Why the "bigot" row has done Clegg no good

The right are outraged, the left think he's a flip-flopper.

When Gordon Brown described voter Gillian Duffy as a "bigoted woman", Nick Clegg declared that he would have to "answer" for his comments. Now the Deputy Prime Minister is having to do the same. A press release issued in advance of a speech given by Clegg on gay marriage suggested that he would describe opponents of the policy as "bigots". It read:

Continued trouble in the economy gives the bigots a stick to beat us with, as they demand we “postpone” the equalities agenda in order to deal with “the things people really care about”. As if pursuing greater equality and fixing the economy simply cannot happen at once.

But after Clegg's remarks prompted predictable outrage among some on the right, his office issued a "recall" email to journalists, followed by a corrected email. The latter replaced the words "gives the bigots a stick to beat us with, as they demand" with "leads some people to demand". A spokesman for Clegg added that "This was not something the deputy prime minister has said. It's not something he was ever going to say because it's not something he believes. It was removed from the draft copy, that should never have been sent out, for that very reason."

The damage, however, was done. Today, both the Mail and the Telegraph splash on the story, in an assault on the Lib Dem leader reminiscent of that before the last election. So it's worth asking whether the row will help or hinder Clegg. For many on the left, "bigot" is the appropriate term for those who believe that same-sex couples should be denied the right to marry. A reminder that the Deputy Prime Minister feels the same way should, however briefly, improve his standing among liberals. Yet the fact that the Cabinet Office withdrew the email means that Clegg is enjoying few plaudits this morning. Instead, the affair is seen as further confirmation of his flip-flop approach to politics (cf. tuition fees, the NHS reforms). Once again, the Deputy PM has performed the dubious feat of uniting the left and the right in loathing for him.

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg denied that he planned to refer to opponents of gay marriage as "bigots". Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty Images
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Autumn Statement 2015: George Osborne abandons his target

How will George Osborne close the deficit after his U-Turns? Answer: he won't, of course. 

“Good governments U-Turn, and U-Turn frequently.” That’s Andrew Adonis’ maxim, and George Osborne borrowed heavily from him today, delivering two big U-Turns, on tax credits and on police funding. There will be no cuts to tax credits or to the police.

The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that, in total, the government gave away £6.2 billion next year, more than half of which is the reverse to tax credits.

Osborne claims that he will still deliver his planned £12bn reduction in welfare. But, as I’ve written before, without cutting tax credits, it’s difficult to see how you can get £12bn out of the welfare bill. Here’s the OBR’s chart of welfare spending:

The government has already promised to protect child benefit and pension spending – in fact, it actually increased pensioner spending today. So all that’s left is tax credits. If the government is not going to cut them, where’s the £12bn come from?

A bit of clever accounting today got Osborne out of his hole. The Universal Credit, once it comes in in full, will replace tax credits anyway, allowing him to describe his U-Turn as a delay, not a full retreat. But the reality – as the Treasury has admitted privately for some time – is that the Universal Credit will never be wholly implemented. The pilot schemes – one of which, in Hammersmith, I have visited myself – are little more than Potemkin set-ups. Iain Duncan Smith’s Universal Credit will never be rolled out in full. The savings from switching from tax credits to Universal Credit will never materialise.

The £12bn is smaller, too, than it was this time last week. Instead of cutting £12bn from the welfare budget by 2017-8, the government will instead cut £12bn by the end of the parliament – a much smaller task.

That’s not to say that the cuts to departmental spending and welfare will be painless – far from it. Employment Support Allowance – what used to be called incapacity benefit and severe disablement benefit – will be cut down to the level of Jobseekers’ Allowance, while the government will erect further hurdles to claimants. Cuts to departmental spending will mean a further reduction in the numbers of public sector workers.  But it will be some way short of the reductions in welfare spending required to hit Osborne’s deficit reduction timetable.

So, where’s the money coming from? The answer is nowhere. What we'll instead get is five more years of the same: increasing household debt, austerity largely concentrated on the poorest, and yet more borrowing. As the last five years proved, the Conservatives don’t need to close the deficit to be re-elected. In fact, it may be that having the need to “finish the job” as a stick to beat Labour with actually helped the Tories in May. They have neither an economic imperative nor a political one to close the deficit. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.