The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Labour opens up 47% poll lead

Among 18 to 24-year-olds ...

By George Eaton Published 15 June 2012 11:14

Labour Party leader Ed Miliband. Photograph: Getty Images.

Labour Party leader Ed Miliband: a hit with the young. Photograph: Getty Images.

If you raise tuition fees to £9,000 and allow youth unemployment to pass a million, don't be surprised if young voters desert you.

The latest YouGov poll gives Labour a 47-point lead among 18 to 24-year-olds (NB: 15 per cent "would note vote" and 22 per cent "don't know") . The sample size is just 71, so the margin of error is large, but it's still a striking finding.

While Ed Miliband's party enjoys the support of 58 per cent of the young, the Tories and the Lib Dems are on just 11 per cent each. Were anyone above the age of 24 barred from voting, here's how the result of the next election would look.

Labour: 614 seats

Liberal Democrats: 15 seats

Conservatives: 1 seat

Others: 20 seats

Labour majority: 578 seats

Hat-tip: Mike Smithson.

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Tags: Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats

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26 comments

Thu, 2012-07-05 03:49 — ahmadnasr89

صور رمضان 2012
تحميل صور رمضان 2012
صور رمضانية 2012
نتيجة الثانوية العامة 2012

Sun, 2012-06-24 18:21 — afrikano (not verified)

new

Mon, 2012-06-18 16:36 — CG (not verified)

This doesn't tell us much as:
- A sample size of 71 gives a huge margin of error
- The under-25s are the people least likely to vote in any case (not just due to apathy but they are more likely to move house, live in temporary accommodation or be out of the country due to travelling etc during an election).

Mon, 2012-06-18 10:51 — test-test (not verified)

Oh look, a bunch of selfish narcissist Student Grants who think money should grow on trees and be given to them in return for sod all, back the opportunistic party of pie-in-the-sky.

Knock me down with a feather.

Sat, 2012-06-16 10:05 — Wakeuploonylefties (not verified)

Ha ha the New Statesman is funny. Let's all hope the labour party get in and fix all the problems the Tories have caused oh wait the labour party caused them screwing up the country for the previous 17 years. The coalition are continuing the dismantling of our country started by Thatcher in 1979 with her corporatist party and the same party has governed us ever since. As far as I can see the only thing the Tories have done that labour wouldn't have done is lower the top tax rate.
The reason Britain is still sailing back to the Victorian age is because you would rather vote for a party that sold out when Tony Blair took ownership than think for yourselves. Yes I hope goofy gets to power next election so he can continue the good work of the coalition.

Sat, 2012-06-16 10:04 — Wakeuploonylefties (not verified)

Fri, 2012-06-15 23:50 — Agent (not verified)

So what should the NS do then George. Obviously get aggressively into encouraging young people vote . I imagine twitter and other such nonsense I have no interest in would be useful in this, maybe try to make political awareness more trendy and drag it out of the realms of radicalism. Sounds easy I know.

Fri, 2012-06-15 20:02 — rain (not verified)

We are all born radical then we grow up...

Fri, 2012-06-15 19:09 — Mr. Chris (not verified)

*few 2010 voters have been convinced....

Fri, 2012-06-15 19:08 — Mr. Chris (not verified)

Something I think is really interesting about those results is that more 2010 Lib Dem voters would vote labour than Lib Dem.

Labour's gains are coming mainly from Lib Dems while the Tory vote is generally either holding up or going to UKIP. So maybe from that you can draw that few voters who voted for the Tories in 2010 are yet to be convinced that austerity has failed - and it may be that the high disapproval ratings for the Gov from 2010 Tory voters are due to anger at Lib Dems standing in the way of a 'purer' Con Gov.

Fri, 2012-06-15 19:01 — judith birkenhead (not verified)

Perhaps what the young see clearest of all in Milliband is some integrity and a willingnes to change the status quo. What has the current government done to raise young people's hopes of a positive future ahead; not a lot if you don't attend public schools. What respect can young people have for a a government that only looks after its own and its own class interests. The Leveson inquiry revealed how the other half in government really live, outside of ordinary peoples reality.

