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Will Tory MPs defect to Ukip?

Tim Montgomerie reports that two Tory MPs are "seriously considering" defecting.

Ukip leader Nigel Farage.
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage. Photograph: Getty Images.

Tim Montgomerie's column in today's Times (£) contains the revelation that two Conservative MPs are "seriously considering" defecting to Ukip. The well-connected Montgomerie, who I recently profiled for the New Statesman, writes:

I know of two Conservative MPs seriously considering following the path already trodden by Roger Helmer, MEP, and other Tory activists.

David Cameron's failure to deliver on his promise to "repatriate powers" from Brussels and Ukip's recent surge in the polls [YouGov has had them as high as eight per cent] has made Nigel Farage's party more attractive to Tory rebels. It's a worrying development for Conservative strategists who haven't forgotten that Ukip cost the Tories up to 21 seats at the last election [there were 21 constituencies in which the Ukip vote exceeded the Labour majority]. The party also has the potential to win support for its opposition to gay marriage [which Cameron is committed to introducing], the sort of issue that might prompt some Tory members to tear up their party cards.

The first, and so far only, Conservative MP to defect to Ukip was Bob Spink, who joined the party in March 2008 [although he was redesignated as an independent in November 2008]. The danger for Cameron is that another defection would see Ukip emerge as a credible voice of right-wing discontent.