The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Cameron’s summer blues

The PM's political woes have deepened in the last two weeks.

By George Eaton Published 15 August 2012 13:01

Prime Minister David Cameron. Photograph: Getty Images.

David Cameron has seen the chances of a Conservative majority in 2015 dramatically reduced by the loss of the boundary changes. Photograph: Getty Images.

Unlike some in his party, David Cameron never expected the Tories to receive an Olympic poll bounce. “People are too sensible to confuse a sporting event with their day-to-day lives,” he shrewdly observed before the Games began. But as he left for his holiday in the Mediterranean, the Prime Minister still had cause to reflect that his woes had increased over the preceding two weeks.

During the Olympics fortnight, he endured the loss of his proposed constituency boundary changes – a significant blow to the Tories’ chances of winning a majority in 2015 – saw Boris Johnson celebrated, and suffered the resignation of Louise Mensch, putting Labour within touching distance of its first by-election gain of this parliament. While Boris was cheered by crowds at Hyde Park, Cameron was booed when he watched the boxer Nicola Adams fight at the ExCeL Centre in east London.

Even before Nick Clegg’s veto of the boundary changes, a Tory majority was looking unlikely. No sitting prime minister has increased his party’s share of the vote since 1974 and Cameron is failing to make progress among those groups – black and ethnic minority voters, public-sector workers, Scottish voters – that refused to support him in 2010.

Economic revival remains the precondition for the Prime Minister’s political revival, yet it is increasingly uncertain. Britain is suffering from a crisis of demand, but the Tories’ self-imposed fiscal straitjacket has left them fixated with supply-side reform. There is talk again of making it easier for firms to hire and fire workers, of building new runways at Stansted Airport and of permanently relaxing the Sunday trading laws. Yet the presence of the Liberal Democrats makes it impossible for most or all of these proposals to become government policy.

Unable to deliver the supplyside revolution demanded by Conservative MPs and unwilling to pursue the Keynesian expansionism favoured by Labour, Cameron and George Osborne have nothing resembling a strategy for growth.

Soft leads

For now, the Tories console themselves that Cameron retains a personal 8-point lead over Ed Miliband as “the best prime minister”. In Labour circles, the party’s poll lead is regarded as “soft” and vulnerable to what the welfare minister Chris Grayling calls “EU veto moments”. As a Labour frontbencher told me: “The polls say we’re 10 points ahead but our real lead is 6 at best.”

The Tories are quietly hopeful that they will be the beneficiaries if the next election is fought over austerity. They will attempt to portray Miliband as the defender of a bloated welfare system and an overmighty public sector. The Chancellor’s promise of another £10bn of welfare cuts is a preview of this strategy. Labour is uncertain how to respond.

One Tory told me that private polling showed voters were more inclined to support Osborne’s austerity measures when informed that the coalition had reduced the deficit by a quarter since coming to power. “Let us finish the job” will be the Tories’ message at the next election.

The promise of another five years of austerity is far removed from Cameron’s original talk of “sunlit uplands”. But, for the PM, in danger of being remembered as one of the least electorally successful Conservative prime ministers in modern history, it is the only option left.

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Tags: David Cameron Conservatives Coalition

More from George Eaton

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20 comments

Fri, 2012-08-24 08:31 — hugh markey (not verified)

The anti-Labour voter is hedging 'their' bets. Just as the US voter, [before the Mason-Dixie Line went all hazy and the Southern Democrat became a Reb Republican,] used to vote for the President and against his party in Congress.
It's a kind of political spot betting imported from God's Country. In the past the Tory voter could grudgingly vote Liberal(LibDem) or not bother expressing 'their' mandate.
Was Winston Churchill more popular than Clement Attlee in the 1945 general election?
Or was Lord Home favoured more than Opposition Leader Harold Wilson in the 1964 general election?
Mac's bizarre choice of Home, amusingly compared to Caligula's horse, suggested a massive electoral defeat for the Tory Party. Home had nothing going for him. Born in Mayfair, the son of a Scottish aristo, an appeaser, an Old Etonian and an under-achiever at Oxford and having contemptuously discarded his title to become eligible for the House of Commoners, how could Wilson lose? Almost lose, he did.
The English voter, admittedly some Welsh and some Scots, are dyed-in-the-wool Tories.
Our reading of things political is that if the Tories were being led by a donkey and Labour by God Almighty the English voter might just vote for the Labour Party - but only if the Fires of Hell were being stoked up by the Tories and they, the voters, were feeling the heat.
The Devil You Know.........

Thu, 2012-08-23 00:39 — nicol (not verified)

David Cameron looks very handsome in that photo. He is a good man and I wish you would all stop knocking him. Do you think you could do better?
I'm glad comments aren't vetted as mine would get red arrows, or not get printed.

