Afghanistan is a mess. Pakistan remains a perpetual headache. The Obama Administration’s AfPak strategy is not working. It is time for a fresh approach.
The starting point must be a hard-headed assessment of what kind of Afghanistan can be left behind when NATO forces leave in 2014. The aim should be to prevent a descent into an all out civil war. The foundations for a stable regime should be established where all key players feel they have a stake in the future of the country.
US strategy should be re-focused upon five strands.
First, however much one detests the Taliban and what it stands for, it is clear that its confidence is growing. The start of its Spring Offensive on April 15 - which saw the targeting of foreign embassies and government institutions - underlined the severity of the situation. The long-term risk of not directly involving those elements of the Taliban willing to cease hostilities in discussions about power-sharing post-2014 is much greater than the short-term fallout a US President might suffer from doing so. This is also an issue where the strategic interests of both the US and Pakistan coincide, and where the latter could prove useful in seeking a compromise.
The Taliban comprehends the reality of its own position. After 35 years of fighting, it is itself exhausted and appreciates that marching on Kabul post-NATO withdrawal is not realistic given the increasing strength of the Afghan army. It also realises that all foreign aid would be immediately cut off leaving it facing a disgruntled electorate and millions of mouths to feed.
But the longer the US shuns a political solution in favour of a futile military pummelling of the enemy, the weaker its negotiating position will become.
Second, a regional track to diplomacy on Afghanistan must be established, involving all countries with strategic interests in the country. Pakistan has for decades sought pliable government in Kabul to offer “strategic depth” against India for fear of “encirclement”. But the recent visit to India by Asif Ali Zardari, the first by a Pakistani president since 2005, to promote bilateral trade – currently a paltry $3bn - is an encouraging sign of a potential rapprochement between the two neighbours.
The Russians, Iranians and Arab states also have a stake. A multilateral diplomatic initiative needs to begin imminently and be led by a credible third party with no historical Kalashnikov to grind.
Third, the extent of the use of drone attacks should be considered. There is no doubt that they have brought success in dispensing with a number of unsavoury characters in North Waziristan, the base of the Haqqani Network of insurgents. However, when innocent civilians are killed, this simply acts as a recruiting sergeant for family members to take up arms against the US to avenge the death of their relations. Honour and revenge in blood are hallmarks of the Pashtun tribal code. Such attacks should be used sparingly and judiciously.
Fourth, as a Pew research study conducted last year revealed, only 1 per cent of Pakistanis had a positive image of the US - despite $600m in aid being provided after the floods in 2010. Of the $20bn the US has given since 2001, over 70 per cent has been taken by the country’s military. The US must instead focus its aid efforts in both Afghanistan and Pakistan on the development of infrastructure and the provision of microfinance to small businesses starved of credit. The biggest problem being faced by ordinary Pakistanis is the shortage of gas, and living for up to 18-hours a day without power. More than 60 per cent of the population is under-25 and only 50 per cent are literate. Central to solving the security conundrum is helping Pakistan back to a path of economic growth and job creation.
Fifth, with an eye on the Pakistan Parliamentary elections to be held early next year, the US must recognise that the political balance of power within the country may well shift. The frustrated youth and urban educated elites of Pakistan have been captivated by the anti-corruption message of former cricketing legend turned politician, Imran Khan. His rallies in Lahore and Karachi have attracted hundreds of thousands of ordinary Pakistanis. A growing number are yearning for positive change. They want an end to Berelvi (Sufi) shrines being bombed by radical Deobandi fanatics, economic prosperity, and their nation to be raised from the status of an international pariah state. The US cannot afford to be caught out as it was, for a time, by the seismic events that took place across the Middle East last year.
Laying the foundations for a stable Afghanistan by 2014 with Pakistan’s assistance is still achievable. But it will require personal risk on the part of the President, whatever his political persuasion. This is no time to be pusillanimous. The situation demands a leader with the dexterity to strike a deal combined with a strategic vision for the region. There might then still be one throw of the dice left in the Great Game.
Ali Miraj was a member of the Conservative Party Commission on International and National Security 2005-2007