The fate of Lords reform now rests in Labour's hands

With the Tories irretrievably divided, the bill's future depends on Labour.

As was rumoured this morning, David Cameron has now dropped the programme motion on House of Lords reform, which would have limited debate on the bill to 10 days. With upwards of 70 Tories prepared to join Labour and vote against the motion, there was no hope of it making it past the Commons. In withdrawing the motion, Cameron has merely brought forward the government's defeat.

The second reading vote will still go ahead and, with the support of Labour, the bill will proceed with a large majority. But unless the government introduces a guillotine motion at a later date, the risk remains that MPs will talk it into the ground.

The upshot is that the fate of Lords reform now rests in Labour's hands. If Ed Miliband's party agrees to support closure motions to limit debate on the bill, the legislation could yet make it through the Commons. Responding to Cameron's move, Sadiq Khan has pledged that Labour will do all it can "to ensure the bill progresses". The party's opposition to the programme motion was not, he said, a "wrecking tactic" but an attempt to improve an "inadequate bill".

As Khan's words imply, Cameron and Nick Clegg will need to offer concessions in order to win his party's support. The most obvious would be a referendum on Lords reform, as proposed by Labour in its 2010 manifesto. This would have the added benefit of placating at least some of the Conservative rebels, such as Nadhim Zahawi and Rory Stewart, who have said they would be prepared to support the bill were a public vote promised. Others, flushed with success after the AV campaign, simply want the chance to give Clegg another bloody nose. (We must hope the voters decide otherwise.)

The Lib Dem leader has always resisted a referendum on the grounds that all three of the main parties supported reform in their manifestos. But with parliament divided, he will find it hard to argue that the people should not be given a say. Tonight, a referendum looks like the only way to avoid yet another defeat for reform.

Labour leader Ed Miliband has called for a referendum on Lords reform. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Labour's establishment suspects a Momentum conspiracy - they're right

Bernie Sanders-style organisers are determined to rewire the party's machine.  

If you wanted to understand the basic dynamics of this year’s Labour leadership contest, Brighton and Hove District Labour Party is a good microcosm. On Saturday 9 July, a day before Angela Eagle was to announce her leadership bid, hundreds of members flooded into its AGM. Despite the room having a capacity of over 250, the meeting had to be held in three batches, with members forming an orderly queue. The result of the massive turnout was clear in political terms – pro-Corbyn candidates won every position on the local executive committee. 

Many in the room hailed the turnout and the result. But others claimed that some in the crowd had engaged in abuse and harassment.The national party decided that, rather than first investigate individuals, it would suspend Brighton and Hove. Add this to the national ban on local meetings and events during the leadership election, and it is easy to see why Labour seems to have an uneasy relationship with mass politics. To put it a less neutral way, the party machine is in a state of open warfare against Corbyn and his supporters.

Brighton and Hove illustrates how local activists have continued to organise – in an even more innovative and effective way than before. On Thursday 21 July, the week following the CLP’s suspension, the local Momentum group organised a mass meeting. More than 200 people showed up, with the mood defiant and pumped up.  Rather than listen to speeches, the room then became a road test for a new "campaign meetup", a more modestly titled version of the "barnstorms" used by the Bernie Sanders campaign. Activists broke up into small groups to discuss the strategy of the campaign and then even smaller groups to organise action on a very local level. By the end of the night, 20 phonebanking sessions had been planned at a branch level over the following week. 

In the past, organising inside the Labour Party was seen as a slightly cloak and dagger affair. When the Labour Party bureaucracy expelled leftwing activists in past decades, many on went further underground, organising in semi-secrecy. Now, Momentum is doing the exact opposite. 

The emphasis of the Corbyn campaign is on making its strategy, volunteer hubs and events listings as open and accessible as possible. Interactive maps will allow local activists to advertise hundreds of events, and then contact people in their area. When they gather to phonebank in they will be using a custom-built web app which will enable tens of thousands of callers to ring hundreds of thousands of numbers, from wherever they are.

As Momentum has learned to its cost, there is a trade-off between a campaign’s openness and its ability to stage manage events. But in the new politics of the Labour party, in which both the numbers of interested people and the capacity to connect with them directly are increasing exponentially, there is simply no contest. In order to win the next general election, Labour will have to master these tactics on a much bigger scale. The leadership election is the road test. 

Even many moderates seem to accept that the days of simply triangulating towards the centre and getting cozy with the Murdoch press are over. Labour needs to reach people and communities directly with an ambitious digital strategy and an army of self-organising activists. It is this kind of mass politics that delivered a "no" vote in Greece’s referendum on the terms of the Eurozone bailout last summer – defying pretty much the whole of the media, business and political establishment. 

The problem for Corbyn's challenger, Owen Smith, is that many of his backers have an open problem with this type of mass politics. Rather than investigate allegations of abuse, they have supported the suspension of CLPs. Rather than seeing the heightened emotions that come with mass mobilisations as side-effects which needs to be controlled, they have sought to joins unconnected acts of harassment, in order to smear Jeremy Corbyn. The MP Ben Bradshaw has even seemed to accuse Momentum of organising a conspiracy to physically attack Labour MPs.

The real conspiracy is much bigger than that. Hundreds of thousands of people are arriving, enthusiastic and determined, into the Labour party. These people, and their ability to convince the communities of which they are a part, threaten Britain’s political equilibrium, both the Conservatives and the Labour establishment. When the greatest hope for Labour becomes your greatest nightmare, you have good call to feel alarmed.