Fri, 2012-08-17 17:46 — Olu Ojedokun (not verified)

"Let us finish job" The Tories will surely be finished if they use that phrase, Labour will parody it to "Let us finish the economy off". These lot are not in it for the good of the country, they have never been, they are in it for the day to day tactical advantage.

Fri, 2012-08-17 15:45 — Ann23 (not verified)

Gideon is a historian. Mummy and daddy placed him where he is along with a few voters.
He has not have a clue what he s doing.

Fri, 2012-08-17 14:40 — Indu Pendent

George

When you say "austerity" which country are you on about? The coalition has not implemented austerity measures in the UK. Most savings made have been by slowing the recruitment into the public sector - there have been only a tiny proportion of involuntarily leavers. cf Greece where they have been forced to made deep cuts because their government borrowed so much in the past.

Labour borrowed and spent £600bn and was committed to borrow a further £250bn on top of whatever the coaltion did. Do you remember the massive U turn by Miliband and Balls in Labours economic policy when they adopted the coalitions Plan A?

The party should accept that tight fiscal policy is here to stay. The US are starting to tighten their policy because massive borrowing has not worked for their economy. The US economy is set to crash in 2013 Q1.

Fri, 2012-08-17 17:55 — Olu Ojedokun (not verified)

Even if we accept what you state on face value, the Tory and Lib Dem appendages aided and abetted by the Governr of the Bank of England scared off away people from spending and investing by their comical and apocalyptic reference to the UK economy has being on the brink of bankruptcy and rescuing by their senseless emergency budget. That sucked the demand out of the economy and leading into this spiral Gideon Osborne did not need to nail himself so closely to that policy but he did, because he was concerned with tactics! A wise chancellor would have provided wriggle room to adapt in the face of failure… It is a sorry state that more that two years after these lot have been in government their only justifiable excuse for the mess is the previous government. We will see whether this is a credible re-election strategy…..

Fri, 2012-08-17 11:24 — Hu Ru (not verified)

All the statements above, that wish for a Labour return are predicated on the notion that the British Electorate are unbiased, thoughtful, reflective, and economically literate. Sorry to pop those balloons, but this Island is now ungovernable. There is is no 'society', there is no 'us' - there is only me.
Empathy is an historic notion long since dead - buried in the coffins topped by the new front doors that differentiated the 'bought' house from the 'council' one next door.
I've been astonished at the number of 'cherished' cornerstones that have been broken up for hardcore these last 3 and a bit decades, because the left (and we all know who we are) has failed to counter the idealogical puss that seeps through every pore of the laissez-faire body politic.
The Tories can and could get back simply by cutting taxes by 2p, putting the unemployed in stocks.and kicking the cripples. Don't underestimate the population's cruelty - Labour will need to find some way of pandering to it.
Gideon is right - you can never be too tough on welfare.
Or is all this a bit too blunt for the chattering classes?

Fri, 2012-08-17 05:56 — Muhammad Haque (not verified)

Quote your subheading:

“Don't forget those who warned of a double-dip as early as 2009.”

Is that therefore a record/proof/evidence of some sort of exclusive brilliance?

If you were interested in telling the truth then you would know and state that ALL the “UK GDP” stuff is based on an elaborate, historic mythology built on centuries of lies.
The “UK Economy” is built on lies and the lying gets worse with the passage of each day.
The only “clever” thing is to keep the programmed masses at bay. So long as they are a few steps behind, the “governors” can feign being in charge!
The “challenge” is to KEEP the lag between the masses and the “masters” [!] sufficiently long so that the charge on the programmed “governed” lasts long enough.
The deceivers who “govern” are getting ever so nervous as they know that the “magic” to enthral the masses with imperial fakery is wearing very very thin.
It is only a matter of time before the oil and other natural resources-owning peoples are installed as the material deities that they have deserved to be but have been denied the recognition as part of the elaborate game of “civilisation” - theft!
It is mega, deeply depressing, millennial dip.
0455 GMT
Friday
17 August 2012

Thu, 2012-08-16 21:24 — davyh (not verified)

All Labour have to do is remind the electorate Camerons pre election lies.

1) No top down restructuring of the NHS
2) No VAT increase
3) 3000 more police
4) More midwives
5) No changes to child tax credit
6) No changes to disability benefit
7) Open and honest government
8) No more punch and Judy politics
9) No changes to EMA
10) No banker’s bonuses above 2000 pounds
11) No cuts to frontline services
12) No cuts to MOD
13) Protect surestart
14) Empty bins weekly
15) No UK involvement in foreign countries affairs
16) I'll give you all a referendum on the EU
17) No more borrowing
18) Jail time for knife crimes
19) Greenest government ever
20)I dont dye my hair
21) I don't use fake tan
22) expenses scandal sorted out
23) We will cut immigration.
24) Fair fuel stabiliser.

