PMQs review: an end-of-term triumph for Miliband

The Labour leader is growing in confidence as Cameron's woes multiply.

Perhaps the only consolation that David Cameron can draw from today's PMQs is that he won't have to do it again for seven weeks. It is hard to recall a more confident performance from Ed Miliband or a more faltering one from Cameron. 

If Cameron thinks that the solution to his woes is to revive the "Red Ed" jibe, he's in even more trouble than we thought. That was the put-down that he fell back on after Miliband quipped: "the redder he gets, the less he convinces people". When the Labour leader referred to the PM's altercation with Conservative MP Jesse Norman, Cameron denounced him for recycling "tittle tattle" and "half-baked gossip" (note that he did not deny the encounter). But it was Cameron who came unstuck when Miliband turned to two issues of substance: the double-dip recession "made in Downing Street" and the "millionaires' tax cut". Cameron has still not found a convincing way to rebut the charge that he "makes the wrong choices and stands up for the wrong people". His tactic of blaming "the mess" left by the last Labour government ("we will never forget what we were left by the party opposite," he said) may have worked in the early days of the coalition but it is subject to ever-diminishing returns. Most voters view it as an evasive attempt to shift the blame for Britain's economic woes.

Cameron's strongest line was his declaration that "we back the workers, they back the shirkers". As the polls indicate, the benefits caps is (lamentably) the most popular coalition policy. But the problem for Cameron is that he has failed to live up to the first part of this injunction. He has raised VAT and cut tax credits for the working poor, while handing a £40,000 tax cut to 14,000 millionaires. Back in January, when Miliband's leadership was at its lowest ebb, almost no one would have forecast that he, not Cameron, would end the session in a position of strength. That he has done is reflective not only of his improved performance but of the series of disastrous blunders Cameron has made.

Ed Miliband said of Cameron: "the redder he gets, the less he convinces people". Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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