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Is benefit-bashing the next Osborne gamble to go wrong?

The Chancellor was ready to be seen as heartless. He didn't count on also looking hopeless.

George Osborne plans to reduce the welfare budget by a further £10bn.
George Osborne plans to reduce the welfare budget by a further £10bn. Photograph: Getty Images.

The row about work capability assessments rumbles on. These are the tests that are meant to establish which recipients of incapacity benefit should be deemed fit and moved to a lower, more conditional rate. The Department for Work and Pensions insists the tests - administered by Atos, a private contractor - are an effective way of distinguishing between those genuinely unable to take on work and those who might simply have given up trying. Critics of the process allege it is a cynical device to shovel disabled and chronically ill people from a benefit that costs the Exchequer lots of money to one that costs less - without due regard for the personal circumstances and medical nuances of individual cases.

The accusation is that the government, confident of political cover in the form of the widespread assumption that many benefit claims are bogus, is saving money by targeting people unable to fight back and who mostly don't vote Tory. The rebuttal is that the DWP is working hard to get everyone into work - which for many people currently receiving incapacity benefit would have a rehabilitative effect, restoring independence and self esteem. As one government advisor put it to me recently: "Which part of your progressive tradition says it is ok to just let people rot on benefits their whole lives?" (Of course, for the DWP "tough love" narrative to have a happy ending, there need to be enough jobs out there ... )

It is worth noting that Atos first got contracts to do these assessments under the last Labour government. The assumption then, as now, was that family GPs were too indulgent in handing out 'sick notes' or felt intimidated if they refused to accept a patient's claim of inability to work. The current government has accelerated the process and ramped up the scale. A predictable consequence is the accusation of brutal targeting - setting semi-official minimum rates for assessors to clear people as fit for work. Atos deny this. The number of decisions successfully contested in court certainly suggests some cavalier assessment is going on. Today's story in the Guardian suggesting the DWP sought to censor information about the appeals process suggests ministers think the courts represent some kind if loophole for scroungers who might slip through the Atos net.

So far this whole story hasn't made a big political impact. That is largely because the received wisdom in Westminster is that public opinion supports the government almost without equivocation when it comes to benefit cuts. That view is backed up by polling, private and public, showing most people would gladly see the axe wielded harder and faster against the welfare budget. Labour, for that very reason, are squeamish about opposing benefit cuts. Their MPs hear enough complaints about 'scroungers' on the doorstep to know how toxic the issue can be. The famous squeezed middle that Ed Miliband would like to represent simmers with as much resentment against neighbours whose rent is paid by the state as against bankers.  

That sentiment is what lies behind the strategic decision by the Chancellor to target the welfare bill in his deficit reduction programme (that and, of course, the sheer size of the DWP spend, but the numbers are often inflated by pension payments.) Osborne's calculation is that you can hardly be too tough on benefits. Squeezing the so-called scroungers creates a nifty dividing line from Labour and keeps the public on side for painful cuts. The last government, the story goes, wasted all of the taxpayers' money handing out dole cheques for people to spend on strong lager and sit around watching Jeremy Kyle. The Tories are clearing up the mess. Etc.

A thought: what if Osborne is wrong about this? Opinion polls and Tory-leaning newspapers still endorse the benefit-bashing approach. But the Conservative approach, if it is not to look plain vindictive, relies on two things. First, the fiscal strategy must actually be seen to be working. Second, there must be jobs for people who are allegedly workshy to be ushered into. Both conditions are looking unmet in the absence of economic growth - and the real effect of departmental budget squeezes has hardly kicked in at all. At the start of this parliament it was reasonable to assume that many voters accepted the need for some harsh treatment at the hands of the coalition in the name of necessary budgetary correction. That support was conditional on the pain being delivered fairly and competently.  If, as one shadow cabinet minister puts it, the Tories look "hopeless as well as heartless" the political dynamic changes dramatically.

I doubt the ambient cultural noise around scrounging and benefit fraud will quieten down very quickly. But a prolonged slump, in which ever more people - and people higher up the income scale - feel insecure is bound to have an impact on perceptions of those who have fallen through the safety net. It is not inconceivable that scorn will turn to pity, especially if there are grounds for doubting the government's basic competence in delivering cuts fairly.  Lib Dem MPs will also come under increasing pressure in the next public spending review to distance themselves from Osborne's aggressive targeting of welfare. The junior coalition party has to present itself as the palliative agent in the mix, softening harsh Tory edges.

