Mehdi Hasan

Mehdi Hasan’s polemical take on politics, economics and foreign affairs

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On the deficit, Clinton gets it but Obama doesn't.

The Bubba comes out against austerity.

Here's Bill Clinton speaking at the Campus Progress conference in Washington, DC, yesterday:

In the current Budget debate, there is all this discussion about how much will come from spending cuts, how much will come from tax increases. Almost nobody's talking about one of the central points that everyone who's analysed this situation makes -- including the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles Commission -- which said you shouldn't do any of this until the economy is clearly recovering.

Because if you do things that dampen economic growth . . . And the UK's finding this out now. They adopted this big austerity budget. And there's a good chance that economic activity will go down so much that tax revenues will be reduced even more than spending is cut and their deficit will increase.

He gets it. He understands the point that John Maynard Keynes made eight decades ago:

The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity.

But here's Barack Obama -- who came to office with a pro-Keynes, pro-stimulus mindset and advisory team (Christina Romer, Larry Summers) -- speaking on Saturday 2 July, in his weekly radio address:

. . . We're working to reduce our nation's deficit. Government has to start living within its means, just like families do. We have to cut the spending we can't afford so we can put the economy on sounder footing and give our businesses the confidence they need to grow and create jobs.

I never thought I'd opt for Bill Clinton over Barack Obama (or "Barack Herbert Hoover Obama", as Paul Krugman puts it) but, on the deficit, the latter has become an austerian in recent months. Clinton, on the other hand, remains a Keynesian -- and it is Keynesian economics that can get us out of this mess.

[Hat-tip: Left Foot Forward and Andrew Sparrow]

26 comments

Sam's picture

Difference is Obama has to compromise with republicans who want him to look bad, Clinton would also if he was in office...

Lady J's picture

Mehdi, ENOUGH, ENOUGH, ENOUGH.

Your constant obessive putdown of Obama is tiresome.

Did Clinton inherit Lehman? The ans is, NO.

If Obama did not know how to manage the economy would he have taken the necessary steps to bring the US back from the brink of depression and out of a recession.

I am a liberal but I am sick and tired of your 'Abosolute Ideological' stance. Obama does what works, not what is Keynesian or Monitorist.

Apart from the above points I raised, do you think a black president in America has as much Leverage as Clinton, the man who is responsible for the radical deregulation of the financial industry, namely, the deregulation of the Glass-Steagall Act, designed to prevent financial institutions from getting 'too big to fail' (Robert Scheer, Truthdig.com, for huff post, june 2011).
ENOUGH MEHDI.

Mr Damage's picture

Clinton gets it, Obama dosn't, " he did not inhale" Monica might not find Obama that easy to infiltrate.

Clinton was a disgrace , he was a pot smoking red neck who cheated not only his electorates but his own wife,
and denied it all...

Jacob's picture

While Clinton is right about the stupidity of our government he actually Clinton doesn't entirely get it, it was his willingness to run a surplus that helped lead to the problems we have now.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-growing-government-deficit-actually-m...

We really need people to understand how our monetary system works, unfortunately the deficit hysterics are winning the day and people will suffer needlessly because of their stupidity.

trevor marwood's picture

This crash was,nt cyclic it was the greatest financial crash since the South Sea Bubble.Spivery and Ponzies brought about the crash.The Condem cuts are already costing us more borrowing but they do not care because there ideological in the UK as in the USA.The bought out politicians are making decisions to suit the elites and there paymasters they have no interest in whats right for the economy or the majority of people in both countries.Its no coincidence that the Reaganite/Thatcher neocons are running the same scam in each country !!!!

NJP1's picture

Obama has a choice. Either he borrows more money to support the tottering infrastructure and support the colossal military machine, or he reduces support benefits to the 10% unemployed and the 40 million on food aid. If he borrows another $4 trillion, that pushes the debt above annual GDP and the country into bankruptcy and guarantees default a couple of years hence. That might sustain the economy a little beyond the next election, the total collapse would come halfway though his second term of office. If he doesn’t borrow, that pushes the infrastructure towards immediate collapse because there won’t be enough money (tax income) to support 10% unemployed and 40 million on food aid and maintain the military as well as everything else that’s dependent on government money. That would make Obama’s departure certain, and could put Bachmann in office wrapped in her religious security blanket with her wishlist politics.
http://www.yourmedievalfuture.com/

Captain Sensible's picture

Push a Hamlet up your wife's fanny mate!

