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Labour's revival could sink Scottish independence

When it comes to the Union, Miliband matters.

Labour Party leader Ed Miliband. Photograph: Getty Images.
A sustained revival in Labour's fortunes could seriously damage the independence campaign. Photograph: Getty Images.

There has been almost as much speculation about the timing of the Scottish National Party’s (SNP) referendum on independence as there has been about the outcome of the referendum itself. One common interpretation is that the autumn 2014 date was chosen because it roughly coincides with the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn. Ask any SNP politician and they’ll tell you this is nonsense. The real explanation is that SNP strategists believe Scottish voters will become increasingly susceptible to the appeal of complete political separation from England the closer they get to a Westminster election the Conservatives look likely to win.

The problem for Alex Salmond and his allies in the Yes Scotland campaign is that the odds on David Cameron achieving a second term seem to be steadily diminishing. When the SNP leader revealed his referendum timetable back in January, the Tories enjoyed a lead of five per cent over Labour. The slump in Labour support was precipitated by a string of weak performances by Ed Miliband at Prime Minister’s Questions and a damaging spat with the unions over cuts. Today, following George Osborne’s disastrous budget and the British economy’s slide back into recession, the situation is transformed, with Labour leading the Conservatives by as much as 13 points. What’s more, the confidence of the British public in the Conservatives to manage the economy effectively - an important indicator of any government’s success - has been shattered.

All this bodes well for Labour, but it should be equally encouraging for supporters of the Union: a sustained revival in the party's electoral prospects could seriously damage nationalist hopes of securing independence in two years time. Scottish political culture is to a large extent defined by its anti-Conservatism. Scots see Labour as the most reliable safeguard against the Tories at Westminster and, these days, the SNP as the most effective advocates of Scottish interests from an Edinburgh base. This translates into the constitutional sphere as well. The decisive factor in the reversal of Scottish attitudes towards devolution between 1979 (when just over 50 per cent of voters backed a Scottish legislative assembly) and 1997 (when nearly 75 per cent did) was 18 years of Tory government. This means that if the prospect of an extended period of Tory rule continues to deteriorate over the next 18 months or so, the nationalist argument that independence is a necessary bulwark against the English right could begin to lose its force.

Yet, in terms of the bare politics of the referendum campaign, Labour continues to make bad tactical and strategic errors. Two weeks ago, Miliband - displaying a remarkable disregard for Scottish political sensibilities - said he was “sure” Tony Blair would play a significant role in the fight to save the Union. But nothing would delight nationalists more: by 2007 Blair’s unpopularity in Scotland was so great it helped propel the SNP to power at Holyrood for the first time. The continued support of both the UK and Scottish Labour leaderships for Britain’s Clyde-based nuclear deterrent hands the SNP another campaigning advantage. Most Scots oppose the renewal of Trident, and Alex Salmond will be sure to place his pledge to remove it from Scottish waters at the centre of his case for secession. Finally, and above all, Labour’s refusal to articulate a radical devolutionary alternative to independence leaves the nationalists free to dictate the terms and conditions of the constitutional debate. Scots will be more likely to vote to leave the UK if the unionist parties fail to explain how they want the next phase of devolution to develop.

The challenge for Miliband is to incorporate his party's defence of the Union into a wider narrative of Labour renewal. Recent successes notwithstanding, the party still seems uncertain about how it should reconstruct its identity in the post-Blair era. A commitment to fully modernise the British constitutional system, including fiscal autonomy for Scotland and significant new powers for the Welsh assembly, might be a good way to start. Nevertheless, some members of Scottish Labour may be left wondering why they should look to Miliband and the UK leadership, rather than to Johann Lamont and her team, to secure Scotland’s future as part of the UK. The reality is that for as long Scottish Labour remains a subordinate and attenuated version of British Labour, it will always be a secondary player in the battle against the SNP.