Besides, and this is the point where Tories should feel nervous, the whole "can't be too tough on benefits" approach came from the mind of Osborne, whose greatest strategic gamble so far - on the economy - has unravelled. If, as seems now apparent, he is not the Chess Grandmaster of politics as he was once advertised to be, is it not possible that he has called this one wrong too?

21 comments

Old Man's picture

People really need to Google the company ATOS, they carry out work capability assessments for the DWP and therefore the government, I have found stories to shock even the hardest of welfare bashers, there are suicides, people in HOSPITAL, told they have been found fit for work & had their benefits stopped, ATOS don’t take into account any medical evidence when deciding if people are fit for work, the system at the moment is reminiscent of 1930’s Germany. scary.

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Old Man's picture

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cooperator's picture

An alternative is for industrial tribunals to stamp down hard on employers who dismiss employees who are unable to carry out work due to their disability, and also automatically rule that refusing to employ a person because their disability would prevent them from doing the job is discriminatory.

Thirdly - to enforce companies to create jobs for people with disabilities who have been deemed fit for work by ATOS, or a surcharge on corporation tax on profits ringfenced to fund social firms.

Andytron's picture

" But the Conservative approach, if it is not to look plain vindictive, relies on two things. "

We're a vindictive country. We don't care! As far as I'm concerned the electorate hired those jokers for the express purpose of handing out some pain. They're now fulfilling their mandate with alacrity.

Trust me, Murdoch will put BoJo in as Maximum Leader, thus solving the charisma defecit, and they will harp on about the poors and scums while creating ever more people for the Decent Folk to look down upon. Add a few strategic tax cuts at election time and a few free shares, and bingo! They'll walk it.

Even if they don't, it's plain the cuts are popular with the public. Unfortunately they're also extremely ill-advised - best prepare for some serious social problems!

Median23's picture

An idea difficult for anybody to get their head around, because of the many layers of deceit and mend a city mendacity, is that this government is deliberately causing mass unemployment and a 'squeezed middle' in order to implement the shock doctrine and neo-liberal regime that the US elite have been working towards ever since they got rid of Eisenhower ( 'Beware of the military-industrial complex'') and Kennedy. If elitist control of the majority constitutes Fascism, then I guess this government, and arriviste, marketising fellow-travellers such as Niall Ferguson, are guilty.

weneedtobeheard's picture

there attack on the sick and the disabled is a blatant smoke screen to take the heat off the real problem tax evasion, avoidance after all the £££ Trillions stashed away off-shore , there bullying the weakest into absolute poverty this country will never bounce back under this so called leadership with there " Us and Them " mindset

Couldbeyou's picture

What the safe, cozy public forget is, that they are a knives edge from being in the system themselves. One car crash, sudden illness or accident and they are fighting for subsistence living.

I was a successful person with a very good job. I became seriously ill between one second and another. After my six months on sick pay, and a brain surgery paid for by work, they made me speedily redundant so I couldn't claim permanent disability on their insurance and ever since I've been in the system. Thankfully I have a wonderful family. Repeated brain surgeries, implants and no real improvement - I'm suffering extreme pain even on very high doses of opioids. Atos recently assessed me. I got their worse prognosis of " unable to work in the longer term" however, I was put in the Work related group. My MP intervened this time, but not many have such a active MP. I'm frankly terrified every time a brown envelope comes through the door, and it has taken me 6 months to recover from the depression and terror of the process. I have no idea when the next assessment will be, or if they will make the same decision! I know many worse off than me who have been found fit for work, especially if, like me, their disability or illness is invisible or rare, or fluctuating.

I agree that there are no jobs there for people kicked off benefits to work in, but also there are not the employers who want to employ someone who has an illness or disability that will affect their work or attendance. Why should they when they have 35 able bodied people also applying? And the Government gives us no support beyond a bit of placatory nonsense.

And I talk to people and they say "it's so unfair you should be targeted when there are scroungers out there " I say, don't fall for the Daily Mail and Government propaganda, they are throwing the baby out with the bathwater, not just the baby, but all his toys and brothers and sisters!!!

Think about it. REALLY, how close are you to being in the system??

Old Man's picture

COULDBEYOU, this company ATOS , it is becoming more and more publicised as to their ways of treating people, they have had (allegedly) an amount of Doctors & nurses referred to the medical authorities for bad practises, I think it may take some time, but the public are becoming more & more aware of what wrongs are being carried out by this awful company ATOS.

