"Secret polls" show New Democracy leading in Greece

Market surges amid rumours of Syriza loss.

Polling in Greece is banned in the two weeks leading up to an election, so we have very little information as to what the likely outcome of the 17 June vote will be. It will definitely be New Democracy, the conservative party, and Syriza, the radical left, in the top two places; and the margin is unlkely to be more than 3 per cent either way. But beyond that, everything is very up in the air.

Business Insider's Joe Weisenthal, however, points out that the Greek stock market has surged today:

He says:

According to Greek stock market participants, there are "secret polls" that show the pro-bailout New Democracy party is leading and likely to win this Sunday's election. Technically, polling is banned for the two weeks prior to the election, but the parties and so forth are still keeping tabs on the mood of the electorate, and these polls can get out. 

Furthermore, Greek betting sites have shown also a spike in bets placed on New Democracy, and this too is seen as evidence of a shift. So traders like the stability of the pro-bailout, conservative New Democracy party over the chaos of the left-wing Syriza party, and thus at least right now are speculating that the status quo wll remain.

All of this is to be taken with the biggest grain of salt possible, of course. It's an inference from an inference – no one is on the record as having actually seen these polls and it's all too easy for a rumour like this to become self-sustaining. But the market is hungry for information from Greece, and any will do.

A Greek worker adjusts flags before a speech by the leader of Pasok, the party in third place. Credit: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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Piers Morgan struggles with the idea that anyone might ever refuse an opportunity to go on television

The Good Morning Britain host has contradictory beef with Ewan McGregor.

Has it been a while since you heard what Piers Morgan thinks? Are you shaking from withdrawal, refreshing your Twitter feed, unsure whether Kanye is or isn’t a narcissist? Well, fear not, the Mole has a fresh fix for you. After Ewan McGregor dropped out of appearing on Good Morning Britain today, a new take was born. Actors’ opinions are stupid, but also, actors should come on Piers Morgan's show and talk about their not-important views.

McGregor, who was meant to be promoting Trainspotting T2 on the show, tweeted this morning he had cancelled because of Piers’ (obviously half-baked) opinions on the Women’s March. “Was going on Good Morning Britain, didn't realise @piersmorgan was host,” McGregor wrote. “Won't go on with him after his comments about #WomensMarch.”

What truthbomb had Piers dropped to provoke this? That it was unfair women were protesting and where was the MEN'S march. A march for men! As if running our parliament, corporate system, legal industry and creative sector isn’t enough! They should probably all do a walk too! Poor men. No wonder the patriarchy is on its last legs. They must be so weary.

Still, hats off to Piers Morgan. It takes a real personal flexibility to maintain the title of Contrarian Extraordinaire of the Our Glorious Nation. By which we mean that Piers Morgan will think literally anything, if the money is right. Whether it’s writing that Kim Kardashian is so awful she caused someone to have a stroke, or that he loves her for being herself, the man is so darn unpredictable. 

Morgan accused McGregor of being "just an actor", and that he should be “big enough to allow people different political opinions”. Once again, he asked the age-old question: are you an enemy of free speech if you won't go on someone’s early morning television show? This might be alien to Piers, but people don't have to go on television if they don't want to. 

And what if Ewan had appeared on the show chatting about his film? “Happy to appear on my show for your film, but not happy with my opinions? Classic money-driven actor,” the inevitable Morgan tweet would have read. It's quite easy, this Piers Morgan lark. No, it isn't. Yes it is. Cheque please! 

I'm a mole, innit.