30 comments

taimoshan's picture

a recent poll in Scotland had 35% stating that "Labour are untrustworthy"! - i'm devastated i'd have expected about 95%! Labour are a shambles, a disgrace and numpties like John Ruddy should be ignored. He did not have the courage to back up an outrageous statement he made a few months ago on his own site "Labour Hame" - which by the way appears to have disappeared due to being outthought, outargued and out maneouvred by nationalists. There is now a site for Independence supporting Labourites which is becoming quite interesting!

uglyfatbloke's picture

Remeber when Labour had a 20 point lead in the all the polls? That would have been not long before Kinnock became PM.....if the Tories gain the lead in the next GE campaign the gnats will be the beneficiaries. As things stand just now, a GE would probably result in at least a dozen seats lost by labour and at least 7 lost by the glib-dumbs and they'll all go to the gnats.
Of course things may yet go pera-shaped for the Salmondistas, but I would n't hold my breath. if I had a quid for every time I've heard that the wheels have come off the SNP bandwagon I'd not be worried about my pension.
Labour is not in a happy position really. If the 'No' campaign is guided by Darling, Lamont and Osborne against Salmond, Robertson and Canavan it'll be weak at best and disastrous at worst.
If Labour want to be the winners in the referendum they will need to offer something worth voting for - the current Scotland Act may seem significant to MPs, but nobody else is impressed. The first unionist party to opt for FFA will reap the benefits of offering the electorate what the electorate wants as opposed to what politicians would like them to want. If the tories were smart they'd do it right now(and adopt a seriously libertarian approach to civil liberties) and then they'd be on their way to challenging Labour to be the second party in Scottish politics...it's way too late for the glib-dumbs. Carmichael is safe in his seat, Kennedy might win a seat and Campbell will hang on to his if he does not retire, but the rest of them are toast.

Indu Pendent's picture

Dont agree with this.

The Scots arent so shallow/ stupid as to mix up London Labour Tory politics with Independence. They have shown then can hate Labour as much as the Tories so Independence is not party political -- for hundreds of years a large slice of Scotts have seen the English as uninvited foreign invaders and are draining the oil.

Tories are Tories which ever country that are in and are not going to vote SNP. But a rise of Labour in England will boost support for the SNP as milions of Scotts dont think Labour represents them. If Labour stands a chance of winning then the anti-Tory vote go to the SNP not to Labour.

But a vote for independence to break the Union and a vote for SNP are not the same thing. Once is nationalistic and the other is party political.

Benjamin Rae's picture

Nationalism is still nationalism wether it is cloaked in a union flag, St George's cross or saltire.
There is an element of truth in the referendum being over and above party politics. However, a problem arises when when you look at the differences between English and Scottish politics. England is obviously a much larger country so sets the tone more for UK politics quite rightly.
That's where the overlap into party politics comes. A lot of Labour voters in Scotland vote for them out of anti Tory sentiment. They aren't that happy with them either. Many voters feel they don't really get the Labour party they want even when they get in. The opportunity to vote for party's that better reprsent their views is where it becomes part political

Indu Pendent's picture

Yes I closely agree with this which puts is nicely.

Scottish and the rest of the Union's politics are definitely different. SNP collects both the "Scottish Party" (who want more representation for Scotland) and the "Nationalist Party" vote (who want to break the Union).

Its why I dont agree with the article -- English Labour growing or shinking will impact on the SP vote but not on the NP vote.

Baz's picture

Labour still doesn't listen to the folk in Scotland and until they do, Milliband won't get a look in. Interesting how your article barely mentioned Johann Lamont or any of the Scottish MSPs - as ever, very londonocentric and totally missing the point! Why would scottish labour voters revert to a party which ignores its core values? It supports neo-liberal policies and Trident to placate the South East of England. If Labour were true to Scotland, it would be supporting at least more powers for Holyrood.

John Ruddy's picture

Yet another commentator who doesnt bother reading the article.

