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Labour's somewhat hollow triumph

Successes built on low turnout are castles made of sand.

New Statesman
Glasgow, the fightback in Scotland starts here. Photograph: Getty Images.

Thursday was a great day for Labour activists across the country, bringing about results which meant one of the most enjoyable election nights in years. Within moments of the polls closing, the Tories very own in-house omnishambles, Sayeeda Warsi, was dispatched to TV studios to tell the nation that Labour needed 700 council gains to be able to call the night a success. Later she tried to increase the number to 1000 - a figure that was nigh on impossible to achieve. 

That early attempt to move the goalposts was telling. Few Labour people seriously thought that 700 gains was achievable, but the Tories evidently did once they saw their vote collapsing on election day. In areas where Labour needs to win in 2015 (Thurrock, Norwich, Harlow, Basildon, Reading, Southampton, Plymouth) the results were overwhelmingly positive. But the gains weren't just confined to the south - in the north west, Labour took Wirral, and wrestled Sefton from No Overall Control for the first time since 1986. In Sheffield, Leeds and Wakefield (to name just a few) huge chunks of the available seats fell to Labour.

And then Glasgow. We were never meant to win. Privately some senior Labour people had begun to concede it more than a week before election day, with the SNP tidal wave engulfing another Labour stronghold. But this time it was the final one. If Glasgow went SNP, the independence drumbeat would have intensified. As it is, Labour has shown that it can beat the SNP, with organisation, fresh candidates and an acknowledgement that the party has changed. Their result was remarkable - to paraphrase a much mocked Ed Miliband speech - the fightback in Scotland starts here.

And I still haven't even mentioned Labour's fantastic results in Wales, picking up Cardiff to strengthen the party's Cymru hegemony.

So Labour retained Scotland's biggest city and won the Welsh capital, but the same can't be said in England, where of course Labour lost the London Mayoral election. I've discussed why I think Ken lost already, but even here a certain defeat that the polls thought would be huge turned into a late night semi-squeaker for the Tories - with some on team Boris seemingly thinking that Boris had lost. That was a testament to the campaign's focus on the ground game, and the determination of Labour activists - both repaid by the election of 12 London Assembly members, and the ousting of Tories like the odious Brian Coleman.

But what cost Livingstone the election - at least numerically, rather than politically - was turnout, and the positive election results throughout the country don't mask the sapping effect that low turnout has on our democracy. Politically, neither party has yet been able to sufficiently enthuse the electorate enough to get past the "you're all the same" factor. Yet Ed Miliband appeared to realise the potency of this existential threat to party politics, when even after such strong results he talked of those who didn't vote at all.

The other side of the low turnout coin is cultural and organisational. As Karin Christiansen rightly pointed out on Friday, "Low turn-out is a problem in general. Both we and the Tories are stuck in low turn-out election strategies, with a race to the bottom: whose vote gets suppressed least wins." Does that sound like the kind of politics you want to be involved with? I know I certainly don't. But that kind of culture pervades all parties now - and is the context in which backlashes like Bradford West should be viewed. 

Recently a party member in a traditionally safe Labour area told me their local organiser "loved low turnout elections" and that the same organiser had told them Labour's aim in elections was "to discourage and demoralise our opponents' supporters from turning out while reminding enough of our voters to do so." It's a style of politics that seeks to drive up apathy. 

Is it any wonder that one of the most commonly heard replies on the doorstep is "you're all the same"?

Getting past that apathy is the real challenge for Labour and Miliband - putting down roots in areas that make Labour support more secure and long term, precisely because the party is in touch with the electorate, campaigning with them rather than just at them, and speaking to them on their terms. Only by making such a shift in the way the party campaigns can Labour stop the race to the bottom and help restore the nations's faith in politics and the ability of the left to change the country.

The alternative is more potentially hollow victories like this week. They may augur well for the future - but just as plausibly the success may be fleeting. Successes built on low turnout are castles made of sand - and unless we act soon, the rising tide of public discontent will wash us all away.

Mark Ferguson is the editor of Labour List.

11 comments

hugh markey's picture

Back to the drawing board yet again. Captain Ed Milliband was supposed to steer the Labour Titanic liner into an electoral iceberg and then his ship would go down with all hands.
So, Ken Livingston saw his political career sink into Davy Jone's locker but Boris is now on the bridge of a capital ship straight out of Navy Lark. [ Right hand down a bit ]
He is captain of a model ship which if it charts a Tory course may bring him on the rocks
Of course Boris has a First Mate, A Second Mate, and so - on ad infinitum. His mind is concentrated on his next landfall, the PM's job and the Houses of Parliament are just on the river front. Full steam ahead!

Commodore Boris

duck soup's picture

The SNP got more 1st preference votes,more seats and made more gains than Labour.And all achieved after 5 years in office at Holyrood during a world recession.Some Labour fightback! As for Glasgow,Labour retained it on a small majority,reduced from 2007.We have to wonder though if they would have got a majority had the BBC not swept the bullying and corruption reports under the carpet.

What can Labour fightback with in Scotland anyway? Promising the neo-liberal economic policies the party has to espouse to be electable in middle England? Retention of Trident and more nuclear power stations which Labour has to espouse to be electable in middle England? All policies which repel most people in Scotland.Which is why the anti-Trident, pro Scandinavian social model and pro green energy SNP has a majority at Holyrood and Labour doesn't.

