Unlike the UK, France and Germany aren't in recession
Osborne was wrong to blame the eurozone for our double-dip recession.
By George Eaton Published 14 August 2012 15:02
George Osborne is fond of blaming the eurozone crisis for Britain's economic woes (he recently claimed that the crisis had "killed off" growth in the UK) , so it's worth noting that, unlike the UK, the euro's two largest members - Germany and France - aren't in recession. While the British economy contracted by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter of this year, Eurostat figures out today showed that the French economy remained flat, while Germany grew by 0.3 per cent. In the previous quarter, Britain shrunk by 0.5 per cent, while Germany grew by 0.5 per cent and France stagnated.
Of course, since much of our trade is with the eurozone, its lack of growth (it collectively shrank by 0.2 per cent in Q2), doesn't help. But as even Tory MPs concede, it is some exaggeration to claim it "killed off" our recovery. The Chancellor accomplished that all by himself. It was his absurd claim that the UK was on "the brink of bankruptcy" and his premature austerity measures, most notably the 2.5 point rise in VAT, that destroyed confidence and strangled growth. With the exception of Italy, Britain is the only G20 country to have suffered a double-dip recession.
At this moment, contrary to Osborne, Britain should actually be profiting from the eurozone crisis. With investors ever more reluctant to lend to eurozone countries, the UK can afford to borrow at the lowest interest rates for 300 years. We are, as Osborne has said many times, a "safe haven". Yet the Chancellor appears determined not to take advantage of this fact. He has continually refused to borrow for growth (in the form of tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending), despite little evidence that this would lead to a rise in British gilt yields. It is only Osborne's political pride that is preventing a change of direction. Borrowing for growth would be a tacit admission that his nemesis, Ed Balls, was right and that he was wrong. Until the Chancellor backs down, we will all collectively pay for his stubbornness.
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38 comments
I'm not convinced that borrowing more, whilst we are already deep in debt, makes either economic or political sense.
Me me me, The Tories couldn't even get a majority at the last election so how anyone can believe that they will at the next one is clearly delusional or living in a parallel universe.
Michael Dixon claims few people listen to Labour now.
So that explains why Labour are 10 points ahead in the polls, does it?
"So that explains why Labour are 10 points ahead in the polls". Labour will lose the next general election..
You must be joking.
I'm not.....Labour maybe 10 points ahead in opinion polls but on the economy that's a different story. Who's going to vote for a political party with no workable alternatives a party who's own economic policies along with the greedy bankers are directly responsible for our present financial difficulties. Who's going to vote for a chancellor who's own finical message remains the same tax more borrow more squander more. If you’re trying to get your message across it’s not working because Labour are tainted with what went before and if Labour thinks it can bribe the electorate with promises of sweets and cakes tomorrow that will just show a contempt for the voting public.
The economically illiterate George Osborne does not even know what the word Recession means !
Unlike the UK, France and Germany aren't in recession.
repeat
Unlike the UK, France and Germany aren't in recession
Are you watching leftist media - get with it, there's a war on....again
Unlike the UK, France and Germany aren't in recession
Osborne was wrong to blame the eurozone for our double-dip recession he needs to pin the blame firmly were it belongs with the previous economically irresponsible Labour government who share the blame in equal measure with the bankers.
Is that why Osborne keeps giving bankers their bonuses, as a means of punishment?
Don't forget there going to be in line of a tax cut with the new higher tax rate.
Like it or not Mr Fox this coalition government as done more for the low paid than your wonderful Labour party ever did..
I don't understand the Left's borrowing strategy. Could someone explain it to me, please? I'm not a Tory spoiling for an argument. Far from it. I don't support any political party. I'm a floating voter whose vote is up for grabs. I genuinely don't understand the Left's borrowing strategy and would appreciate some enlightenment. It strikes me that, if you're in debt, borrowing more money will get you even more in debt. Is the argument that increasing sovereign debt doesn't matter? If so, could someone explain the economics to me, please?
