Salmond remains the Scottish Yes campaign’s biggest asset
Despite recent setbacks, the First Minister's ratings remain higher than those of any party leader.
By Mark Diffley Published 17 July 2012 13:44
There is little doubt that Alex Salmond, the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the "Yes" to independence campaign have had a bruising few months. Ipsos-MORI's June poll clearly illustrated this triple whammy with support for independence falling to 35%, SNP ratings dropping by four points and net satisfaction with the First Minister falling by nine points since December to +13%.
Salmond has long been held in high esteem by other politicians and commentators across the UK and beyond. Admired by supporters and colleagues and respected by opponents, he has long had an aura of dominance not seen since the early days of the Blair premiership.
So is the recent slump in the First Minister’s popularity a blip from which he will recover or a sign of more bad news ahead? Of course, given it’s the issue dominating Scottish politics at present, the public’s view of Salmond is going to be parly tied up with attitudes towards independence. Some commentators interpret recent setbacks as explicable in the context of a summer where Britishness is being celebrated through the jubilee and the Olympics, in the aftermath of a criticised launch of the "Yes" campaign and amidst the continued economic gloom which may lead voters to feel more anxious about their jobs and mortgages if Scotland were to break away from the rest of the UK.
Yet despite these setbacks, the First Minister commands higher levels of satisfaction than any party leader in Holyrood or Westminster and a look at Ipsos-MORI data from the 1970s onwards shows that even his reduced ratings in recent polls make him the envy of most political leaders.
Our August 2011 poll, conducted with the SNP still basking in the glory of its unprecedented election victory, showed 62% of Scots satisfied with the job the First Minister was doing. Put in context this is only surpassed in any meaningful way by the early days of the New Labour government when Blair enjoyed approval ratings of up to 75% among British voters in late 1997 and in 1998. When you consider that Salmond has been in power since 2007, his approval ratings are still high when compared with those of any Prime Minister after the same length of time in office.
There are two other noteworthy aspects of Salmond’s ratings. First, his personal approval rating far outweighs support for independence. Second, his rating is high among that vital group in the electorate, those who support greater powers for the Scottish Parliament but who oppose independence. This is the group that the "Yes" campaign has to win over if it is to stand any chance of winning the referendum in 2014, 48% of whom think Salmond is doing a good job. Both these factors point to the First Minister’s ability to appeal to those who don’t necessarily agree with everything he stands for.
There are significant challenges ahead for the First Minister, not least the need to address the fact that support for him and for independence is lower among women and older people than among other groups of voters. There is also the fundamental problem that support for independence is not moving beyond around a third of voters in any poll, with little sign of this changing. But this is a long campaign and there is time to address these challenges. And as things currently stand, the First Minister remains Scotland’s dominant politician and a clear asset to the "Yes" campaign.
Mark Diffley is research director of Ipsos-MORI Scotland. He tweets as @markdiffley1.
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16 comments
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Salmond's has not suffered setbacks, but vicious attacks from his political rivals and their slavish media.
A Scot and E Robertson, to prove my point I refer you to The Scotsman headline "Scotland in recession: Alex Salmond looks to London to rescue Scotland's economy." and the moronic hate filled comments that follow it!
Nice article..... interesting.
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A Scot
I would merely point you to the post by E Robertson and it's continual whine about how unfairly the the Scots have been treated by UK governments, the bias against Scots shown by the BBC, the "anti-Scots feelings" experienced by his son and moan about reality shows foe heavens sake.
The Scots were not forced into the Union by invasion or war but by financial ruin, were given two chances to vote on Devolution whilst England were never given a vote on anything other than Prescott's break-up of our country.
Hey I must stop that line of arguement, I am beginning to sound like an English version of Mr Robertson! I would merely point out that millions of Scots have come south and I don't see any of them being racially attacked. I did however read in Scotland on Sunday that the safety of English People in Scotland could not be guaranteed under the anti sectarian laws brought in by the Scottish Government, quoting cases from 2010 like the disabled Englishman being dragged from his car and beaten and a fifteen year old girl being scarred for life. I then read the coments from "moderate" readers after the article which ran to hundreds and were mostly completely hostile to the English and I can't quite square that with your comments nor poor put upon Mr Roberstson.
Your absolutely kidding yourself if you think it's one way. Not going to deny that there is an issue in Scotland. However it's not as widespread as some like to suggest. Rather a lot of Scottish people have English relatives.
You just have to look at some of the press coverage in England towards Scottish people. Read some Daily Mail articles on Scotland and their comments sections. The Daily Telegraph's 'Haggis Eating Surrender Monkeys' headline . Then there's the lies told about finances.
They are playing to a substantial anti Scottish feeling in their readerships.