Bolshie Dave's picture

My wife was a european manager for a pharmacuticals company I was a area manager we both drove brand new Mercs had the largest house in the village and were comfertable. In other words we had made it clear blue skys and fair weather to retirement. Then she had an accident I had to quit work to care for her amd so after 10 years we found ourselves on benifits. I resent being called a scrounger or a cheat and the DWPs stance that we are all cheats until proven otherwise. We didnt choose a life on benifits it found us. Having paid in far more than we will ever get out of the system why should we be begrudged every penny and treated like scum?

Jayne Linney's picture

Thanks "couldbeyou" this is "also-me"

Well said xx

MagpiesView's picture

At present people see benefits as money paid out with no return. However when it is their Working Tax Credit, or Pension or Child Benefit that is cut then they will probably see things differently. Particularly when there is no crackdown whatsoever on the wealthiest tax dodgers.

After all there was no support for Benefit's Claimants being bullied into taking 'work placements' at highly profitable companies (who were spared the hardship of paying them a single penny).

Posh Tosh's picture

See even old Boris has his elephant gun aiming for those that are promoting benefit cuts, maybe he is more real than Cameron.

Can we see Mr Cameron do the wire ride that Boris got stuck on - at least he, Boris, showed humour, fair play to the man!

frances smith's picture

osborne has probably made a serious mistake from an economic perspective, as a large proportion of the welfare bill, as transfer payments, are probably what is keeping the uk economy going, and stopping it from turning into a crime ridden hellhole. benefits are an economic multiplier, to withdraw them reduces growth.

there are issues about tax credits, and that they are a way of subsidising low wages, and corporate profits, and housing benefit is a way of subsidising the rentier class, but those are problems that the current conservative party with its thatcherite cult thinking, is unlikely to deal with in a sensible way.

the political issue is an interesting one, as when i used to go out canvassing, though i haven't been in a very long time, i did for many years, but on the doorstep people would talk about things, but it is a very superficial measure of what is important, as they would talk about an issue that they felt confident about addressing, so they weren't going to enter into an argument over the failure of the economy, because most people don't have the expertise to debate it on the doorstep, whereas complaining about someone down the road cheating on benefits is easy, it is an area of competence.

but that is not necessarily a measure of the importance of it, to the voter.

and also the problem for osborne is that he cannot ever envisage a time when he may need to phone jobcentre plus for help, but for many other people that is far more of a reality, so most complaints almost always include a caveat about people who need help getting it.

so you can be too nasty, especially if you are a millionaire tory, as it is not attractive to see someone so rich being so nasty to poor people.

Hu Ru's picture

My guess is that Gideon has called this one right. My observations of this country over the last couple of decades, is that as a nation we are a fag paper away from outright fascism. Cruel, ill-educated, and so class ridden that even the most humble worker feels good sneering at unfortunates who have less.

Used to be a lefty liberal.......feel now it will take proper dose of outright anarchy to ever have a chance of this nation re-discovering its heart and civil concious.

Cel's picture

I agree. The majority of the electorate in this country would frankly support death camps, and it's only a foolish, cosseted metropolitan elite who don't realise this.

kenelmist's picture

You should get out more. People really are not as nasty as you think.

Andytron's picture

Really? Have you ever heard of a place called Yugoslavia? Used to be a nice, bucolic little socialist tourist backwater. Titov held the place together 'till the 80s, and then when democracy came in a nasty little man by the name of Slobodan whipped the equivelant of the English into a frenzy of paranoid nationalistic fervour.

When people talk about the death camps, ask them which ones - the ones in the 1940s, or the ones in the '90s?

kenelmist's picture

No, goodness and a sense of fairness exists eveywhere and will always exist. Even in Toryland.

leonc's picture

This is just one of many similar messages I get on Facebook:

"feeling a little sad tonight. After discovering that doing housekeeping was really good therapy for my stroke, they fired me today. It seems that i'm "a little" slower than the other girls, so they just can't afford to keep me. To them, I was not good enough, but to me, I did things i never thought possible. their loss I guess"

You see what many ill and disabled people see and are subjected too employers and the Govt do not see or care and this will get much worse and I fear for every single remploy worker as they will be thrust into an environment that has no understanding or compassion.

PLS RT this as capitalism has gone too far and money should never rise above humanity.

Red Rain's picture

Many may say that remploy factories are nothing more than humane workhouses. I would disagree, employment is more than a paid check, employment gives standing companionship and a purpose in life and these people need these things more than most. The remploy factory closures should stop: infact they need expanding.

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