Ok. There was this economist called John Meynard Keynes. As well as being the father of modern macroeconomic theory, he sorted out the economies of Europe after both world wars. He foretold the problems of the Versailles settlement in the "Economic Consequences of the Peace" (1919) and cos he's been proved right, everyone listened to him from ww2 until the Maggie/Reagan Friedman monetarist Chicago school became ascendant in the 80s. But he's still considered the greatest economist of the C20th, and the greatest British economist ever (if you don't count Adam Smith).
Basically, he said they way you should stop the trade cycle boom and bust is for govts to save in the good times and spend in the bad. Now, all the Tories are saying that it's all Labour's fault for not saving in the good times. (Which does have an element of truth, but the reality is that had they'd been in power, they'd have spunked the cash too, whether on tax cuts for the rich, benefits for the aspiring working classes, or even on schools and hospitals. JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER NATION, - GERMANY, US, EVERYONE , - DID IN THE BOOM YEARS.)
But even given we didn't save enough, JMK will say that you still need increased govt. expenditure during a bust like this one. (You'll just have to make sure you really DO save when we have the next boom). Cutting G (govt. expenditure) during a recession is suicide. As Osborne and Merkel are proving.
You see the thing is that the analogy Dave used in the election campaign - that the country's credit card is maxed out - is complete twaddle. We've run an increasing national debt since the BoE was founded in 1694. A national economy can grow, so as long as it grows at the same rate (or more) than borrowing increases, then it doesn't matter that the debt's gone up.
Hence all the talk here and in the EU for growth, not austerity.
A family can keep spending on its credit card (increased debt) if it keeps getting a pay-raise (growth).
But austerity leads to more unemployment, less tax receipts, higher benefit payments, and becomes a vicious-circle of rising debt. As is happening here (cf double-dip recession and lower GDP than when the Tories came in in 2010) and in the Eurozone periphery.
So JMK would argue that we need to increase G (govt expenditure through borrowing) to kick-start the economy which will then sort itself out as the economy grows and people and companies pay tax on their extra wages and profits and benefit payment costs fall.
The point the article is making is that because interest rates are ridiculously low at the moment, it's even easier for the govt. to borrow the money to spend on growth-projects. (eg paying people to work on infrastructure projects which will benefit the economy in the long run, rather than paying them unemployment benefit.)
I'll try to give you a really bad analogy. Imagine I'll pay you £5 to take this parcel from A to B but will only give you a fiver and your train fare when you return. But you're skint and need to borrow the money for the train ticket. Wonga.com will lend you the money for £10. No use to you. But imagine the bond markets (thinking you're a safe haven unlike those scary Southern Europeans) offer to lend you the train fare for 50p. You're sorted. You can borrow the money and make your £4.50 and pay off your debt.
That's sort of what the article's saying.
a) GO was wrong in the first place to think his ideological beliefs had more understanding of macroeconomics than JMK.
b) And he's especially wrong now as the low bond yields make it even easier.
Hope that helps.
Fordy said: .....I don't understand............I genuinely don't understand ........could someone explain the economics to me, please..........
"Floaters"
Well, Hu Ru. Can you provide me with an understanding, please?
The fact is that everyone thought they could borrow more than they could: governments, businesses and mortgage holders, credit card holders, almost everyone (though I didn't). Over the years this developed into an economy founded on debt. So, any transition would need to be gradual - you can either set out not to go 'too far too fast' or you can try it and find yourself in trouble. NB: blaming the euro is a nonsense argument too, we would have expected a prudent chancellor to allow for unforeseen difficulties, but these weren't unforeseen as the disaster was happening when the Tories came into the coalition. There were plenty of signs that things might not go as well as they might have hoped.
That's my view of it
The first part of your explanation I was aware of. I fail to understand why racking up even more debt will solve the problem. That was my question. Can you enlighten me, please?
Well try this analogy: if someone is over-eating (borrowing too much) he may realize that he is, let's just say, 'a little portly' (deeply in debt). Now, what is the remedy. You could try starvation: no more food at all - perhaps a dry bread-crust some water, maybe some stale cheese. But what we want is someone fighting-fit, not a hermit living in a cave (a recession). So, we allow our patient a decent, though not extravagant, diet (which involves some borrowing) - perhaps the occasional cream bun (an Olympics), so long as he puts in the hours on the treadmill (gets a job). Now, remember there is no job for a hermit in a cave, which is where our starvation tactics put the patient. But, gradually the hours on the treadmill pay off. The patient acquires skills and a lean, motivated individual emerges (someone who earns all he needs and borrows nothing). Now here is the gamble, but please note it is everbody's gamble - the patient becomes inventive and dynamic (establishes a strong position in the world-economy) and finally is able to pay off all the debt and have enough spare to give to others who - through no fault of their own - have been forced into starvation (international aid).