It's not right when it happens in Scotland and it's not right when it happens in England
When I was a labour voter I always thought Eck was smug, in all honesty I think I was just over 30 years brainwashed by Labour that I believed every negative thing about him. When I became massively disillusioned by Labour and more so Scot Labour last year especially when I seen how little help main labour gave Scottish labour in way of support or help in our elections. I was at the count and seen how much SNP were winning in my area and we have always been mostly labour for decades. We worked our butts off and not once did I think down south cared, probably took the Scots vote for granted so I can imagine how Miliband must have felt when the Scottish elections were read out. I spoke to my labour friends that though I believed in them I did not like what Labour had become and by time Lamont became leader I was glad I'd cancelled my membership. I sat on fence for a while and started to see that Eck's smugness wasn't so bad and it was actually he was just a happy type of guy. I read many articles,blogs and within 6 months I had not only became SNP but pro Independent. I feel trust and belief in Eck that I no longer have in Labour. It took me a while to accept that they were as dirty and nasty as Tories and were determined to stop independence at all costs. I miss my labour friends and I guess they must feel it when I am ranting about Scotish Labour but they know I dont mean them and I secretly believe they agree with some of the things I talked about where Labour was all wrong. Scottish labour are selfish, they are fighting for their jobs at Westminster and for their party but most certainly not for the Scots. If they truly were they'd agree with Independence or Devo Max. Even a fool knows we in Scotland are not getting treated in any way fairly or with any decency. I cannot forgive Labour for putting their interests before ours. I just seriously hope that like me people will open their eyes and at least see it from the Independence/SNP side if only to see what they say. I'd also advise that folk do not believe all written in the pro union papers as most of them are English owned so are not sbeing impartial as they should be. The real truth is over the net, you just have to look for it especially on twitter.
truth on twitter...wait ..AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
My opinion, addressed to another medium, bears on this matter:
The case for a four-question referendum
Opponents of SNP leader and first minister Alex Salmond are adept in the use of pejorative language. But it is inept when it comes from alleged supporters who failed to achieve the success he has had. John Gilmour’s quotation about a two question referendum should read “ a cop-out for naïve dummies”. (Letters, 17 July).
My reading of Mr Salmond’s position is that he favours a single question referendum, but if there was sufficient pressure for a second question on further powers, then that could not be ruled out. But independence would remain on the ballot paper. Opponents try to mock the possibility of the “what if” situation should there be, say, a 49% vote for independence, and a 51% vote for more powers. Of course, that is an absurd proposition. The questions would be framed: Do you favour independence – Yes or No. If NO, do you wish further powers?
Mr Gilmour [in The Scotsman] speculates about the need for three questions: independence, more powers, or the status quo. However, he overlooks the fact that the “status quo” in the shape of what we have now will cease to exist in 2016, coincidental with the 2016 Holyrood election. The passing of the Scotland Act 2012 will bring in the discredited Calman tax proposals which have not been approved by the Scottish people.
If there is a No to independence vote, Calman would click in, and the Unionist parties, whether the present coalition or not, would have won, arguing that, with independence out of the way, the extra powers from Calman would satisfy any demand for additional powers, so no alternative would be required.
But the scandal over Calman is that, in February, David Cameron made his “offer” of Scotland being given more powers if they voted No, while the Scotland Bill was unfinished business in Westminster.
So, in order to authenticate the democratic process, we really need a fourth question seeking views on what is, effectively, the second status quo of Calman.
My post was about the results of polls and what the Scottish media were interpreting them to mean, trends etc. I did give my opinion on how any devo-max option could be and is being interpreted by scottish media sources (try the Glasgow Herald) and my personal view. They have a whole section of articles on the Referendum with comment and you will get a flavour of Scottish opinion if you so wish. I am entitled to an opinion of my own am I not. I did not refer to the English people as being overbearing in this post or any other for that matter. You say it is the Scots who feel this way, I would disagree with you there. We want Independence for our country yes but that desire is about us not anyone else. I am not the Scots, I am only one person giving my personal view on how my fellow countrymen and women may be thinking. I am talking about political parties, societal structures and I think you will find I do not mention the English people at all. I am talking about polls, results and political parties. I am not advocating a third option. I am merely reporting that there is a sizeable portion of the electorate who do want it at the moment. I myself will vote for Indepndence. By the way, if one is allowed an opinion, although you say Corporation Tax would be devolved along with other taxes, quite a few people including myself doubt this because it's all hypothetical at the moment. Such power needs to be made concrete, in writing, legislated for before people vote , otherwise you are taking them for fools and asking them to vote blindly on something which is not formulated. If it is legislated for beforehand then we will be able to see if there are circumstances where Westminister could overrule any Scottish decisions. We will not take a promise as worth anything, because as you no doubt know we had that before with Sir A. Hume. His selling point was vote NO and we will give you something better. No-one is buying that again.
A Scot
I am amazed that you have the cheek to want three options on your referendum, Scots have been telling us for years that they want their freedom from the overbearing English, yet now you want Devo-max. A Scottish Parliament with devo-max could set it's own Corperation Tax Rates and Personal Income Tax Rates and even more unfairly than now pull English Companies north of the Border.