Fri, 2012-08-17 06:55 — Hatetorycantstandbrown (not verified)

All the torys have to do is remind people what a bunch of cunts Labour are. Which wont be hard at all.

Fri, 2012-08-17 10:40 — Herbert (not verified)

And all we have to do is sit back and jeer at these football team supporters. Don't you realise all the parties are crap? Not just one of them, all of them.

Thu, 2012-08-16 18:37 — hugh markey (not verified)

Irving Berlin was a Neo-Con of the first water but his song, one among many from this ultra-talented tune-smith and lyricist, would be ever so appropriate in these circumstances. "Shakin' the Blues Away!'
On 'You Tube' Ann Miller and Doris Day give it an airing.
And how about Cameron and Osborne as the 'Blues Brothers'? Can't sing a note but oh what 'chutzpah'!

Talent Scout

Thu, 2012-08-16 16:52 — Jimminy-Wicket

" No sitting prime minister has increased his party’s share of the vote since 1974"

Cameron simply isn't good enough to increase the Conservative share of the vote. Cameron did not win last time and he enjoyed the advantage of an open goal Gordon Brown as his opponent , said by some to be a very unpopular PM, plus the millions Conservatives threw at it ,and he still could not capitalise on his whip hand.
Cameron has not got a snowball's chance in hell of being the largest party after the next GE, as people are now of the opinion he and George Osborne are incompetent!

Thu, 2012-08-16 14:13 — Michael Dixon (not verified)

Just an aside before the comment, but the picture of Cameron in the title Back to reality has him as a right handed writer. I always thought he was a southpaw. If wrong does it matter if so? Well yes-best to get the cover of a magazine correct or doubts creep in about what is inside.

Cameron goes on holiday in decent shape. Why?

1/. Johnson has now replaced the silent Ed Miliband as someone who will criticise the government and have credibilty. Minus for Labour

2/. Johnson's popularity has meant that the Eton toff nonsense favoured by those on the left is now in tatters. If the crowd cheered Johnson they cheered an Old Etonian and Bullingdon Boy. It was a non-starter anyway but another minus for Labour

3. Johnson will probably irritate Cameron at times but I doubt by too much actually. Duncan Smith was on tv last night and was supportive of Cameron , said he liked Johnson but suggested he does not know the real world of government. Unlike Blair and especially Brown who allowed personal animosity to get in the way of policy, I think Cameron has the personality to be relaxed about the Boris factor. Indeed when Johnson makes some criticisms of government, as he is tied with the Liberals, Cameron may well agree. No points there for Labour.

4/. Unemployment figures were favourable and these were before the Olympics factor.

5/.The Labour Party has lost credibility on welfare policy, immigration, the Hollande love-in will hurt Miliband long-term, housing they are useless with Ministers/Shadow Ministers coming and going regularly, while on the big-one Ed Balls is still around to remind voters of the past. Such a shame for Labour Alan Johnson was not up to the mark.

Labour will win Corby-of course. But they have one long journey to take before George Eaton's final sentence has any chance of coming true.

Thu, 2012-08-16 17:14 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

I really enjoy hearing right wingers try to convince themselves they'll win the next election. It's comforting hearing them being detached from electoral reality.

Fri, 2012-08-17 10:42 — Herbert (not verified)

But right-wigers win either way - Labour or Tory, it's all money in the bank for them with the lightest of light touches.

Thu, 2012-08-16 09:24 — Alistair (not verified)

Sorry, just to add, I guess what I'm saying is that you, and other commentators need to start using total GDP, and not just growth figures.

Thu, 2012-08-16 09:22 — Alistair (not verified)

I know this probably isn't the correct thread for this George, but I can't help think you, and other writers on the left are missing a trick.

UK GDP has fallen over the last 2 years of the coalition government. This means that approaching the next election it is much more likely that growth could be approaching 3-4% per year (to make up the that that has been 'lost') - giving the Tories all the headlines they want - despite the fact that GDP would be lower than if growth continued at 1 - 2% for the 5 year term of parliament.

Or am I missing something?

I can see the Tory narrative now. We sorted the mess, and yes it took some time, but we are on the right track.

Fri, 2012-08-17 15:33 — Anthony J (not verified)

You missed the other Tory Narrative; Labour tooks us to war, Cameron brought the boys home.

Fri, 2012-08-17 00:34 — Graeme Hancocks (not verified)

"Or am I missing something?" Yes, you are. Your massive assumption that GDP will be 3-4% looks rather like wishful thinking. The idea that everything is going to spring back to normal unrealistic. If the Euro crisis continues - as it almost certainly will - the UK and Europe will have to get use to a long, sustained period of sluggish growth. More importantly most people will feel considerably poorer in 2015 than they were in 2010.