You could argue the 'I'm alright Jack' angle if you happen to be well off, but this isn't about individuals, it's about a nation, and I think all that I have described is going on as we speak, it's just that at present the bread-crusts and water has been the focus, and it isn't working .
That, sir, is my level best.
Your level best was very good, sir. You concede that Balls approach is a gamble, which it is. My main problem with your analogy is that a hermit can be very content with life. I'm not convinced that growth, which is presupposed without question as the first principle of Keynesianism and supply-siders, is the appropriate goal for economics. If you recall Plato's Republic, the governing aristocrats in his ideal society were, in a materialistic sense, poor.
The left's borrowing strategy? Have you got the first idea how much Osborne has borrowed since being Chancellor?.
He promised to eliminate deficits by 2015, guaranteed there would be no double-dip.
You need to examine the " Right's" borrowing strategy before throwing stones at a glass argument.
I am aware that borrowing has gone up under Osborne. I was under the impression that Balls wanted to borrow even more than Osborne. How will this help?
I'm still waiting for an explanation from someone. If you want to win my vote for Labour, you'll have show me how racking up even more debt than we currently have will heal the economy and not make it even worse. I'll tune in tomorrow and hope to have an explanation from someone.
Your question has an implicit assumption which I'll argue is not correct. Osborne uses the analogy of the household with a credit card. Money comes in in the form of wages, and goes out in the form of household spending. A sensible family will match its spending to its income. If the household spends more than they earn, they accumulate debt. Why? Because their income does not change, even if they adjust their expenditure.
However, while this assumption is true for a single individual or household, it is not true for the economy as a whole, because the economy is a giant interconnected system: I spend money in your shop, which pays your wages, which you spend, which pays someone else's wages, and so on... In this sense, you can think of the economy as being like an ecosystem, where if one species is endangered, others will struggle as well.
The government makes up around 40% of the economy, by far the single biggest influence. So for the exchequer, revenue is strongly linked to expenditure, as people only pay taxes on money they earn. Reducing government spending reduces the size of the economy. This reduces the amount of tax people pay, while increasing the amount of unemployment benefit the government has to pay. The converse is also true: if the government increases its spending, it can also increase its revenue.
The capacity for government spending to "crowd in" other economic activity is know as the fiscal multiplier. The point of contention between the coalition and Labour is as to the size of the fiscal multiplier. Osborne views it as being close to zero or even negative (as he argues that cutting the public sector will release resources to a 'more efficient' private sector). Labour considers the multiplier to be positive, potentially greater than 1 if the government can invest in infrastructure which supports the economy in growing.
While this is a contentious issue among economists, it should be borne in mind that while currently in recession, the UK economy has a good deal of spare capacity, very low interest rates, the capacity to borrow money, and low prices in the construction industry, all of which can serve to increase the fiscal multiplier, at least in the short run. Economists Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2010) have estimated that during recessions, the fiscal multiplier may be between 1 and 1.5. So in other words, if chancellor Ed Balls increased public spending, he would receive back more in revenues than he spent. Conversely, as chancellor Osborne cuts spending, he puts his government more into debt. And as a side-effect, jobs are created in one scenario and lost in the other.
I am aware of Keynes notion of the multiplier, having studied economics at university. I think it's worth considering why Keynes went out of fashion, which seems to have been forgotten. His theories were deemed to generate inflation. Callaghan accepted this when he was Prime Minister. I think it is wishful thinking to expect increased borrowing to necessarily cure our economic ills. It is a gamble, much as casino-capitalism was.
You make a good point regarding inflation. If used as a long run option, Labour's borrowing strategy might prove inflationary (although successive governments have run deficits in the vast majority of years in recent decades) . The same argument could be made of quantitative easing, yet in the short run the Bank of England seems to be able to get away with doing this without affecting the inflation rate. Do you consider have any reason for considering that increased government spending would be any more inflationary than QE, particularly if used as a temporary measure?
