Why the Tory right's "growth plans" won't work
Scrapping workers' rights and deregulating planning laws won't stimulate growth.
By Jon Stone Published 14 September 2012 12:57
Labour may be most associated with calls for a "plan for growth" but recently they’ve been joined by another force: the Conservative right. Liam Fox was in the Times yesterday arguing for one, and the Free Enterprise Group group of backbenchers also have a book out entitled Britannia Unchained. Some of their ideas, however, might be not be helpful.
Cutting taxes for business
Cutting corporation tax has been proposed as a stimulus for business. There are two arguments behind this: firstly, a lower rate might attract foreign direct investment to the UK, and secondly, reducing the tax rate leaves overburdened businesses with more money, which could help them expand and create jobs.
Let’s first remember that any benefits from foreign corporations setting up shop in the UK would take years to filter through, and so not be suitable as a stimulus. In addition, it's not clear that cutting the rate further would attract much new business anyway. At 22%, the UK already has the fourth-lowest headline rate in the G20 after Saudi Arabia, Russia and Turkey. Comparable countries (Germany 31%, USA 41%, Japan 40%, France 35%), who all do far better in terms of domestic industry, all have higher rates. Any gains in competitiveness would be marginal at best.
As a boost to our existing businesses, a corporation tax cut is also largely pointless. This is because businesses have plenty of cash: UK firms are currently net savers and are sitting on a combined total of £754bn. This is not normal for a healthy market economy, where firms should be borrowing to invest. But there are no available investment opportunities, either because of a lack of demand or because of a more fundamental slowdown in the rate of innovation, and firms are just doing what is rational. Pumping them with more cash would be unlikely to have any effect. Since corporation tax is on a percentage of profits, there is also no reason why cutting it would make previously unprofitable investments viable. A cut in the rate would be unlikely to help.
Making it easier to fire people
The main recommendations to come out of the government’s Beecroft Report were ideas like no-fault dismissal and other restrictions on workers' rights. The stated justification is that firms are too scared to take on employees because it is difficult to get rid of them if they are underperforming.
One of the economic trends that ministers have sought to draw attention to is the contrast between growth and employment. Unemployment has been slowly but consistently falling, despite the economy shrinking. The most common explanation for this is because firms are hoarding labour, so they don’t have to reconstruct a skilled workgroup when demand returns in the future. The Bank of England looked at five indicators of labour hoarding and found that there was good evidence to suggest this is what was happening.
If this is the case, then firms are, in aggregate, feeling quite the opposite way that Beecroft suggests they are: hoarding labour beyond the point you need to is not really consistent with being terrified of taking on workers.
Conversely, if you’re suspicious of the Bank’s findings (and why not?) it could be possible that firms desperately want to get rid of these workers but can’t. This is unlikely because overall the UK labour market is pretty flexible (the third least regulated in the OECD according to the CIPD), but if this were true, then a lot of people would lose their jobs as newly liberated firms sacked with abandon. This would make the Beecroft proposals a recipe for unemployment.
Scrapping planning regulations
The Labour left has led calls for a housing stimulus, mainly composed of council housing. But an alternative take on this comes from Tory elements, within and without government. Get rid of planning laws, they say, and market-led housebuilding will commence.
The evidence suggests this policy has been plucked out of thin air. The Local Government Association reports that there are 400,000 homes with planning permission that haven’t been started by developers or have stalled their construction. Last year in London, where demand is highest, London Councils counted around 170,000 homes that had gained planning permission but were not been built.
This is not a picture of a planning bottleneck. It’s also why claimed successes of previous planning reforms that count permissions granted as delivery should be ignored, and why getting rid of more regulations will likely have higher costs than benefits.
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10 comments
They confuse ideological shibboleths with practical prescriptions for growth. Increasing demand is the only solution.
The reason why the Tory Right's ideas won't work is because they won't even be implemented by a Continuity Brown Chancellor and Business Secretary. Continuity Brown won't work either, whether implemented by them or by Miliband and Balls.
You seem to be rather missing the point of the article, which is to suggest that the Tory Right's ideas would not work even if they were to be implemented. As for the idea that Osborne is merely continuing Brown's policies, you seem to have forgotten the fact that when Osborne took office, the economy was coming out of recession. Osborne has put that recovery into reverse with his self-defeating austerity policy.
sometimes on another website a commenter points out that a lot of those leaving comments are bringing their emotional baggage with them, when they leave a comment. this may well be true.
but i would argue that politicians are also bringing their emotional baggage with them when advocating policies.
the problem is that there is reality and there is ideology based solutions, and our politicians are offering us ideology based solutions, that fit perfectly with their belief systems, but do not correspond closely enough with the reality shaped solutions we really need.
and yes the tory right are advocating faith based solutions, as they worship their prophet, whose name cannot be mentioned, as it would seem that t shirts with her name printed on them raise blood pressure enormously amongst her cult of supporters.
our problems with the economy are very complicated, and with the monetarist centre left in charge in the labour party, and the thatcherite right wing dominating the tory party we are caught between two ideological solutions, neither of which are the right one.
so all we can do is wring our hands in despair.......................
Dear all,
As a start-up social entreprise, my mother and I face nothing but disappointment and lack of trust in the human race.
A couple of years ago, mum started drafting a business plan for my "idea".
She attended mentoring classes in Brixton which is labour stronghold, but was told to stop signing for her JSA since she was going to start the business. No financial plan was made, no working capital was given to her yet the government keeps on telling us they are supporting small businesses. Mum is contemplating taking legal action against the government if no action to rectify the mistake is taken. She's got an ongoing appeal with the upper tribunal and is awaiting her JSA to be reinstated while she is actively looking for a full time job. My daddy is the managing director of my charity but he lives in Manchester and he's got a fll time job, He pays me child maintenance but the money he pays is not enough for both mum and I.
I will appreciate your assistance in resolving the matter for us.
Kind regards
Joelle-D Logan
Young enterpreneur
This is intended to be a joke, isn't it? As a 'young entrepreneur' you should be equipped to work your way through this. Your mother is appealing on JSA - though what she has to appeal about if she withdrew her claim, I have no idea. If your father isn't paying enough maintenance, then go to court to ask for the order to be varied.
If the ability to get rid of under performing workers were to be extended to M.P.s (and why not?), there would be an enormous queue outside the jobcentre.
When do we the taxpayers and constituents get the power of recall?
As long as we traipse along to the polling stations to elect worthless, self serving parasites like Liam Fox, then we deserve everything we get.
Nick Boles should put his brain in gear before he starts to speak. The big constraint on housing is not planning but lack of mortgage availability. Cutting corporation tax however is an emminently sensible policy. China's economy started to take over when they introduced a three year exemption from corporation tax for all new businesses - didn't matter whether it was GE starting up a new business or a local entrepreneur. Making it easier to fire people I can understand but only if you have sensible economic & employment policies whereby getting people actually into work is a priority.
Put your own brain in gear. There are not many mugs prepared to pay today's silly house prices (unless they're simply swapping one house for another). Only BTL landlords who think their purchase will be subsidised by a large dose of Housing Benefit handed to their tenants can make sense of the numbers. Mortgage availability really isn't the issue. Bubble house prices is the issue.
Not much chance of house prices falling much when the really big bubble is the stock market and banks. At least houses are real, while governments have been pumping all of your money into stocks and banks so that the rich do not suffer. If reallity ever kicks in the stock market will fall by half, and many banks will cease to exist; but the property will still be there.