The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

The Lib Dem leadership contest has begun

Tim Farron joins Vince Cable in declaring that he's prepared to stand for leader.

By George Eaton Published 21 September 2012 14:38

Asked whether he wanted to be leader, Lib Dem president Tim Farron said: "I certainly wouldn't rule it out".

First it was Vince Cable, now Tim Farron has joined the Business Secretary in declaring that he's prepared to stand for the Lib Dem leadership if Nick Clegg is removed. Asked whether he wanted to be leader, the party president told The House magazine: "I certainly wouldn't rule it out" (Cable told the FT: "I don’t exclude it – who knows what might happen in the future"). Farron's answer is significant because when asked this question, a politician traditionally replies: "We've already got a leader and he's doing an excellent job" (or words to that effect). His decision to fuel speculation about his intentions is a sign of just how weak Clegg's position is. As Richard Reeves, the Lib Dem leader's former strategy director, wrote in this week's issue, "For four days and nights the question in the sea air will be: Clegg or no Clegg?"

While it's unlikely that the Lib Dems will seek to force Clegg out in the next year, if the polls continue to show that they'd perform better under Cable, I expect them to remove him before the election. A recent ComRes poll showed that with Cable as leader, support for the Lib Dems would rise to 18%, compared to 14% under Clegg. On a uniform swing, that would leave the party with 39 of its 57 seats, compared with 23 under Clegg. The chance to save 15-20 MPs is likely to prove too good to resist. For the Lib Dems, it represents the difference between a bad result and a terrible one.

Now, in the form of Farron, Cable has an open challenger. The ballots may not have been sent out but, in every other respect, the Lib Dem leadership contest has already begun.

Special Offer: Get 12 issues of New Statesman magazine for just £12

Tags: Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg Vince Cable

More from George Eaton

View the discussion thread.

19 comments

Tue, 2012-10-02 18:55 — NonsIllultNor (not verified)

QmkkKYII [url=http://nikefreeruntilbuddanmark.info]nike free run[/url]
zeypZVXoz http://www.nikefreerunsdenmark.info
hxfxxcdloe [url=http://nikefreeruntilbuddanmark.info/#3080]nike free run[/url]
ODFmObiov hoqkhi [url=http://www.nikefreerunsdenmark.info]nike free[/url]
YcxJYPVLkkr

Tue, 2012-10-02 18:54 — astewsassup (not verified)

WxdgQPRF [url=http://coachoutletfactoryonlinesale.info]coach factory[/url]
fqwvZFKly http://insanityworkoutcanada.info
uhujyaelfy [url=http://coachoutletfactoryonlinesale.info/#0173]coach outlet[/url]
WRChOuvke ivqqlp [url=http://insanityworkoutcanada.info]insanity workout canada[/url]
YxbWNJGYhvo

Mon, 2012-09-24 09:22 — Indu Pendent

Dont forget it was the voters who elected the 57 LD MPs not the LD party. They like Clegg the person .... the only change is its now Clegg vs Miliband who are similar.

70% of people blame Labour for there being no money -- people think Clegg is a dick for how he has handled tuition fees but dont blame him .

At the next election the LDs can say "look at how things would have been had we not been in the coalition to regulate the Tories/ Labour". Its a very strong vote winning argument. I predict the LDs will hold or increase their seats.

Mon, 2012-09-24 08:29 — New statesman II (not verified)

Tim thinks that prayer can physically heal people. The last thing the LDs need is God and son.

"yes, we screwed up with tuition fees, but now we can offer you Jesus' love and salvation...come back!"

Mon, 2012-09-24 01:27 — Ophidian (not verified)

Its not just Clegg!!!
Most of Lib Dem party apparently was behind all these anti-public policies!?!

Sat, 2012-09-22 15:38 — Barrie J (not verified)

Saw Farron on TV this morning, had no idea who he was although his overbearing enthusiasm for all things Lib Dem soon identified him as an unemployed M.P. walking.
Talked utter tosh, whether it was 'Northern Straight Talking' tosh I couldn't tell.
Sadly for him, ugly too, thinking of putting his photo over mantlepiece to keep children away from fire.

