Are Scottish teenagers more in favour of independence?

The polling evidence suggests not.

The hope among nationalists and the fear among unionists is that the decision to allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote in the Scottish independence referendum will aid the SNP's cause. Young people, it is supposed, are more susceptible to Alex Salmond's patriotic appeal than their older compatriots. But the polling evidence we have suggests that this is not the case.

A survey by the Mail on Sunday last month found that support for independence stands at just 26% among 14 and 15-year-olds (who will be 16 or 17 in 2014), compared with 27% among the rest of the population. As pollster John Curtice noted:

This shows the assumptions made by some that younger voters tend towards independence is some way out. The crucial group are those over the age of 60, who are more inclined to vote. We may yet see a deal which extends the franchise for the referendum but we don’t know if the people in this category will turn up and vote, as turnout among younger voters is traditionally low.

The SNP will, naturally, hope to shift these numbers over the course of the campaign. But it's already clear that allowing young Scots to vote won't be the game changer that the party needs.

First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond carries a sliver putter signifying the next location of the Ryder Cup. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Cabinet audit: what does the appointment of Liam Fox as International Trade Secretary mean for policy?

The political and policy-based implications of the new Secretary of State for International Trade.

Only Nixon, it is said, could have gone to China. Only a politician with the impeccable Commie-bashing credentials of the 37th President had the political capital necessary to strike a deal with the People’s Republic of China.

Theresa May’s great hope is that only Liam Fox, the newly-installed Secretary of State for International Trade, has the Euro-bashing credentials to break the news to the Brexiteers that a deal between a post-Leave United Kingdom and China might be somewhat harder to negotiate than Vote Leave suggested.

The biggest item on the agenda: striking a deal that allows Britain to stay in the single market. Elsewhere, Fox should use his political capital with the Conservative right to wait longer to sign deals than a Remainer would have to, to avoid the United Kingdom being caught in a series of bad deals. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.