Firstly, one of the biggest arguments for independence is that we have "no more Tory Governments".

If it looks like Labour will take over in 2015 - and it looks increasingly likely - that argument looses its potency.

This article is NOT about Labour's fortunes in Scotland, or indeed about how Johann Lamont is performing. Hence why it is not surprising to find she is not mentioned.

Baz's picture

Just because I didn't agree with the article doesn't mean I didn't read it

The point you spectacularly fail to grasp is that we don't care what public schoolboy is sitting in No 10, its about creating politics that benefit folk at a local level. Scottish Labour are ideally placed to do this but dont' succeed because they continuously toe the line dictated to them by their overlords in Westminster. And just because Cameron apparently comes across as marginally less competent than Milliband at present, isn't exactly a reassurance. On a UK level, Labour are practically inseparable from the Tories. Lamont could attempt to distinguish herself but she doesn't have the drive.

John Ruddy's picture

And you didnt even read your own comment before replying to me.

You said "Miliband wont even get a look in" - and I said that you hadnt read the article, because it was about the prospect of a Labour Government in London makes one of the fear-mongering issues used by nationalists to push for independence weaker - and hence making support for independence lower (30% in latest poll).

Labour can - and has won elections at westminster regardless of the number of MPs from Scotland. (only 1 election since the war would have had a change of result if you disregarded the MPs from Scotland) So regardless of what voters think here, the prospects for a Labour government are good - at least better than they were say 12 months ago.

Unless you are saying that the article is wrong in saying that such fear-mongering isnt part of the push for independence? In which case I will point you to countless instances of "We dont want to be ruled by Tories in London whatever we vote for" etc...

taimoshan's picture

I'm afraid John that I can't take your comments seriously after your serious gaffe on "Labour Hame" a few months ago, which when challenged you ran away from!

John Ruddy's picture

And you didnt even read your own comment before replying to me.

You said "Miliband wont even get a look in" - and I said that you hadnt read the article, because it was about the prospect of a Labour Government in London makes one of the fear-mongering issues used by nationalists to push for independence weaker - and hence making support for independence lower (30% in latest poll).

Labour can - and has won elections at westminster regardless of the number of MPs from Scotland. (only 1 election since the war would have had a change of result if you disregarded the MPs from Scotland) So regardless of what voters think here, the prospects for a Labour government are good - at least better than they were say 12 months ago.

Unless you are saying that the article is wrong in saying that such fear-mongering isnt part of the push for independence? In which case I will point you to countless instances of "We dont want to be ruled by Tories in London whatever we vote for" etc...

Cath's picture

"This means that if the prospect of an extended period of Tory rule continues to deteriorate over the next 18 months or so, the nationalist argument that independence is a necessary bulwark against the English right could begin to lose its force."

The trouble for Labour is that, for many Scots (and I'm fairly right wing compared to many up here) Labour *are* part of the right. Blairism was a natural heir to Thatcherism, and Labour are pro-trident, pro-market and privatisation, pro-war, pro-student fees etc, etc.

Another issue for all the unionst parties is that they are several years too late to the debate. When the SNP won in 2005, they could have taken part in the debate with the Scottish public and civic Scotland that the SNP set up at that time. Instead they chose to all retreat into a unionist/Westminster coalition to try and frustrate good governance (especially bad of the Lib Dems, who’s manifesto was almost entirely identical to the SNPs and included full fiscal autonomy). This opposition Westminster coalition didn’t join the debate, but instead pushed through Calman and the Scotland Bill, which has no support here.

In 2011, when they were rewarded for those tactics with a landslide SNP victory, they could then have started listening and crafting a position within the debate. Again, they didn’t, but have chosen instead to hammer Salmond for listening, and being willing to look at devo-max, full fiscal autonomy as a democratic option.