You might describe it as a gamble, but there is a clear contrast between the performance of the economy during 2009, when VAT was reduced in order to preserve demand in the economy, and after May 2010, when Osborne raised VAT and implemented his spending cuts. I would consider it a bigger gamble to stick with "Plan A", given its lack of success so far.
Hope you read what I've written above.
Some of the replies to you have been twaddle. Debt (public and private) is not some recent thing despite the lefty-casino-capitalism spiel.
As I state, we've been running a National Debt via the Bank of England since 1694. And we'd have no modern economy without Investment and fractional reserve banking. If people didn't lend money we'd still be living in caves (pretty much). For every investor, someone is borrowing the money.
GDP = C+I+G ... Consumption+Investment+Govt expenditure.
Imagine where we'd be if people didn't borrow to invest, consume or pay for the state. That's how borrowing can create, and has for centuries created, growth. Why did we all get richer when banking took off at the end of the middle ages and the Christian anti-usury laws were ignored?
But my reply to your original post puts it more clearly and explains the point this article is making about utilising the advantageously low interest rates available at the moment.
If you are coming tomorrow, I'll bookmark this page and await your response. I'm a sort-of lefty but this is the first time I've come here. You asked an eminently sensible question. I have no idea why no-one else bothered to answer it.
If you do have any follow up questions I'll try to answer them, and if you want referenced sources I'll try to provide them.
My economics degree was 20 years ago, and although I spent most of my time off my head, this is all first-year A-level stuff. And this is the main criticism of current policies. The EU's different - no fiscal union, and it's easy for a German tabloid press to whip up a frenzy about giving their hard earned cash to feckless Greeks. (Who have been, and still are, unfortunately, being feckless.)
It's actually a lot more complex than that, but my point is that in the UK it's not.
Osborne's motivated by ideology, just like Reagan believed Friedman's trickle down economics. The difference is that Thatcher's switch to Monetarism (Friedman) was covered by N. Sea oil and the City's big-bang. (Which she instigated so she can take some credit for that, though it pains me to say it. But the true-lefties will counter that that was the start of the City's casino capitalism which caused the current mess in the first place. The centrist-Tories would respond that Labour lite-touch regulation exacerbated the problems during the Blair years.)
Osborne hoped to be proved right. He hoped that he could cut the public sector and that somehow the private sector would pick up the slack. (now maybe if the US and EU were booming, not in the same shit we're in, then it might have worked through the £ devaluing against the dollar and euro. But with the whole Western world in recession and our main export market's currency going through the floor, I'm afraid it's failed. That's why the Tories are still blaming the Eurozone. Because in their dreams, if the EZ was sorted, a cheaper £ would lead to us flogging loads of exports to the EU. But that hasn't happened, as you know.)
Had Osborne's plan worked, then we'd be starting to see a recovery by now, we'd be in full swing by 2014 (hence the desire for a full 5yr parliament) and then he could have a give-away election budget in 2014/5. He'd win that and then say "Look, smaller govt's better. My ideology has been proved right. We will shrink the state and all become richer. Neo-Thatcherism rocks."
But it ain't working like that.
Yet he won't admit he's wrong because we all know that political u-turns (especially over your main belief) are suicide. So it's better for him to keep buggering the economy, blame it on Europe, the weather, the jubilee, the Olympics etc, and hope something turns up. Which it won't.
But as I say, not only should he admit Plan A's wrong, the really sick thing is that given the interest rates at the moment, Plan B's even more attractive than ever. But GO won't admit that cos he'd have to resign, in effect. Admission of failure would hole him below the water-line. Had DC made domestic or foreign issues a priority, he MIGHT be able to sack GO and get away with it. But he's put everything on the economy. And he can't admit his govt's totally cocked up the economy since they came to power.
PS Even worse if that they're continuing the PFI timebomb which means we pay an effective interest rate of 100's of % on our capital projects, just to keep them off the balance sheet so he can say he's not borrowing more.
Labour started this. Probably the worst (non-war) thing they did.
The Tories vowed to stop it, but they're continuing it just to cook the books a bit.
