The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Does Labour now fear Boris more than Cameron?

The Mayor of London is increasingly viewed as a threat by Labour.

By Rafael Behr Published 09 August 2012 10:34

Mayor of London Boris Johnson. Photograph: Getty Images.

The Mayor of London is increasingly viewed as a threat by Labour. Photograph: Getty Images.

"I think the biggest threat to our chances now is …" I eagerly awaited the conclusion to this sentence uttered in a conversation earlier this week with a senior figure in the Labour Party. This is someone who, not surprisingly given the coalition’s travails, is very upbeat about Ed Miliband’s chances of becoming Prime Minister. (He referred to "when" rather than "if" it happens, which is a new development in the tone around the shadow cabinet.)

So what would that threat be? Ongoing doubts about the party’s fiscal credibility? Lack of a clear narrative on what to do with public services? A divisive row with the Unions over how reconciled the party should be with the cuts it will inherit?

"… Boris," he said. This surprised me. I’m a bit of a Boris-sceptic, thinking much of the cheerleading on his behlaf is an expression of Tory frustration with Cameron, rather than a serious movement to get the London Mayor promoted to the job of Prime Minister any time soon. But the case was persuasively made. Everything that is now being said about his unsuitability for the top job and the unlikelihood of it actually happening was once said about his chances of being London mayor. He is, I was told, a real star who has managed his career well and, crucially, who animates people who don't usually care about politics. That is the Holy Grail in Westminster these days. The fact that he isn’t in parliament now and has another job? A minor hurdle, apparently. Once Tory MPs are convinced enough that Cameron is leading them to defeat their famously regicidal tempers will be fired and a way will be found.

I’m still not entirely persuaded but it is certainly revealing that Labour people are taking the prospect very seriously indeed. (My colleague George points out that Jacqui Smith, former Labour Home Secretary, has intervened in a fairly vigorous attempt to debunk the myth of Boris bonhomie.) It wasn’t that long ago that Labour people were actually rather enjoying Johnson’s not so secret campaign to undermine Cameron and Osborne. They may have hated the way he kept Labour out of City Hall but the prevailing feeling was that his function on the national stage was as a convenient thorn in the PM’s side - an enemy’s enemy and therefore kind of a friend. No longer.

I was reminded also of a conversation I had a while ago with one of Ed Miliband’s advisers about the issue of charisma and personal ratings, where Cameron still beats the Labour leader in opinion polls. Wouldn’t a presidential-style contest between the two men be a problem for Ed? The answer: that is the received wisdom, yes. But consider how much of a hit Cameron’s personal brand has already taken, how limited his power is in coalition, how much some his own MPs dislike him, how jaded his act will seem by 2015. Is it so hard to think that, by the next election, a presidential face-off would be something Miliband might even relish? I was deeply sceptical of that proposition at the time and most people I have shared it with (including pollsters) have looked puzzled or snorted in disbelief.

But to hear Tories talk about their own leader is a masterclass in disillusionment and pessimism. Sometimes they seem to do a better job of talking up Miliband’s chances than their Labour counterparts. Partly that is because Labour MPs are desperate not to sound complacent and because they have more of an insight into how brittle and unready the party machine is when it comes to the prospect of fighting an election. The Tories know their own weaknesses on that front too, of course.

The Labour high command certainly isn’t writing Cameron off. Far from it. The feeling I get from talking to Miliband’s closest aides is that they know Cameron still outpolls his party and remains a formidable politician - "clearly he is still their strongest asset" – says one. The Tories, goes this view, would be crazy to change leader before the election. That remains a very remote possibility in any case. But something has definitely changed in the way Labour views their main opponent. There is now someone in the wings they would want to take on even less.

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Tags: Boris Johnson David Cameron Conservatives

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18 comments

Sat, 2012-08-11 17:22 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

Methinks that probably took you as long to think up as "Liebore", your greatest acheivement so far Robert Taggart. WOW

Tue, 2012-08-14 12:42 — Robert Taggart

Our greatest achievement ?... be this ongoing experiment !...
You may have heard the one about frogs and boiling water ?
Question. If you take an Eel to the 'Stu' pot, do you drop it in before or after you boil the dish ?
Result. Either way temp's' rise !

Fri, 2012-08-10 11:56 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

Robert Taggart get a life you halfwit.

Fri, 2012-08-10 17:41 — Robert Taggart

The 'Stued' Eel - coming to the boil - nicely !

Fri, 2012-08-10 10:14 — Drew Edward (not verified)

On the one hand, the thought of Boris as UK PM and possibly Mitt Romney in the White House is one of the most terrifying prospects for world stability since Bush & Blair.

But as someone who's pro Scottish independence, Boris as UK PM would be one of the biggest gifts to the Yes campaign it could ever have. London is practically an independent tax haven separate from the rest of the UK as it is but with BoJo at the helm all right wing hell would break loose. Plus, he the would go so far off script from the Better Together campaign's carefully media managed script that the chances of them keeping themselves together until 2014 would be drastically reduced, let alone the Union itself.

Thu, 2012-08-09 16:24 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

This is the bloke that Ian Hislop and Paul Merton used to tear to pieces and suddenly everybody is treating him like an Towering Statesman with exceptional intellect- don't panic Mr mainwaring!!!!

Robert Taggart go away you halfwit.

