Which cabinet ministers do voters want to sack?

Andrew Lansley, Jeremy Hunt and Theresa May are top of the voters' hit list.

With David Cameron's first full cabinet reshuffle now expected shortly after MPs return from the summer recess on 3 September, the latest Times/Populus poll (£) asked the striking question, which cabinet ministers "should be sacked"? Top of the voters' hit list, with 53 per cent of voters saying he should lose his job, was Andrew Lansley, a reminder that the government's NHS reforms remain one of the biggest obstacles to a Tory victory at the next election. Next was Jeremy Hunt on 48 per cent, followed by Theresa May on 46 per cent, and George Osborne on 45 per cent. Conversely, just 36 per cent want Ken Clarke to be removed, and only 20 per cent think William Hague should be (though the Foreign Office is always a safe haven for ministers).

Hague, increasingly spoken of as the "under the bus" candidate to succeed Cameron, will also be cheered by the finding that 49 per cent of voters believe he's doing a "good job". By contrast, just 18 per cent believe Osborne is, which, given the recent economic data, is no surprise. The poll will likely embolden the growing band of conservative commentators (and even the odd Tory MP) publicly calling for the Chancellor's head. There is much evidence to suggest that Osborne is the biggest drag on the government's ratings. Before his kamikaze Budget, 46 per cent of voters thought the Tories were "competent and capable", now just 34 per cent do, giving Labour a two-point lead on this measure.

The absence of a growth strategy was the key to the Tories' decline; the formation of one is now the key to their revival. But the double-dip means that Osborne's room for manoeuvre is shrinking all the time. Yesterday's IMF growth forecasts (premised on a successful resolution of the eurozone crisis) suggest that he will almost certainly be forced to choose between ripping up his deficit plan (Osborne is still - just - on track to meet his "fiscal mandate" to eliminate the structural deficit over a rolling five-year period and to ensure that net debt is falling as percentage of GDP by the end of this parliament), destroying his reputation as a fiscal hawk, or cutting spending even harder and further strangling growth. This year's autumn statement should already be giving the Chancellor sleepless nights.

Fifty three per cent of voters want David Cameron to remove Health Secretary Andrew Lansley. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Labour’s best general election bet is Keir Starmer

The shadow secretary for Brexit has the heart of a Remainer - but head of a pragmatic politician in Brexit Britain. 

In a different election, the shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer might have been written off as too quiet a man. Instead - as he set out his plans to scrap the Brexit white paper and offer EU citizens reassurance on “Day One” in the grand hall of the Institute of Civil Engineers - the audience burst into spontaneous applause. 

For voters now torn between their loyalty to Labour and Remain, Starmer is a reassuring figure. Although he says he respects the Brexit vote, the former director of public prosecutions is instinctively in favour of collaborating with Europe. He even wedges phrases like “regulatory alignment” into his speeches. When a journalist asked about the practicality of giving EU citizens right to remain before UK citizens abroad have received similar promises, he retorted: “The way you just described it is to use people as bargaining chips… We would not do that.”

He is also clear about the need for Parliament to vote on a Brexit deal in the autumn of 2018, for a transitional agreement to replace the cliff edge, and for membership of the single market and customs union to be back on the table. When pressed on the option of a second referendum, he said: “The whole point of trying to involve Parliament in the process is that when we get to the final vote, Parliament has had its say.” His main argument against a second referendum idea is that it doesn’t compare like with like, if a transitional deal is already in place. For Remainers, that doesn't sound like a blanket veto of #EUref2. 

Could Leave voters in the provinces warm to the London MP for Holborn and St Pancras? The answer seems to be no – The Daily Express, voice of the blue passport brigade, branded his speech “a plot”. But Starmer is at least respectful of the Brexit vote, as it stands. His speech was introduced by Jenny Chapman, MP for Darlington, who berated Westminster for their attitude to Leave voters, and declared: “I would not be standing here if the Labour Party were in anyway attempting to block Brexit.” Yes, Labour supporters who voted Leave may prefer a Brexiteer like Kate Hoey to Starmer,  but he's in the shadow Cabinet and she's on a boat with Nigel Farage. 

Then there’s the fact Starmer has done his homework. His argument is coherent. His speech was peppered with references to “businesses I spoke to”. He has travelled around the country. He accepts that Brexit means changing freedom of movement rules. Unlike Clive Lewis, often talked about as another leadership contender, he did not resign but voted for the Article 50 Bill. He is one of the rare shadow cabinet members before June 2016 who rejoined the front bench. This also matters as far as Labour members are concerned – a March poll found they disapproved of the way Labour has handled Brexit, but remain loyal to Jeremy Corbyn. 

Finally, for those voters who, like Brenda, reacted to news of a general election by complaining "Not ANOTHER one", Starmer has some of the same appeal as Theresa May - he seems competent and grown-up. While EU regulation may be intensely fascinating to Brexiteers and Brussels correspondents, I suspect that by 2019 most of the British public's overwhelming reaction to Brexit will be boredom. Starmer's willingness to step up to the job matters. 

Starmer may not have the grassroots touch of the Labour leader, nor the charisma of backbench dissidents like Chuka Umunna, but the party should make him the de facto face of the campaign.  In the hysterics of a Brexit election, a quiet man may be just what Labour needs.

What did Keir Starmer say? The key points of his speech

  • An immediate guarantee that all EU nationals currently living in the UK will see no change in their legal status as a result of Brexit, while seeking reciprocal measures for UK citizens in the EU. 
  • Replacing the Tories’ Great Repeal Bill with an EU Rights and Protections Bill which fully protects consumer, worker and environmental rights.
  • A replacement White Paper with a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the single market and the customs union. 
  • The devolution of any new powers that are transferred back from Brussels should go straight to the relevant devolved body, whether regional government in England or the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
  • Parliament should be fully involved in the Brexit deal, and MPs should be able to vote on the deal in autumn 2018.
  • A commitment to seek to negotiate strong transitional arrangements when leaving the EU and to ensure there is no cliff-edge for the UK economy. 
  • An acceptance that freedom of movement will end with leaving the EU, but a commitment to prioritise jobs and economy in the negotiations.

Julia Rampen is the digital news editor of the New Statesman (previously editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog). She has also been deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines. 

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