Sat, 2012-09-22 10:10 — anonymous coward (not verified)

Tactically it would be foolish for anyone to replace Clegg before the next election. The liberals will do extremely badly. The best a new leader can achieve is to do less badly than if Clegg was leading. This will be seen as doing badly, the leader as a failure and will be career ending. If a new leader takes over after a catastrpohic election then he has every prospect of improving performance.

The only factor which might change this is a candidate who expects he may loose at the next election (for example Clegg himself looks very unsafe) and therefore has nothing to loose.

Sat, 2012-09-22 09:47 — hugh markey (not verified)

Caesar was well into middle-age when he became leader. Vince could still do it. Mae West certainly appreciated a man who takes his time. Vince has already qualified and has the diploma awarded by 'the Old Geezer' program on his wall.
With all these green shoots around it's time experience had a go.

Strictly Politics

Fri, 2012-09-21 23:19 — november (not verified)

maybe those lib dems insiders know something we don't?
maybe nick "sorry for not having a spine" Clegg is gonna resign this weekend?
maybe the party plans to axe him this weekend.

Sat, 2012-09-22 09:09 — Bolshie Dave (not verified)

Dont get our hopes up :D

Fri, 2012-09-21 22:03 — Bolshie Dave (not verified)

The ONLY hope for the Lib dems is a new leader and then to pull out of the coalition. Try and undo some of the massive damage being done to this country

Fri, 2012-09-21 21:26 — Red99 (not verified)

Go on Farron, go for it. As soon as the public realise what a lying toad you really are your party will be toast.

Fri, 2012-09-21 19:17 — Mr Bingham (not verified)

Once the next general election comes around people will remember that the Liberal Democrats will say anything to get your vote but once in office they will do the opposite.

The scar is really BIG and people will see and remember it !

The Liberal Democrats are toast no matter what they do. Thanks for also going along with the NHS reforms that will leave people in pain and dying in the not to distant future.

Fri, 2012-09-21 17:59 — Herbert (not verified)

It doesn't matter who is the leader. People won't forget the Lib Dems voted for the NHS 'reforms', not just Clegg. This has to be rammed home day after day.

Fri, 2012-09-21 17:16 — Aleph1 (not verified)

To say that a rubber duck would be better than Clegg is an understatement, however Tim Farron is probably the best of the bunch; straight talking northerner is what we need. Although, a politician that talks straight would be a first.

Fri, 2012-09-21 16:06 — upnorthkid (not verified)

Go Lib Dems. I reckon the bounce would be bigger. The question asked is a rational one around who you'd vote for. It doesn't take into account the positive emotional mood you'd create by giving the most despised politician in a generation the ending he deserves.

Oh you should leave the coalition as well. If you really want to see what a bounce looks like.

Fri, 2012-09-21 16:06 — upnorthkid (not verified)

Oh you should leave the coalition as well. If you really want to see what a bounce looks like.

Fri, 2012-09-21 15:22 — anonyyyy (not verified)

Vince and Farron are not that greatly visible to the public. No one in general really knows who they are.

For marketing purposes the lib dems are better off with clegg, having an older dude like cable running up against younger Cameron and Milliband in a tv debate.... well it didn’t work for Brown.

Fri, 2012-09-21 15:09 — Lucidus (not verified)

A change of leadership might work for a bit, but a different face doing the same things isn't going to make a difference.

Anthony Wells wrote,

"ComRes also asked a hypothetical voting intention question on how people would vote if Vince Cable was the Liberal Democrat leader. Like YouGov have done recently they first asked a control question asking how people would vote with the current party leaders, which had vote shares of CON 35%, LAB 39%, LDEM 14%, Other 12% ...

"ComRes then asked how people would vote if the leaders were Cameron, Miliband and Cable, producing results of CON 34%(down 1), Labour 38%(down 1), Lib Dem 18%(up 4) – suggesting the Liberal Democrats would indeed do substantially better with Vince Cable as leader than with Nick Clegg as leader.

"I will add all my usual caveats about hypothetical party leader questions – they are asking people to say how they would vote based on what they imagine the party would do if X was leader, when in reality they don’t know what policies they would pursue, what direction they would take the party and so on."

ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/6107