Thu, 2012-08-09 17:34 — Robert Taggart

I be back - 'Stued' Eels anyone ?!

Thu, 2012-08-09 13:35 — Keir

Personality does not count. Policies count; for selfish reasons, Tories cut where it will cost GB later. Boris can't alter that; Osborne's policy is failing, and he has proposed no alternative economic model. All he does is prat around (which is probably his true level). It does not matter who leads the Tories, if a majority of the electorate cannot see that Toryism will take GB down the pan, they will deserve to go down it.

Thu, 2012-08-09 13:33 — therealguyfaux (not verified)

May 2015 is a long way off. In the meantime shit can happen; doesn't it always?
For that matter, November 2012 is still a long way off and they're still trying to dope out what will happen between Obama and Romney on the other side of the Drink. And what happens in the US as a whole, unlike Las Vegas, doesn't stay there, and the same can be said about Brussels, which is of even more immediate concern. So many variables-- that's why my father never was a horse-race punter; he told me "A horse has four legs and two eyes, a jockey has two hands and two eyes, and something can go very wrong with any one of those things." Politics works the same way, and Professor Sod-Murphy will be heard from, of this you can be sure. You're only as strong as the NEXT polling data will say you are, not what the last showed.

Thu, 2012-08-09 12:32 — Lardybloke (not verified)

"The Labour high command certainly isn’t writing Cameron off. Far from it. The feeling I get from talking to Miliband’s closest aides is that they know Cameron still outpolls his party and remains a formidable politician - "clearly he is still their strongest asset" – says one. The Tories, goes this view, would be crazy to change leader before the election. That remains a very remote possibility in any case...."

Don't you believe it! This is a very real possibility and gets closer to evens every day. Remember that this is the party that elected Iain Duncan Smith as its leader. They seem to have an absolute conviction that the UK has a duty to return a hard right Thatcherite government and get ever more angry when such a thing doesn't happen. They are furious that Cameron asn't right wing enough or Eurosceptic enough.

The trouble is that Boris is a very clever fellow, regardless of his comic talent. If they replace Cameron with Boris and somehow win the next general election then Boris will not change the ideology at the top of the Tory Party very much from that of Cameron anyway. He certainly won't try to get us out of the EU! Then the Tory grassroots will get even more apoplexic with rage and try to replace him with Peter Bone, Philip Holobone or somesuch.

Realistically, I believe the Labour Party shot itself in the foot by electing the wrong Milliband as its Leader. I would be much more comfortable if David Milliband or Yvette Cooper were its Leader, but I very strongly beleive that Ed Milliband is going to get a thumping majority at the next general election. This is because the Tory Party is only intent on tearing itself apart and will lose many seats on a split vote with UKIP while Labour, bolstered by most ex-Lib Dems hoover up the wreckage.

Thu, 2012-08-09 12:32 — Lardybloke (not verified)

Thu, 2012-08-09 12:21 — sandy winder (not verified)

Replacing one upper class twit with another upper class twit? Brilliant! How could that not work?

Thu, 2012-08-09 12:11 — Ellis000 (not verified)

Be afraid, be very afraid. You may scoff all you like but Boris is one of those very rare politicians, like Maggie and Enoch, that can appeal across party lines. He may have only narrowly beaten Ken but any other Tory would have lost by a large margin. If he takes over the Conservative party leadership before 2015 he will be the next PM; if after 2015, Labour will be the largest party with the LDs as partners and their coalition will fall within 2 years and Boris will be the next Conservative majority PM.

Thu, 2012-08-09 12:07 — Mark, Labour Party Member (not verified)

Could it be that the talking-up in Labour circles of Bozo The Clown and his electoral prospects is simply because we are saddled with the fact that we elected the Wrong Brother, and this talk is foreshadowing the frankly awful prospect of the blond buffoon somehow squeaking to victory, at which stage we could cope with the murky and dishonourable task of dispensing with Ed.

I don't know a single friend who doesn't think that if The Other Brother were leader we'd be creaming the Tories and Blousy Boris would not even be a factor. As it is, we are making the best of a bad job. I like Ed, don't get me wrong, and he talks a lot of sense, but he is not going to convince the waverers, and the sooner we get our thick heads around that as a party, the better. Right now, it feels like we are rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.

Thu, 2012-08-09 11:17 — Robert Taggart

Methinks Liebore secretly fears Milibund - Red 'stupid-boy' Ed.
He simply does not have the credibility to lead Blighty - let alone Liebore - and they know it !

Thu, 2012-08-09 11:17 — Herbert (not verified)

Just remember how Ken Livingstone went from being the cheeky rebel who was more popular than his party to... well, what is Livingstone now?

Thu, 2012-08-09 11:16 — mike cobley (not verified)

Bojo the Menace? That upper-class, tousle-haired buffoon? He would be an electoral gift!

Thu, 2012-08-09 10:57 — Des Demona (not verified)

In the light of continuing horrendous economic data it does seem that Cameron will be ditched. - Apoart from Cameron, Osborne Gove and maybe May - all of whom are tainted with toxic policies, most of the British public would be hard pressed to identify a Tory cabinet minister in a lineup of one. Unfortunately the highly media savvy and ultra ambitious Boris will be seen as the only potential leader the Tories have a chance of hoodwinking the country with at the next election. God help us