Govt: We need to build a hospital for £100m, but we haven't got the cash and promised not to borrow any more money.
PFI man: I'll build it but you can pay me £500m but spread over the next 20yrs
G: That's more expensive, isn't it?
PFI man: Yes, it makes me very rich. But you can just pay me out of the department's annual budget each year, you don't have to officially borrow the money from the bond markets.
G: So even though it costs the tax payer 6-14x as much in the long run, we can claim with hand on heart not to have increased the national debt?
PFI: Yes. Exactlty.
G: Brilliant idea. I mean, it's not like there's a recession on and we need to be prudent or anything.
And, finally to return to the article, this makes EVEN LESS SENSE WHEN THE INTEREST RATES ARE THE LOWEST IN AGES.
Cheers, Rory. That's the best response so far. I was aware of some of your points, having studied Economics at university. For example, I am aware of the Keynesian macroeconomic formula that GDP=C+I+G+ (X-M). I guess I was guilty of using Socratic irony to try to get a response, but it failed. As far as I know, the Callaghan government wanted to move to a more supply-side approach to economics before Thatcher was elected. The economic consensus then was that demand management was inflationary. The current approach by Osborne is to reboot the economy by trying to enhance the private sector. That much is clear and it is also clear that it isn't working. The alternative approach offered by Balls is even more borrowing than Osborne is currently borrowing. It is to adopt a demand management approach. My bone of contention is that I'm not convinced that it will work either. I think it will be as much of a disaster as Osborne's approach. My intial question was intendeed to elicit a response so someone would explain to me how they though it would work. Could it not be that a completely fresh approach to economics is needed, transcending Keynesianism and supply-side measures? Admittedly, this would need thinking outside the box, but I don't think it's impossible for a visionary.
Sorry, mate. Wasn't meant to be patronising. I know nothing about science and had to have the difference between an electron and photon explained to me of some Higgs blog. The Callaghan govt was worried about inflation but not really trying to replace Keynesian demand management with monetarism - it was more about wage restraint. Remember, we'd had two big shocks that had vastly increased inflation - the Oil crisis where prices went up 4-5x, and joining the EU which imported loads of inflation with VAT. The point is that Brown did one good thing in his entire life - got the western world to follow his Keynesian fiscal stimulus when the crash hit. Between 2008 and 2010, US and UK recovery followed identical paths. As soon as GO got into No.11, our paths diverged, first into double-dip, and now to the point where GDP is lower than he started with. Blaming the Eurozone for not buying more UK private sector goods is pathetic now. He's got to live in the real world, not some fantasy that will make his ideologically-driven policies work.
The fact is that the Brown plan is working in the US. (Yes, you could argue, as the Tea Party and far-right Republicans do, that this will make things worse in the long run, but it's working now as Keynes and Brown predicted.) GO's plan has failed. Were it not for the pathetic nature of party politics, we'd try a plan B just like any CEO would, but a u-turn is suicide. (Maybe a national govt will be the only solution as in 1931). But we need to try something else.
If Plan B fails we could just stop paying BoE QE debt interest - the bond markets won't care, it makes their private sector holdings even more secure, but would allow the opposition to chant Zimbabwe.
I like your faith, but I don't think the UK could try something radical on its own, and nothing's really been suggested. In future, yes, we need something new, but let's get out of this mess first.
We've tried GO's austerity for 2 years and it's failed. So let's try Keynesian fiscal stimulus. Why not build the airport that's vital for our trade in the longer-term, or more social housing, reducing the housing benefit bill. It's better than paying giros.
It may not work, but with money so cheap, we're in the best position to try.
The other point is that if GO's austerity had caused GDP to fall for 2 years, then we'd have higher receipts to pay off the (especially low) interest on the money that we've borrowed.
That's the point. He claimed we needed austerity to reduce the debt. But it's raised it. There is no evidence to make it appear that things will get better. So we either keep getting worse, ad infinitum, or try something else, paid for with the cheap money.
In all honesty, it can't make things much worse.
That's my view. I don't like Balls, but GO's a proven failure. As long as the borrowed money is spent sensibly on private-sector companies, not in pay rises for the public sector unions, give it a go.
But we won't because of party politics, the short-termism of voters and the fact that a politician will sell his country's future to cling onto power.
