French presidential election: runners and riders

Your guide to the candidates in today's French election.

Ahead of the first round of the French presidential election this Sunday, here's a Staggers guide to the five main candidates.

How does the election work?

The presidential election is held over two rounds. The first round [22 April] is open to any candidate who has the written support of at least 500 local elected officials. Assuming that no one wins an absolute majority of votes, a run-off [6 May] is held between the top two candidates.

The winner then becomes president for the enusing term of office, which was reduced from seven years to five years following a 2000 referendum. Since the constitutional law of 23 July 2008, a president cannot serve more than two consecutive terms. François Mitterand and Jacques Chirac are the only Fifth Republic presidents who have served full two terms [14 years for the former, 12 years for the latter].

Nicolas Sarkozy (Union for a Popular Movement)

The man who entered office as the most popular president since Charles de Gaulle is now the most unpopular in the history of the Fifth Republic. Sarkozy’s extravagant personal life [he acquired the nickname “President Bling Bling” during his first months in power] has antagonised the electorate, while persistently high unemployment and the loss of France’s triple-A credit rating have damaged his economic credibility.

In a desperate attempt to claw back support, the French president has run an unashamedly demagogic campaign, pledging to halve immigration [he has said there are “too many foreigners” in the country] and to limit state benefits for legal migrants. Following National Front candidate Marine Le Pen’s lead, he has also exploited fears of growing Muslim influence, vowing to ban halal meat from state-school canteens.

To date, this strategy has met with some success. Polls now put Sarkozy neck-and-neck with  François Hollande in the first round, although the Socialist candidate retains a comfortable lead in a hypothetical run-off. The French president has portrayed his opponent as an irresponsible spendthrift, warning of a bond market revolt if Hollande is elected. Sarkozy, who recently hailed better-than-expected borrowing figures, has pledged to eliminate France’s 5.2 per cent budget deficit by 2016 through  €75 billion of spending cuts and  €40 billion of tax increases.

François Hollande (Socialist Party)

Tipped to become the first Socialist to enter the Élysée Palace since François Mitterand won re-election in 1988, Hollande has vowed to be “a normal president” in contrast to the exuberant Sarkozy. Traditionally viewed as a moderate social democrat, he has tacked to the left in response to a surge in support for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Hollande has pledged to introduce a new top tax rate of 75 per cent on earnings above one million euros a year, to create 60,000 new education jobs and to reintroduce retirement at 60 for those who have worked at least 41 years. But he has also vowed to eliminate France’s budget deficit by 2017 and has promised to avoid any immediate nationalisations.

In February, Hollande visited London [where 72,000 French expatriates are registered to vote], where he met Ed Miliband, though not David Cameron. The Labour leader said he had been “very, very encouraged” by “the leadership” Hollande had shown on the issue of financial regulation. “I hope the French election can be a force for change in Europe and that this change can also happen in Britain,” he added. Hollande also used the trip to reassure the City of London that he was not “dangerous”, despite his description of finance as his “greatest adversary”.

The Socialists have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory but the polls continue to suggest that Hollande will triumph over Sarkozy in the final round.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Left Front)

The former teacher and ex-Socialist minister has emerged as the most popular far-left candidate for decades, with polls putting him in third place. Mélenchon, who represents the Left Front, a coalition of several parties including the Communists, having abandoned the Socialist Party in 2008, has called for a “citizen’s revolution” against the ruling rich and the establishment of a Sixth Republic in which the president will have less power and the national assembly more.

His policies include a cap on incomes over €360,000 a year, a 20 per cent rise in the minimum wage, a ban on profitable companies laying off workers, withdrawal from Nato and a referendum on the EU treaty.

A charismatic orator with a gift for populist rhetoric, Mélenchon has described Hollande as being as useful as the “captain of a pedalo” in a storm. He has also launched a series of attacks on far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, calling her a "filthy beast spitting hatred", a "bat" and a "dark presence".

Hollande has refused to negotiate on policy with the Left Front but should the party perform well in the legislative elections in June, he could be forced to offer Mélenchon a place in government.

Marine Le Pen (National Front)

The daughter of National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen has attempted to shed the party’s racist image, styling herself as a more modern figure than her father, who was recently convicted of contesting crimes against humanity for saying the Nazi occupation of France was not "particularly inhumane".

Le Pen’s campaign has focused on what she describes as the “Islamisation” of France and on the alleged threat posed by migrants. She has pledged to reduce immigration to 5 per cent of its current level and to create a new ministry of the interior, immigration and secularism. Le Pen has also vowed to withdraw France from the euro [she describes the EU as “A European Soviet Union”] and to adopt protectionist economic policies.

In January, Le Pen was neck-and-neck with Sarkozy in the polls but her ratings have fallen as the French president has adopted increasingly hardline stances on immigration, the EU and halal meat. As a result, she will almost certainly not repeat her father’s 2002 feat of winning a place in the run-off, although some fear a late surge in support from voters wary of publicly supporting her candidacy.

Francois Bayrou (Democratic Movement)

The eternal “third man” of French politics has made his traditional centrist pitch, appealing to those voters for whom Sarkozy is too conservative and Hollande too radical. Bayrou’s campaign has emphasised the need for fiscal discipline [he has promised to cut spending by €50bn and find €50bn in new revenue], for greater private sector job creation and for further European integration.

Although a devout Catholic, Bayoru takes a liberal stance on issues such as gay rights and abortion. He has described Sarkozy’s focus on the alleged dangers of Islam as “poisonous”.

