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The next step in building a Labour majority

The party must set out a handful of big, signature proposals that exemplify how and why it would govern.

Ed Miliband waits to speak at the annual Labour Party conference in Manchester.
Ed Miliband waits to speak at the annual Labour Party conference in Manchester. Photograph: Getty Images.

It’s become well known that Labour’s solid lead in the opinion polls is down mainly to the backing of left-leaning former Liberal Democrats. This year, Ed Miliband has proved he can unite socially liberal, egalitarian voters and that there could be enough of them to carry him to Downing Street.

No doubt if Nick Clegg is ejected before 2015, some former Lib Dems will switch back. But it would take a huge reversal for the Conservatives to end up with a majority. In 2010, after all, they could not win despite a seven per cent lead over Labour. Commentators have been slow to catch up with the electoral maths, but in the year ahead the media will have to learn to write of Miliband as a conceivable, even probable, Prime Minister. The Labour Party, however, must not settle for the script the pundits are busy writing, under which it limps into office as a minority party dependent on others to govern.

Instead, in the twelve months ahead, Miliband must turn his attention to potentially sympathetic voters he’s failed to win so far, and there are plenty of them out there. Fabian research found that a quarter of British adults did not vote Labour in 2010 but are prepared to consider the party next time. Encouragingly, their views on the economy and public services are much closer to those of Labour than Conservative supporters. But only one-in-three of this group currently back Labour, despite Miliband’s lead in the polls.

Winning a convincing working majority will depend on attracting more of them over, especially two types of ‘Labour-ambivalent’: people who didn’t vote in 2010 and floating voters who liked Cameron, the man, not his party. These potential supporters are the least ideological of voters so the answer is not a turn to the right, a move which would simply alienate the support Miliband has already amassed. Instead Labour must do two things, re-learn the language of the doorstep and prove it has a plan for Britain.

Too few people will vote Labour if the party presents itself simply an empty vessel for their discontents with a shambolic government. Ambivalent voters will only be won round in sufficient number by a positive alternative and purposeful leadership. This requires Labour to offer substantive promises not just interesting ideas.

So the party needs to move on from talking ‘themes’, as interesting as ‘pre-distribution’, ‘the squeezed middle’ and ‘responsible capitalism’ may be to those of us who attend Westminster seminars. Instead, in the year ahead, Labour must set out a handful of big, signature proposals that exemplify how and why it would govern, what marks it out from the coalition and how people’s lives would change. The candidates for Labour’s plan include free childcare, a National Care Service, a living wage, a job guarantee scheme for the young or a huge housebuilding programme (each with credible funding plans attached).

Miliband’s model must be 1945 or 1979 when the winning party entered the election with a clear policy programme which captured the public zeitgeist but also heralded a rupture with the past. Making big promises may feel risky, but it also shows substance and decisiveness. These are the qualities which need to register with the millions of Labour-ambivalents. Miliband must remember that unless Labour defines itself early, it will offer a blank canvass for the Conservatives to define it in the worst possible light.

Alongside that, Labour needs to reassess how it looks and feels to the ‘ambivalents’. Today its spokespeople still sound like middle-ranking ministers, the parliamentary party a tribe of professional politicians. New Fabian research shows this is all a huge turn-off, especially to people who declined to vote in 2010.

To reconnect, Labour must reimagine itself as an insurgent force speaking for the people, not a political caste speaking at them. Shifting the tone of Labour politics will not happen overnight, which is why it needs to start now. MPs need to learn to listen more, practice the art of normal conversation, and prove they can make change happen in their own constituencies.

Miliband and those around him understand that the practice of Labour politics must change. Now to make it happen he must order his MPs to get out of Westminster, organise locally, listen better and speak ‘human’.

Andrew Harrop will be challenging Labour policy chiefs Jon Cruddas, Lord Adonis and Angela Eagle at the Fabian Society's “The Shape of Things to Come” fringe event this evening.

1 comment

Davidaslindsay's picture

It’s become well known that Labour’s solid lead in the opinion polls is down mainly to the backing of left-leaning former Liberal Democrats.

Who says? For that matter, who says that there are any such people as left-leaning Lib Dems?

Once upon a time, there was a party which believed in the Welfare State, workers’ rights, trade unionism, the co-operative movement and wider mutualism, consumer protection, strong communities, conservation rather than environmentalism, fair taxation, full employment, pragmatic public ownership, proper local government, and a powerful Parliament, and, at least as an ideal or an aspiration, a base of real property for every household to resist both over-mighty commercial interests and an over-mighty State.

In the pursuit of those objectives, which successfully prevented a Marxist revolution here in one of the two countries that Marx thought most likely to have one, that party was able to accommodate an enormous diversity of perspectives: provincial and metropolitan, rural and urban, religious and secular, socially conservative and socially liberal, foreign policy realist and liberal interventionist, Eurosceptical and Eurofederalist, pro-Commonwealth and pro-American, monarchist and republican, staunchly Unionist and variously separatist-inclined.

Those whose priorities were agriculture, manufacturing and retail, the means of production and distribution, made common cause with those whose priorities were the services sector in general and the financial services sector in particular, the means of exchange. There were people who cherished the United Kingdom’s very considerable and longstanding ties to the Arab world, the memory of the British fallen to terrorist attacks in Palestine, and the Catholic and Orthodox witness of the Arab Christians, including their foundation of Arab nationalism at American Protestant missionary universities. Alongside those worked people who cherished the political project that was like them: staunchly secular and liberal, economically leftish or extremely left-wing, and Ashkenazi Jewish to the core.

That party went into abeyance after the death of John Smith. But it is now back under Ed Miliband, accordingly far ahead in the polls on a permanent basis, and winning local council seats even in Southern villages that it had not contested in 30 years or more.

Only one party now advocates the Union as a first principle, and any concept of English identity. A universal postal service bound up with the monarchy. The Queen’s Highways, rather than toll roads owned by faraway and unstable petrostates. Her Majesty’s Constabulary, rather than the British KGB that is the impending “National Crime Agency”. Its own 1997 manifesto commitment to renationalise the railways. The National Health Service, rather than piecemeal privatised provision by the American healthcare companies that pay key Coalition figures and fund their parties. Keeping Sunday at least as special as the last Conservative Government left it.

The restoration both of energy independence and of the economic basis of paternal authority, through the reopening of the mines promised by Ed Miliband to one hundred thousand people at the Durham Miners’ Gala. The historic regimental system, and aircraft carriers with aircraft on them. No Falkland Islands oil to Argentina. The State action necessary in order to maintain the work of charities and of churches. The State action necessary in order to maintain a large and thriving middle class. A referendum on continued membership of the EU, explicitly and repeatedly ruled out by David Cameron and William Hague, but never by Ed Miliband. A free vote on the redefinition of marriage, very recently and half-heartedly conceded to Conservative MPs, but always guaranteed to Labour ones, whatever a London-only newspaper effectively run out of Boris Johnson’s office might pretend.

Labour is reverting to its historical norm as the voice and vehicle of a many-rooted social democratic patriotism in all directions, inclusive of social and cultural conservatives as well as social and cultural liberals, inclusive of rural as well as urban and suburban voices, inclusive of provincial as well as metropolitan contributions, and inclusive of religious as well as secular insights. The 2010 intake is very largely “classic Labour”, the boys in their dads’ suits having decided to sit out the hard work of Opposition. As a result, Labour has long enjoyed a commanding lead both in the opinion polls and at the actual polls.

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