Maybe we should follow Italy and sack the lot of them for a technocratic govt.
But austerity's failed and failing further. We can't say better the devil you know, we need to try a plan B, and at the moment, that can only be Keynesian fiscal stimulus.
It would be difficult, possibly suicidal, for the UK to try something radical on its own. In terms of the nations of the world "we're all in this together". All national economies are interconnected. They are lined up like a row of dominoes. However, that gives me hope. Strong leadership from a powerful nation could enable the dominoes to fall in a favourable way. You see, I'm not convinced that growth is the ideal goal for the world economy. When you study economics at university, the first principles are not questioned. There is no philosophy of economics. It is assumed without question, by both Keynesians and supply-siders, that growth is the appropriate goal. I think life could be supported better, the support of life being the point of economics for me, by us moving in the opposite direction. Bear in mind that some of the wisest men in history praised the virtues of poverty. Plato's governing aristocrats were materially poor, for example. Growth is ultimately a struggle for power, money being purchasing power. I'm not convinced that the pursuit of economic growth is wise, when one looks at the bigger picture. Admittedly, such a view is radical and possibly impractical. However, I have no problem holding unpopular views.
I don't actually dispute what you say - in fact some would argue that the life style I led in the two decades after uni were intended as a small step in that direction. But I don't think there's a hope in hell of any western democracy voting for what they'll see is a downward spiral. They want their trainers/ipads/property-ladder place.
And if you think the Chinese state will survive without continual growth, or that Indians will vote to remain poor when they believe that global economic domination is within their grasp*, then you're even more mistaken.
But I think you know this, and seem to be engaging more in a philosophical hypothesis than an actual solution to the present. Unless you're secretly implying that if we leave GO at it, he'll bugger the economy up so badly people will move back to the land. Now you come to mention it........
But assuming that we agree that increasing the overall happiness of this country's citizens is 'a good thing' and that people will be happier with trainers, ipads and houses than they will with sandals, bongos and a yurt, then we do, unfortunately, need growth and GO ain't delivering.
While I've accepted a lot of the points you've made, are you really saying:
a) Anything suggested by Ed Balls is bound to be so effing useless that it's not even worth trying, no matter how bad GO makes things?
or
b) Let's let GO bugger it up completely so that people realise that there's more to life than trainers, ipads and house prices?
As I say, I can sort of see where you're coming from with points. I just think that our unwritten constitution does contain a clause that the Chancellor should not knowingly bugger the economy up on ideological principle. Did Bagehot not say something about this?
* I know - the ToI readers are overly optimistic in thinking that an IT sector still much smaller than the UK's and the BCCI/IPL are improvement of having an industrial base that actually makes things, but we seem to think the same about the financial services sector and 29 gold medals.
Osborne was right to blame Labour, Brown and Balls. They were useless which is why few people listen to them now.
Elections won by Labour with a majority since 1997 = 3
Elections won by the Tories with a majority since 1997 = 0
Who is the most useless?
Both?
Or the blimp 'Boris - he's always up in the air!
Always RIGHT
Gideon is a past master at blaming anybody but himself for sluggish economy:
So far, we've had:
* Labour government
* Ed Balls
* Gordon Brown
* Liberal Democrats
* Various countries in the Eurozone
* Angela Merkel
* Silvio Berlusconi
* Weather being too cold
* Weather being too hot
* Brussels bureaucrats
* Employment tribunals
* Civil servants
* People concerned about global warming
* Bank holidays
* Marriage of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge
* Royal Jubilee
* the world in general
So far he hasn't quite matched Edward Heath, who blamed the anchovies off the coast of Peru for his economic woes, but it's only a matter of time before he does so.
How long before he blames the Olympics?!
When are this quarter's results published?
Of course, he'll also have to explain how relaxing Sunday shopping hours didn't magically boost the economy.
Simple to explain. More shopping hours means more jobs, but not much growth.
Labour will lose the elections anyway. They are playing the none-of-the-above party to give problems to the Libdems, but there will be a time when they must say what they want. Then they will have losses in the opinion polls. The problem is, that the human being is always part of a herd, so losses in opinion polls will create more losses. So Labour has lost already.