Have the courage of your convictions and vote for Independence, if you want me to come up and help your campaign you only have to ask!
It's not about the English or England it's about the UK. We want to be free of the UK and thinking English people should look at freeing themselves from the cabal ensconced there too. An English Parliament is badly needed.
Totally agree! Sadly many take it personally but if they thought about it and put England where Scotland is and knew all we knew and how unfairly we have been treated by UK governments throughout the years they would without a doubt be asking for their English Independence if they were in our shoes. I'm sure every English person craves their Independence too, we have long since agreed with the fact their should have been an English parliament, we have always been supportive of that. Whats angering me is how we are getting treated now. My son lives in England and he says anti Scottish feeling has greatly increased in last few years, the BBC bias is terrible and I know its petty but even reality shows are treating Scots with disdain.Its not like we have never been an Independent country, I'm sure the English would be angry too if they'd been sold for a few pieces of gold by dodgy posh guys from England and Scotland. Its in our blood to be an Independent country, I think the passionate riots against union has passed from generation to generation and its a feeling within us thats so strong. In stead of taking it personally and being angry they need to learn empathy and put themselves in our shoes.
You are very selective and one sided in the analysis and statistics you provide. You did not mention that in another poll taken only recently: a respected poll TNS, found that support for independence had slipped by 3% but the status quo had also reduced by the same margin of 3%. The deduction from that and other data is that 65%-70% of the population are advocating more powers for the Scottish government. This % is not mine but can be found in recent Scottish media reporting. More powers remain as yet undefined by the Unionists and it is only them who can deliver these powers . If they continue to remain undefined you can take from me and others I have spoken to, Scots will not be voting NO to independence but rather YES . If there is no viable democratic choice on the ballot paper for devo-max as opposed to some vague future promise they will choose Independence. The staus quo is not an option. You try to equate those who are in favour of more powers, which by the way is full fiscal autonomy as being automatically opposed therefore to Independence that is not the case. These people are for change they just need further assurances of what that change will entail. They are open to the discussion and capable of being persuaded of Independence's many merits. If those people wanting FFA aren't offered it, they are not going into the NO camp. They will vote for indpendence if there isn't a second question. They know the status quo is not the staus quo: it comes with changes cuts, job losses etc but more worringly Westminister will tighten control over Holyrood if a NO vote is delivered and no-one is voting for that.
You are very selective and one sided in the analysis and statistics you provide. You did not mention that in another poll taken only recently: a respected poll TNS, found that support for independence had slipped by 3% but the status quo had also reduced by the same margin of 3%. The deduction from that and other data is that 65%-70% of the population are advocating more powers for the Scottish government. This % is not mine but can be found in recent Scottish media reporting. More powers remain as yet undefined by the Unionists and it is only them who can deliver these powers . If they continue to remain undefined you can take from me and others I have spoken to, Scots will not be voting NO to independence but rather YES . If there is no viable democratic choice on the ballot paper for devo-max as opposed to some vague future promise they will choose Independence. The staus quo is not an option. You try to equate those who are in favour of more powers, which by the way is full fiscal autonomy as being automatically opposed therefore to Independence that is not the case. These people are for change they just need further assurances of what that change will entail. They are open to the discussion and capable of being persuaded of Independence's many merits. If those people wanting FFA aren't offered it, they are not going into the NO camp. They will vote for indpendence if there isn't a second question. They know the status quo is not the staus quo: it comes with changes cuts, job losses etc but more worringly Westminister will tighten control over Holyrood if a NO vote is delivered and no-one is voting for that.
Mark writes, "Salmond has long been held in high esteem by other politicians and commentators across the UK and beyond. Admired by supporters and colleagues and respected by opponents ... "
What, the same Alex Salmond who enthusiastically backed the Royal Bank of Scotland’s disastrous takeover of Dutch bank ABN-Amro?
In May 2007 Salmond wrote to RBS boss Sir Fred Goodwin, the ‘brain’ behind this deal, which broke the bank (for which Salmond used to work):
“Dear Fred, It is in Scottish interests for RBS to be successful, and I would like to offer any assistance my office can provide. Good luck with the bid. Yours for Scotland, Alex.”
Scotland’s secretary for finance, John Swinney, also backed the takeover, writing that the deal was ‘an enormous achievement for RBS’.
As late as March 2008, Salmond was still selling Edinburgh’s bankers as proof that Scotland could stand on its own as part of an ‘arc of prosperity’ with Ireland and Iceland. He told an audience at Harvard, “With RBS and HBOS - two of the world’s largest banks - Scotland has global leaders today, tomorrow and for the long-term.”
Salmond blames ‘English’ light touch regulation for the damage to Scottish banking, but he didn’t criticise it at the time.