The great gerrymander: Mehdi Hasan on the Tories' attempt to undermine the system

Tories continue to find new and ingenious ways to rig the electoral system in their favour.

My column in this week's magazine attacks the Tories' "brazen attempt to gerrymander the electoral system" through rewriting the rules on voter registration and switching from compulsion to volition -- which could see up to ten million mostly Labour-leaning voters just fall off the electoral register. Almost all of our major political commentators and pundits have missed this story, preferring instead to focus on the Boundary Commission's recent review of constituency boundaries.

Those of us who have objected to the review, on the grounds that it is quite possible to remove the electoral system's existing bias towards Labour without reducing the overall number of Commons seats, have been accused of being partisan, cynical and prone to conspiracy-theorising. Yet, earlier this week, at a ConservativeHome reception at the Conservative party conference in Manchester, the Transport Secretary, Philip Hammond, had this to say:

With your help -- and a little help from the boundary review -- hopefully we will be back in 2015 with a Conservative majority government.

[Hat-tip: Total Politics and Amber Elliott]

From the horse's mouth, as they say. His aides, of course, say that he made the remarks in "jest" but the point is that they're true. The boundary review will disproportionately benefit the Conservatives -- and so, too, will the proposed change to the registration of voters on the electoral list and the subsequent lack of enforcement. It is, as I say in my column, "the biggest political scandal you've never heard of".

Mehdi Hasan is a contributing writer for the New Statesman and the co-author of Ed: The Milibands and the Making of a Labour Leader. He was the New Statesman's senior editor (politics) from 2009-12.

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Theresa May enjoys the honeymoon bounce Jeremy Corbyn can only dream of

It's back to October 2009 in the polls. 

Back in October 2009, The Telegraph reported that backbench MPs were planning a coup against their unpopular leader, Gordon Brown. 

The simmering discontent was attributed not to ideological angst but management, specifically the anger at Brown's insistence that MPs pay back their expenses.

Days earlier, The Sun had switched allegiance with a front page declaring: "Labour's Lost It."

That was the last time Labour's poll rating was as low as it is now, according to pollsters ICM. 

The latest poll surveyed voters between 22 and 24 July 2016. The findings are stark. Of those intending to vote, 43 per cent would choose Theresa May and the Tories, while just 27 per cent would go for Labour.

The Tories now enjoy a 16 point lead, and for this party too, the last time such a figure was recorded was October 2009. 

Of course, the new prime minister may be enjoying a honeymoon bounce. When John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher mid term, the Conservatives overtook Labour in the polls. Brown’s ascension to Labour leadership in June earned him a double-digit lead by September, but after that his popularity rapidly crumbled. 

Theresa May could experience something similar. YouGov pollster Anthony Wells noted: “The current polls look wonderful for her, but on past timescales they won’t necessarily be so rosy in a couple of months’ time.”

But Jeremy Corbyn never enjoyed such an edge. In the heady days of September 2015, after he clinched a surprise victory in the Labour leadership election, ICM found Labour enjoying an immediate honeymoon boost of one point. 

That still put Labour lagging four points behind the recently victorious Conservatives, with 32 per cent of the vote.

The gap has widened. Immediately after Brexit, the Tories had 36 per cent of the vote and Labour 32 per cent. Both parties were tested in the following month, and the Conservatives triumphed. 

For the hard left backing Corbyn, a 27 per cent slice of the vote is welcome after years as political outcasts. The centre left, on the other hand, must hope May trips up – or that Owen Smith can claim a honeymoon bounce of his own.