The article says Labour should commit “to fully modernise the British constitutional system, including fiscal autonomy for Scotland and significant new powers for the Welsh assembly”. Sorry, but under what democratic mandate? We’re having the debate now, and the referendum in 2014. That’s what Labour should have done several years ago, rather than be in a status quo Westminster coalition. The window for them to do that before 2014, so it can be put to the Scottish people democratically, is rapidly closing. What they can’t do is knock Salmond for being willing to consider that option now, say it’s impossible, refuse to discuss it, and veto it's including in the referendum. Then say they might impose it through Westminster later with no further referendum, but only if enough people in England vote for them. Or at least, they can, but if that's what they're relying on Scottish people to vote "no" for, they shouldn't get their hopes up.

Stuart Eels's picture

Come on then Dobber, give your facts and figures to prove your insistance that Scotland has done so. This fantasy has been pushed in recent years by people like you but when asked to supply official figures it proves rather illusive.

Stuart Eels's picture

What a load of rubbish, you poor poor put upon Scots by we wicked wicked English. For 8.8% of the entire UK population you certainly squack the loudest! Closely followed by the Welsh Nationalists, who make up 4% of the UK population.

You don't even notice the irony of this gabble about English tyranny when we are on our third Scottish PM of the UK in a roll. That the last Labour UK Government's Cabinet was dominated by Scots who had all signed the Scottish Claim of Right in which they pledged to put the interests of Scotland above all others! As with the Welsh armchair warrior yesterday bellowing about English oppression, when asked by the presenter to name any oppression since Edward and his gang built the Castles was suddenly struck dumb.

If your two "nations" want your independence, the surest way to get it is to allow we the English to vote on it but you don't want it really, who else would you blame for your woes!

As for Rick Mccallister, why I would never have guessed that your were a Yank with your towering intellect nearly matching Mitt the twit!

Benjamin Rae's picture

For a start, Cameron is not Scottish. His father was Scottish but he's been born and bred in England. If you knew anything about Scottish politics you'd also know that his politics are offensive to the vast majority of Scots.
Second of all, Scottish argument is with what they see as a despicable political system in Westminster.
English people are also failed terribly by the system. You try and separate the issues a little better than to broaden your dislike quite so much

dobber's picture

For years Scotland has been putting more money in than any country in the UK but has been given the least back.
It is because of this and the general ignorance of English like yourselves that we are all fed up of being in a union with you.

8.8% of the population and bringing in the majority of the income. Read it and weep. The GERS report that is.

TH43's picture

I can't see if the Scottish bank bailout was attributed to Scotland in the GERS stats. Can you tell me if they were?

MajorBloodnok's picture

Yes, it's not included in GERS for the very same reason that the people of Bradford and Bingley were not expected to stump up for the failure of the financial institution named after their places of residence. Although by your reckoning no doubt you think that the masses of Hong Kong and Shanghai should have to carry the can for HSBC's recent misdemeanors?

RolftheGanger's picture

'Could' is a dead give away as another way of saying 'wishful thinking/hopeful theorising' - about a wish that is phrased that way, because it is not going to happen in reality.

The core incorrect assumptions underlying the article are:

The status quo and continuity will be the norm, ongoing.
Labour are seen as different and more desirable by Scots voters than the Tories. (LedDums** are political dead, still walking)
That survey intention to vote Labour equates to liking or valuing Labour/the Milliband leadership.
Past historical voting patterns continue into the future.
Turning points and voting collapses of confidence do not happen (a Ramsay MacDonald moment coming up?)
A particular timing sequence of referendum/GE.
No major: 'events, dear boy' occurring.

Some thoughts:
Labour may be superficially popular now, till the spotlight turns on them. Milliband shows up weak, party policies even weaker. Middle England has second thoughts and recoils from a repeat of Blair/Brown. Scotland decides that instead of tactical voting for Labour to head off a Labour government, that they opt in droves for the SNP for the same purpose. Scotland and EWNI continue to diverge in values, politics and results.