Tue, 2012-06-19 12:09 — Jamie G. (not verified)

Really, Judith? What has Miliband done to make you think this? The guy doesn't have the courage of his convictions, let alone integrity - for example, he can't even seem to decide whether his party remains in bed with the unions (in which case his party is seen to endorse disruptive strike action) or to make a clean break with the unions (in which case the unions desert him and 90% of his party's funding is shot to pieces), so in short he is well and truly stuffed and the Tories' single biggest vote booster come next election.

I've worked hard my whole life and won a place at a grammar school during the time Blair and co. were in power. It might surprise you to know that they tried to close my school down on the basis that selecting pupils for entry at 11+ was unfair, but you don't want to get me into a different argument on that. Suffice it to say you will face competition in most aspects of your adult life, like applying for a job that 300 other people want. If some people can't face up to that cold truth, it's not my problem!

I really think it is time Lefties such as yourself rethink your political stance in terms of the actual issues rather than talk about 'class', I mean we're not in the 1970s anymore.

Fri, 2012-06-15 18:06 — Leekliberal (not verified)

Sadly for Labour the young generally don't bother to vote!

Sat, 2012-06-16 22:16 — Mary Jackson (not verified)

Sadly for Labour the young don't bother to vote@ OH I think they will this time

Fri, 2012-06-15 14:42 — Barrie J (not verified)

Imagine how popular New Labour would be if core Labour voters hadn't just lived through 13 years of Blair and Brown.
Whilst I would do just about anything to get rid of the bun throwing monkeys currently destroying GB, I'm not sure it will extend to casting a vote in Eds' favour.
Fat chance I have here in North Bucks anyway, since, having the Speaker as the incumbent, few will stand against him - no democracy here then?

Fri, 2012-06-15 13:19 — Vince Justin Marce (not verified)

I think that you will find that these so called politicians in Downing Street are suffocating on their lies & deceit.

You can fool the people some of the time but you cannot fool them all of the time.

This Tory Led Coalition looks more like a mafia organisation than a civilized government because of it's never ending continuous cycle of scandals and wrong doing. What BIG story will come out in the open next week !

Fri, 2012-06-15 13:14 — Arianrhod (not verified)

Most 18-24 year-olds who vote are students at top universities, many of them from privileged backgrounds. The enormous elephant in the room is the huge number of "politically apathetic" (i.e. disgusted) 18-24s who work low-paid jobs in the service industry to bring home the rent. They're equally disdainful of the tories (whom they perceive to enrich themselves through politics) and labour (whom they perceive to have abandoned them while handing out meal tickets - at their expense - to the feral snots in their own age group).

Fri, 2012-06-15 12:57 — Rousseau (not verified)

Students will vote Labour!?!? Well, I never!

Fri, 2012-06-15 16:32 — Robert Taggart

Since when were 'stue-dents' the brains of Britain ?!

Fri, 2012-06-15 12:49 — www.barometerbisnis.com (not verified)

it's just crap [...]Read More

Fri, 2012-06-15 12:11 — Tesco Shelf Stacker (not verified)

Amazes me that people out there think that after recently ending a thirteen year spell of ruinous Labour government - the solution to a ruinous Tory-led coalition is ... more ruinous Labour.

What a choice!

Fri, 2012-06-15 12:40 — Steve AM (not verified)

Would Labour be ruinous though. It all depends on what they want to do and if they have the guts to be radical to change the way we are economically governed just like Thatcher was radical after the breakdown of the previous economic order.

Fri, 2012-06-15 16:30 — Robert Taggart

All four Liebore governments which Blighty has suffered have been ruinous...
Atlee. Had to send the begging bowl to the US Congress.
Wilson 1. Lost in '70 just after terrible trade statistics came to light.
Wilson / Callaghan. Sent D. Healey to the IMF - cap in hand.
Bliar / Broon. Left Blighty in 'the broon stuff' !