Ivan M. White's picture

Hope all you like, Mr Taggart, but there hasn’t been a governing party which has increased its percentage of the vote in the next election since 1974, and there hasn’t been an outright Tory victory for 20 years. If you really think this corrupt shower of arrogant upper class misfits has a snowflake’s chance in hell of winning the next election outright, dream on.

Still, congratulations are in order to you for managing to know the years in which the Tories conned the voters in elections since the last war. Sadly, you then seek to perpetuate the standard lie which the Tories hope will gain them votes because they have nothing credible to offer the electorate, most of whom they hate, especially the sick, the disabled, the poor, the old, the unemployed and all public sector workers. So all they can do is take a leaf out of Josef Goebbels’ book, tell a big lie, keep repeating it and hope that people will eventually believe it. Not the only similarity between the Tories and the Nazis these days either.
http://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t322-are-the-tories-velvet-glove-fa...

The Tories peddle the lie that every Labour government leaves behind a financial mess. It wasn’t true in 1951, not true in 1970, not true in 1979, and only true in 2010 because Brown had no alternative but to bail out the bankers when global capitalism proved itself to be a failure. What the Tories don’t tell you is that they needed an IMF loan in 1956, they left behind a balance of payments deficit in 1964, they gave us double-digit inflation in 1974 and then left a debt equivalent to 43.76% of GDP in 1997. They don’t tell you that Thatcher left office in 1990 with inflation higher than when she came in, or that the Tories left office in 1997 with unemployment higher than when they came to power on the strength of those ‘Labour isn’t working’ posters in 1979. (They also don’t remind you that crime doubled in those 18 years.)

The longest uninterrupted period of growth in the UK economy in the last 200 years occurred when Gordon Brown was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Tories supported Labour’s spending plans until the global credit crunch occurred, and the Tories supported the bailout of their banking cronies. Tell all the lies you like, sir, but those are the facts.

RosieS's picture

Fantastic post Ivan White to see more Tory lies exposed go on twitter and use hashtag #exposetorylies and get the truth from real people!

cakea's picture

I couldn't agree more with this post. I'm only surprised that Miliband, Balls et al have not been equally forthright in defending the last government's record. It's perfectly reasonable for the Prime Minister to ask Labour what they would do in his shoes but a more pertinent question might be, what would he have done in theirs?

To hear coalition ministers speak, one would imagine that this country had never had a budget deficit until 1997, whereas in fact, surpluses have been far less common. (The only surplus this country has had in the last 20 years was during Blair's first term.) Furthermore, the UK's deficit prior to the global financial crisis (which few economists predicted, which no politicians could have avoided and which could hardly be blamed on one government's fiscal policy) was lower than it had been in the mid-1990s.

Even if the books had been balanced in 2007, borrowing would still have had to increase by over £100 billion to meet the cost of rescuing the economy from oblivion. Yet far from saying at the time that the deficit was too high, or that public spending was out of control, the only thing that the Tories pledged to cut was... inheritance tax.

It is at best simplistic and at worst disingenuous to suggest that macroeconomic policy should be determined as if the Exchequer were a piggy bank, but at least if Cameron or Osborne had been trotting out their tiresome 'credit card' analogy five years ago, they could command some respect for being consistent. As it is, they are merely opportunistic hypocrites who couldn't even win a majority at the last election, let alone the next one.

martybee's picture

38% on a low turnout is not to be sneezed at...it is progress, enough to show that Labour has turned around but not enough to show that they are 'there', far from it.

There is still a mountain to climb. We have to bear in mind that what we have is basically a minority government that is propped up by a ( now doomed) Lib Dem Party who will be nothing more than a rump after the next election.

The signs are encouraging, but, I have had the feeling for a long time that the next election will be fought with 3 new party leaders in place

Tesco Shelf Stacker's picture

The dangers of less and less people showing up at the polling stations is very real and needs to be addressed urgently. If not the danger is we end up with an electorial system open to abuse by a few well organised special interest groups - including crackpots on the political fringe.

One simple yet glaring weakness in our electoral system that could be easily addressed is the days we choose to hold elections on. Changing election-days to non-working days (ie Sundays) will surely increase voter turnout - if not a Sunday then any other non-working day of the year - elections on working days will always result in a low turnout.

People simply aren’t bothering to show up at the polls for whatever reason and there is a real danger of becoming a nation governed by the few - for the few.
Voter apathy, voter indifference ... call it what you like - this is slowly killing any legitimacy of our political system.

peter mccreadie's picture

labour did't win in glasgow. they retained.

Fat Bloke on Tour's picture

PMcC

Tell that to the Herald, sorry Nat News.
Tell that to Wee Eck who had his victory speech written.
Tell that to Tartan Tory cheerleaders in Scotland's establishment.

You know that a reelection squabble had turned Labout into a minority administration.
You know that the headlines this year talked of a "Labour meltdown.
You know that Wee Eck had his heart set on winning.

Unfortunately reality got in the way of all the rhetoric and the received wisdom of the media analysts, it got in the way of Wee Eck's natural role in life - that of being a rich mans toy - and it got in the way of the forced current political narrative. Labour needs to move up a gear but it has made its first moves away from last years stagnation. Politics have changed, the Tories are moving over to the Tartan strand as has been their want for 20 years but the collapse of the Lib Dems means that the old rules do not apply.

Robert Taggart's picture

Hoping a blue tide will wash away this wash-out wastrel in three years time !
Not because one supports the blue half - nope, but, because the red half messed-up last time, oh, and the time before that (79) and before that (70) not to mention before that (51) !

Mr Bumpkin's picture

One is telling porkies

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