Will Tory MPs defect to Ukip?

Tim Montgomerie reports that two Tory MPs are "seriously considering" defecting.

Tim Montgomerie's column in today's Times (£) contains the revelation that two Conservative MPs are "seriously considering" defecting to Ukip. The well-connected Montgomerie, who I recently profiled for the New Statesman, writes:

I know of two Conservative MPs seriously considering following the path already trodden by Roger Helmer, MEP, and other Tory activists.

David Cameron's failure to deliver on his promise to "repatriate powers" from Brussels and Ukip's recent surge in the polls [YouGov has had them as high as eight per cent] has made Nigel Farage's party more attractive to Tory rebels. It's a worrying development for Conservative strategists who haven't forgotten that Ukip cost the Tories up to 21 seats at the last election [there were 21 constituencies in which the Ukip vote exceeded the Labour majority]. The party also has the potential to win support for its opposition to gay marriage [which Cameron is committed to introducing], the sort of issue that might prompt some Tory members to tear up their party cards.

The first, and so far only, Conservative MP to defect to Ukip was Bob Spink, who joined the party in March 2008 [although he was redesignated as an independent in November 2008]. The danger for Cameron is that another defection would see Ukip emerge as a credible voice of right-wing discontent.

 

UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Jeremy Corbyn's Labour conference speech shows how he's grown

The leader's confident address will have impressed even his fiercest foes. 

It is not just Jeremy Corbyn’s mandate that has been improved by his re-election. The Labour leader’s conference speech was, by some distance, the best he has delivered. He spoke with far greater confidence, clarity and energy than previously. From its self-deprecating opening onwards ("Virgin Trains assure me there are 800 empty seats") we saw a leader improved in almost every respect. 

Even Corbyn’s firecest foes will have found less to take issue with than they may have anticipated. He avoided picking a fight on Trident (unlike last year), delivered his most forceful condemnation of anti-Semitism (“an evil”) and, with the exception of the Iraq war, avoided attacks on New Labour’s record. The video which preceded his arrival, and highlighted achievements from the Blair-Brown years, was another olive branch. But deselection, which Corbyn again refused to denounce, will remain a running sore (MPs alleged that Hillsborough campaigner Sheila Coleman, who introduced Corbyn, is seeking to deselect Louise Ellman and backed the rival TUSC last May).

Corbyn is frequently charged with lacking policies. But his lengthy address contained several new ones: the removal of the cap on council borrowing (allowing an extra 60,000 houses to be built), a ban on arms sales to abusive regimes and an arts pupil premium in every primary school.

On policy, Corbyn frequently resembles Ed Miliband in his more radical moments, unrestrained by Ed Balls and other shadow cabinet members. He promised £500bn of infrastructure investment (spread over a decade with £150bn from the private sector), “a real living wage”, the renationalisation of the railways, rent controls and a ban on zero-hours contracts.

Labour’s greatest divisions are not over policy but rules, strategy and culture. Corbyn’s opponents will charge him with doing far too little to appeal to the unconverted - Conservative voters most of all. But he spoke with greater conviction than before of preparing for a general election (acknowledging that Labour faced an arithmetical “mountain”) and successfully delivered the attack lines he has often shunned.

“Even Theresa May gets it, that people want change,” he said. “That’s why she stood on the steps of Downing Street and talked about the inequalities and burning injustices in today’s Britain. She promised a country: ‘that works not for a privileged few but for every one of us’. But even if she manages to talk the talk, she can’t walk the walk. This isn’t a new government, it’s David Cameron’s government repackaged with progressive slogans but with a new harsh right-wing edge, taking the country backwards and dithering before the historic challenges of Brexit.”

After a second landslide victory, Corbyn is, for now, unassailable. Many MPs, having voted no confidence in him, will never serve on the frontbench. But an increasing number, recognising Corbyn’s immovability, speak once again of seeking to “make it work”. For all the ructions of this summer, Corbyn’s speech will have helped to persuade them that they can.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.