Bayrou took the French establishment by surprise in 2007 when he finished third in the first round and won nearly a fifth of the vote. On this occasion, however, he has struggled to keep pace with Mélenchon and Le Pen. But should Sarkozy narrow Hollande’s lead in the second round, he could yet end up as kingmaker.

Latest poll

First Round

François Hollande 27%

Nicolas Sarkozy 26%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 17%

Marine Le Pen 15%

Francois Bayrou 11%

Second Round

François Hollande 57%

Nicolas Sarkozy 43%

Left Front candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon delivers a speech during a campaign meeting. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty Images/AFP
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Is Yvette Cooper surging?

The bookmakers and Westminster are in a flurry. Is Yvette Cooper going to win after all? I'm not convinced. 

Is Yvette Cooper surging? The bookmakers have cut her odds, making her the second favourite after Jeremy Corbyn, and Westminster – and Labour more generally – is abuzz with chatter that it will be her, not Corbyn, who becomes leader on September 12. Are they right? A couple of thoughts:

I wouldn’t trust the bookmakers’ odds as far as I could throw them

When Jeremy Corbyn first entered the race his odds were at 100 to 1. When he secured the endorsement of Unite, Britain’s trade union, his odds were tied with Liz Kendall, who nobody – not even her closest allies – now believes will win the Labour leadership. When I first tipped the Islington North MP for the top job, his odds were still at 3 to 1.

Remember bookmakers aren’t trying to predict the future, they’re trying to turn a profit. (As are experienced betters – when Cooper’s odds were long, it was good sense to chuck some money on there, just to secure a win-win scenario. I wouldn’t be surprised if Burnham’s odds improve a bit as some people hedge for a surprise win for the shadow health secretary, too.)

I still don’t think that there is a plausible path to victory for Yvette Cooper

There is a lively debate playing out – much of it in on The Staggers – about which one of Cooper or Burnham is best-placed to stop Corbyn. Team Cooper say that their data shows that their candidate is the one to stop Corbyn. Team Burnham, unsurprisingly, say the reverse. But Team Kendall, the mayoral campaigns, and the Corbyn team also believe that it is Burnham, not Cooper, who can stop Corbyn.

They think that the shadow health secretary is a “bad bank”: full of second preferences for Corbyn. One senior Blairite, who loathes Burnham with a passion, told me that “only Andy can stop Corbyn, it’s as simple as that”.

I haven’t seen a complete breakdown of every CLP nomination – but I have seen around 40, and they support that argument. Luke Akehurst, a cheerleader for Cooper, published figures that support the “bad bank” theory as well.   Both YouGov polls show a larger pool of Corbyn second preferences among Burnham’s votes than Cooper’s.

But it doesn’t matter, because Andy Burnham can’t make the final round anyway

The “bad bank” row, while souring relations between Burnhamettes and Cooperinos even further, is interesting but academic.  Either Jeremy Corbyn will win outright or he will face Cooper in the final round. If Liz Kendall is eliminated, her second preferences will go to Cooper by an overwhelming margin.

Yes, large numbers of Kendall-supporting MPs are throwing their weight behind Burnham. But Kendall’s supporters are overwhelmingly giving their second preferences to Cooper regardless. My estimate, from both looking at CLP nominations and speaking to party members, is that around 80 to 90 per cent of Kendall’s second preferences will go to Cooper. Burnham’s gaffes – his “when it’s time” remark about Labour having a woman leader, that he appears to have a clapometer instead of a moral compass – have discredited him in him the eyes of many. While Burnham has shrunk, Cooper has grown. And for others, who can’t distinguish between Burnham and Cooper, they’d prefer to have “a crap woman rather than another crap man” in the words of one.

This holds even for Kendall backers who believe that Burnham is a bad bank. A repeated refrain from her supporters is that they simply couldn’t bring themselves to give Burnham their 2nd preference over Cooper. One senior insider, who has been telling his friends that they have to opt for Burnham over Cooper, told me that “faced with my own paper, I can’t vote for that man”.

Interventions from past leaders fall on deaf ears

A lot has happened to change the Labour party in recent years, but one often neglected aspect is this: the Labour right has lost two elections on the bounce. Yes, Ed Miliband may have rejected most of New Labour’s legacy and approach, but he was still a protégé of Gordon Brown and included figures like Rachel Reeves, Ed Balls and Jim Murphy in his shadow cabinet.  Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham were senior figures during both defeats. And the same MPs who are now warning that Corbyn will doom the Labour Party to defeat were, just months ago, saying that Miliband was destined for Downing Street and only five years ago were saying that Gordon Brown was going to stay there.

Labour members don’t trust the press

A sizeable number of Labour party activists believe that the media is against them and will always have it in for them. They are not listening to articles about Jeremy Corbyn’s past associations or reading analyses of why Labour lost. Those big, gamechanging moments in the last month? Didn’t change anything.

100,000 people didn’t join the Labour party on deadline day to vote against Jeremy Corbyn

On the last day of registration, so many people tried to register to vote in the Labour leadership election that they broke the website. They weren’t doing so on the off-chance that the day after, Yvette Cooper would deliver the speech of her life. Yes, some of those sign-ups were duplicates, and 3,000 of them have been “purged”.  That still leaves an overwhelmingly large number of sign-ups who are going to go for Corbyn.

It doesn’t look as if anyone is turning off Corbyn

Yes, Sky News’ self-selecting poll is not representative of anything other than enthusiasm. But, equally, if Yvette Cooper is really going to beat Jeremy Corbyn, surely, surely, she wouldn’t be in third place behind Liz Kendall according to Sky’s post-debate poll. Surely she wouldn’t have been the winner according to just 6.1 per cent of viewers against Corbyn’s 80.7 per cent. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.