Clegg's head remains the price of a Labour-Lib Dem coalition

Miliband confirms that he wouldn't form a coalition with Clegg. But could he work with Cable?

Nick Clegg's declaration this weekend that he would be prepared to form a coalition with Labour after the next election was significant because it was at odds with much of what he's previously said on the subject. In a speech in May 2011, for instance, Clegg rebuked those in party, most notably Vince Cable and Chris Huhne, who talk up the possibility of a future alliance with Labour. He said:

There are still those who dream of a so-called ‘progressive alliance’, forgetting that Labour had 13 years to make some moves in that direction and never quite seemed to get around to it until, in desperation, they tried to cling to power last year.

But asked by the People if he could do business with Ed Miliband, Clegg replied: "Yes. If the British people said that the only combination which could work would be those two parties, in the same way as after the last election the only combination which could work was Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, it would be obvious that Liberal Democrats would need to do their duty."

Invited to return the compliment, Miliband, however, has declined. It was in an interview with the New Statesman in August 2010 that the Labour leader first indicated that Clegg's resignation would be a precondition of any deal with the Lib Dems, and nothing since has changed his mind. He told today's Independent that he would find it "difficult to work with" Clegg, an "accomplice" to the Tories. Though his language is more ambiguous than on other occasions, the message remains that Clegg's head is the price of any deal.

Since there is a good chance the next election will result in another hung parliament, Clegg and Miliband's comments are more significant than they may appear.  It is worth noting, for instance, that Miliband has never ruled out working with Vince Cable, who openly displayed his leadership ambitions this weekend. Ed Balls has gone further, declaring that he "could serve in a Cabinet with Chris Huhne or Vince Cable tomorrow". Should Cable lead the Lib Dems into the next election (with Clegg perhaps returning to Brussels to serve as the UK's EU commissioner), it would significantly increase Ed Miliband's chances of becoming prime minister.

Ed Miliband said he would find it "difficult to work with" Nick Clegg. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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