no choice but to withdraw his veto. "They are basically out of money," one minister tells the paper, while another adds: "There is a plot". That the Lib Dems' finances are increasingly strained is beyond doubt. As Rafael noted in August, the party's entry into government has seen it deprived of the "short money" made available by the state to opposition parties (something that will cost it £9m over the course of the parliament), while the loss of a quarter of its membership in 2011 helped result in a deficit of £299,964 last year.

But even with this in mind, it's hard to see the offer of state funding (or anything else) inducing Clegg to change his stance. In August, after the abandonment of House of Lords reform, he said:

Coalition works on mutual respect; it is a reciprocal arrangement, a two-way street. So I have told the Prime Minister that when, in due course, parliament votes on boundary changes for the 2015 election I will be instructing my party to oppose them.

In September, when rumours of a deal first surfaced, he declared: "Nothing will change my mind on that." His stance was overwhelmingly endorsed in a motion at the party's conference last month. For these reasons, Lib Dem Scottish Secretary Michael Moore was almost certainly right when he told the Today programme this morning that there is "no prospect of any kind of deal like that." A "cash-for-seats" agreement would only confirm Clegg's reputation as a turncoat, while making his party look irredeemably grubby.

Last month, whilst apologising for breaking his pledge not to support an increase in tuition fees, Clegg declared: "I will never again make a pledge unless as a party we are absolutely clear about how we can keep it." And the pledge to vote against the boundary changes is one that will be kept.

Nick Clegg has previously stated that "nothing" will persuade him to drop his opposition to the propsoed boundary changes. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Tony Blair suggests second EU referendum: "Remain voters are not an elite"

The former Labour PM said the facts of Brexit may change minds. 

Tony Blair has floated the idea of a second EU referendum after the terms of the Brexit deal has become clear.

The former Labour Prime Minister told the BBC "you can't just dimiss the 16m people" who voted Remain.

He said: "If it becomes clear that this is either a deal that doesn't make it worth our while leaving, or alternatively a deal that's going to be so serious in its implications people may decide they don't want to go, there's got to be some way, either through Parliament, or an election, or possibly through another referendum, in which people express their view."

Asked whether he was telling the 17m voters who wanted to leave the EU that they were wrong, he said: "You can't just dismiss the 16m people either and say their views are of no account. 

"And by the way, that 16m don't represent an elite, they represent people who genuinely believe that in the 21st century for Britain to leave the biggest political union and the biggest commercial market right on our doorstep is a serious mistake."

There is no way the Brexit decision can be reversed "unless it becomes clear that once people see the facts they change their mind," he said.

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.