PMQs review: a win for Cameron as he ridicules "predistribution"

The Labour leader's big idea is dangerously vulnerable to mockery.

David Cameron, a man not known for his attention to detail, armed himself with several powerful statistics at today's PMQs. Private sector employment, he boasted, had risen by a million since the election, while the deficit had fallen by a quarter. In response, Ed Miliband pointed out that borrowing is already 25 per cent (£9.3bn) higher than at this point last year, with George Osborne set to abandon his golden debt rule.

Cameron, naturally, replied that, if Miliband was so worried about borrowing, why did he want to increase it? Miliband should have replied that while Labour would borrow for growth, the Tories are borrowing due to recession. But, perhaps fearing that PMQs wouldn't allow for an explanation of Keynes's paradox of thrift, he simply declared that borrowing was "rising on his [Cameron's] watch". It was at this point that Cameron turned his attention to "predistribution", the zeitgeisty concept Miliband discussed in his speech last week. It meant he said, borrowing a quip from Danny Alexander, that "you spend the money before you actually get it, and I think you'll find that's why we're in the mess we're in right now." Seated next to Miliband, Ed Balls, who yesterday described "predistribution" as "a good idea looking for a good label", looked visibly unnerved.

As a result, Miliband's next question - "Is he going to be a beneficiary of the 50p tax cut?" - couldn't help sounding rather desperate. Cameron failed to answer it, just as he failed to say whether the government would rip up its debt target, but his replies were sufficiently strong for this to be of little consequence.

The man who invented predistribution, Joseph Hacker, had, Cameron observed, written a book called The Road To Nowhere. But Miliband "didn't need to read it, he's there already." Rather optimistically, the Labour leader again asked the PM whether he would benefit from the abolition of the 50p rate ("a question he will have to answer between now and April"). But, today at least, buoyed by the cheers of Tory MPs, Cameron could happily ignore him.

Prime Minister David Cameron leaves 10 Downing Street in central London, on September 5, 2012. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.