The above presupposes arriving at another UK GE. But the looming prospect of another Tory/Labour UK government, with marginal differences in actual policies, increasingly strikes Scots as: "which do you prefer to be? - fried or boiled?" With the SNP gaining.

As to 'events', not hard to predict that just as equally 'could' happen as a Labour revival:
Inability to turn UK deficit around - financial, economic, political crisis.
More parliamentary scandal.
Yet another Defence scandal, incompetence, malpractice.
More bankster scandals.
Monarchical succession goes astray.
More social disruption - in English cities.
Some terrorist events. In England.

None adding to Union prestige, standing or loyalty.
Resultant social and political distancing by Scottish electors.
(Citing possibilities is not willing them on anyone.)

Some Scottish ones:
The lid finally comes off the crony shady links of the West of Scotland Labour tammany hall. With major fall-out.
Massive internal debate as grassroots members rebel, for a pro-independence vote. (already started) Or expulsions drastically weaken the rump.
Labour in Scotland genuine old style socialists go into open party civil war with the Blairite/Milliband 'win middle England' brigade.
Cameron gets too smart for his own good - calls a referendum on Westminster terms - and loses.

** Perhaps better nicknamed "DumDums"
(Defined as a hollow-headed, lead, bullet. Noted for disintegrating on reaching its target, inflicting massive collateral damage"

poet99's picture

wish i lived in an independent Scotland

RolftheGanger's picture

Only have to wait till 2014, plus 3 months negotiations, to provide for major transition implementations.

DMyers's picture

Labour may be having a revival, but it's not happening in Scotland. The latest poll shows Labour's vote down and the SNP's up. Therefore this piece is nothing short of fantasy.

John Ruddy's picture

Did you actually READ the article? The revival which spikes the SNP is at a national level - the fact that there wont be a Tory Government after 2015.

Cath's picture

And what are Labour actually offering Scotland that is likely to "spike" the SNP? They are a negative, whinging, backward party that does nothing but knock Scotland. Politics is changing in Scotland and Labour are not part of the change. They're not part of the solution here but the problem.

Rick Mc Callister's picture

Perhaps if they moved the capital of the UK to its rightful location, Edinburgh. Remember that James VI was King of Scotland and raced down with an army to conquer England after the death of his cousin, to make sure other contenders were out of the way. But his rightful existing capital was Edinburgh. There is also a need to correctly number the royalty. The present Queen is really Elizabeth I --the English line died out. I'm an American and I know that!

VoxAngliae's picture

I fear Mr. McCalliister that you have been hoodwinked by the Braveheart Brigade of historians. James VI had no need of an army to "conquer"England.He had already been invited to take the throne as he was next in line by virtue of his bloodline.Queen Elizabeth(Good Queen Bess as we English call her)was the first of that name .Our present monarch is therefore Queen Elizabeth the Second, Queen of England. Not hard to understand if you clear your mind of the wishful thinking of silly Scotch nationalists. Conquered England indeed!When did Scotland ever conquer anybody?

RolftheGanger's picture

The only "army" that Jamie Saxt took along on his rather leisurely amble to London, was a pack of royalist noble hangers-on. Oh and 'Jinglin' Geordie' Heriot to collect the bribes for those Jami knighted/'nighted' along the way to pay his expenses!

Benjamin Rae's picture

James Maxwell as usual makes some reasonable points. However, what will not be forgotten is how weak and hypocritical Labour opposition to the horrendous onslaught that has come from what is clearly an extremely right wing government. Truth is, Labour believes much of the same stuff but isn't quite as extreme with it.
Kenelmist is right. It would be just about impossible not to improve on what has come before

kenelmist's picture

We are now experiencing all out war on the poor and vulnerable. This is not going away, in fact it is getting ever worse.

Scots need to be rid of the fools and knaves in England who are landing these blows on the innocent.

Whatever we do will be better.

RolftheGanger's picture

Like me, I hope you are encouraged by the picture above - Milliband waving Scotland goodbye and good speed!

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