Was this the moment Cameron doomed Lords reform?

Cameron's past description of Lords reform as a "third-term issue" has encouraged the rebels.

David Cameron's 2009 description of House of Lords reform as a "third-term issue" does much to explain why so many Conservative MPs will rebel against the government in tomorrow's vote. Reform of the Lords was, Cameron suggested, something a Conservative government would only undertake once it had implemented the rest of its programme. For Tory MPs, his words are a reminder that the bill was only introduced to placate the Lib Dems and that Cameron failed to win an election he should have won. That there is little prospect of the Tories winning a third term (or one term, come to that) is, in their view, even more reason for Cameron to use his time in Number 10 wisely (i.e. to get Britain out of recession, not waste time on liberal fetishes like Lords reform).

The danger facing Cameron as the parliamentary debate begins is not that the bill will be defeated on its second reading (since Labour will support the government) but that the programme motion, which would place a 10-day limit on debate, will be rejected (since Labour, which wants more time to scrutinise the bill, will oppose the government). This would be the first time the government has been defeated on its own business in the Commons and would, in the words of one Lib Dem aide, put the coalition in "uncharted territory". The absence of a time limit for debate would allow MPs to filibuster the bill and would delay the rest of the government's legislative programme.

If the bill does become marooned in the Commons, one possibility is that the government will agree to a referendum on the subject. Labour has already called for one and at least some of the Tory rebels (such as Nadhim Zahawi and Rory Stewart) also support a public vote. For the latter, flushed with success from the AV campaign, a Lords referendum is another chance to give Nick Clegg a bloody nose.

Clegg has always insisted that a referendum is unnecessary since all three of the main parties supported Lords reform in their manifestos. But he would find it hard to argue that the people should not decide if parliament is divided. One suspects that Cameron, who has left the door open to a referendum, will look again at this option if the rebels carry the day.

Tory MPs could hand David Cameron his first Commons defeat tomorrow over House of Lords reform. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty Images
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Stella Creasy targeted for deselection

Organisers on the left believe the Walthamstow MP is the ideal target for political, personal and geographical reasons.

Stella Creasy, the high-profile MP for Walthamstow and defeated deputy Labour leadership candidate, is the first serious target of an attempt to deselect a sitting Labour MP, the New Statesman has learnt.

Creasy, who is on the right of the party, is believed to be particularly vulnerable to an attempt to replace her with an MP closer to the Labour party’s left. Her constituency, and the surrounding borough of Waltham Forest, as well as the neighbouring borough of Leyton and Wanstead, has a large number both of new members, inspired either to join or return to Labour by Jeremy Corbyn, plus a strong existing network of leftwing groupings and minor parties.

An anti-bombing demonstration outside of Creasy’s constituency offices in Walthamstow – the MP is one of around 80 members of Parliament who have yet to decide how to vote on today’s motion on airstrikes in Syria – is the latest in a series of clashes between supporters of Creasy and a series of organized leftwing campaigns.

Allies of Creasy were perturbed when Momentum, the grassroots body that represents the continuation of Corbyn’s leadership campaign, held a rally in her constituency the night of the Autumn Statement, without inviting the MP. They point out that Momentum is supposedly an outward-facing campaign supporting Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party towards the 2020 general election and the forthcoming local and European elections. Labour holds 27 out of 27 council seats in Creasy’s constituency, while Creasy herself has a majority of 23,195 votes.

“If you look at the seat, there is nothing to win here,” said one Labour member, who believes that Momentum and other groups are planning to depose Creasy. Momentum has denied any plot to remove Creasy as the MP.

However, Creasy has come under pressure from within her local party in recent weeks over the coming vote on bombing Syria. Asim Mahmood, a Labour councilor in Creasy’s constituency, has called for any MP who votes for bombing to face a trigger ballot and reselection. Creasy hit back at Mahmood on Facebook, saying that while she remained uncertain of how to vote: “the one thing I will not do is be bullied by a sitting Walthamstow Labour councilor with the threat of deselection if I don’t do what he wants”.

Local members believe that Mahmood may be acting as the stalking horse for his sister, the current mayor of Waltham Forest, Saima Mahmud, who may be a candidate in the event of a trigger ballot against Creasy. Another possible candidate in a selection battle is Steven Saxby, a local vicar. Unite, the recognized trade union of the Anglican Communion, is a power player in internal Labour politics.

Although Creasy has kept her own counsel about the direction of the party under Corbyn, she is believed to be more vulnerable to deselection than some of the leader’s vocal critics, as her personal style has led to her being isolated in her constituency party. Creasy is believed to be no longer on speaking terms with Chris Robbins, the leader of the council, also from the right of the party.

Others fear that the moves are an attempt by Creasy’s local opponents to prepare the ground for a challenge to Creasy should the seat be redrawn following boundary changes. The mood in the local party is increasingly febrile.  The chair of the parliamentary Labour party, John Cryer, whose Leyton and Wanstead seat is next to Creasy’s constituency, is said to fear that a fundraiser featuring the shadow foreign secretary, Hilary Benn, will take an acrimonious turn. Cryer was one of just four shadow cabinet ministers to speak against airstrikes in Syria.

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.