Josh's picture

As you tools conveniently forget, Keynes also said that in times of economic growth, the government should be running a surplus, and public spending should be low. Neither of which was true in the American and British context. So if you're going to lecture us on Keynesian macroeconomics, at least get your facts right.

aide memoire's picture

I groan at the lack of historical context when some people cite Keynes. Keynes argued for more government spending to stimulate economies, but he was arguing that the governments of his time should raise their spending to a level that would still be BELOW what our 21st century governments call "austerity".

Mike S's picture

To be fair to Obama, he does have a few maniacs in Congress causing him budget problems...

Marcus's picture

Have you ever thought that perhaps everybody else understands perfectly and it is perhaps you that simply does not 'get it'?

I do not like the cuts, but I know and understand that the economic argument was lost long ago.

Personally, i would reduce spending and massively cut consumer-related taxes in order to jolt us out of the recession i suspect we are all still in.

With VAT, i would go further than Ed Balls with the reductions.

mittfh's picture

One thing that doesn't help in the cuts vs spending debate is there appears to be precious little clarity over either what is being cut or its effect on ordinary people. The doomsayers predicted the cuts would have an immediately noticeable effect on people, whereas in reality the extent of cuts to local authority budgets were only revealed earlier this year (because they get their funding from multiple sources, they had to calculate the effects of cuts to numerous individual grants), and it's only in this financial year they're starting the first phase of cuts. Unsurprisingly "soft" services like youth centres and parks/recreation are the first to feel the bite; while for other areas (e.g. road maintenance) it may take a few years before the effects become noticeable. The new universal benefit and benefits/pensions uprating by CPI rather than RPI will only be noticed over the long term, as will the money saved by the controversial Atos Origin medical assessments of IB claimants (with allegations that they don't look at the medical history of claimants, or take any notice of assessments by other medical professions, or their pay is partially dependent on the number of people they assess as fit for work). Schools funding is in a mess, with Academies and Free Schools getting temporary extra pots of money, while local authorities have (allegedly equivalent) reductions in education budgets. HE funding is theoretically being cut, but since most students will be taking out loans to cover the cost, in reality it's more a case of moving money from one budget to another.

Still, it's interesting that even though local authority grants have apparently been reduced by less than 10% over five years, many are planning bigger cuts - my LA is planning to reduce by 20% (not just staffing but services and buildings) - again, most of those will probably take a few years to filter through and be noticed by people (and of course, while buildings may be emptied, they won't save much money until the council can sell them off, which may only happen once the economy recovers... and of course, the longer they're left unoccupied and possibly unmaintained, the lower the expected resale value will be).

Tristan's picture

@Josh - I think the point you raise is covered in Mehdi's quote from Keynes which says "The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity".

We must face the economic problem that exists *now*. How we got to this position is as much to do with over-reliance on one industry (FSI) to provide the nation's tax revenue as it is with anything else. That error has to be reviewed and addressed*.

However, the deficit is a separate issue and how to deal with it must be to ensure that the economy is growing.

(* whether this government has any interest in broadening our industrial base is another question. One feels like their solution to a crisis of neo-liberalism is simply more neo-liberalism).

ang's picture

Of course Clinton is right and Obama knows he's right, but politically, Obama has to be careful and although he talks of reducing the deficit, he wouldn't do it until the economy was strong. Unlike Cameron, he ain't stupid.

Indu Pendent's picture

Before 2008, Labour borrowed £350Bn when the economy was booming. But what did the kids then get for it now?

Charlie K's picture

Mehdi, you're not a Keynesian. You advocate prolifgate spending in times of both boom and bust. You don't adjust your position relative to the state of the economy. You espouse, instead, some distortion of Keynesian theory. I didn't hear you, before the crash, arguing for a balanced budget?

Mr Danger's picture

"and it is Keynesian economics which can get us out of this mess."

Good thing the Tories are planning large deficits for the next several years then.

I do love it when we are running 10% deficits and the left says "what we need to try is Keynesian economics".

arif's picture

conclusion = brown should have cut during the boom just as the tories have been saying.

matthew fox's picture

More nonsense from the usual suspects.

Clinton raised taxes and cut spending.

He didn't use the Gideon 20/80 rule, Clinton had to cut defence spending and raise taxes on the wealthy.

Not exactly rocket science.

Suzanne's picture

Arif,
maybe so but let's be clear, Osborne made it very clear that the Tories would have matched Labour's spending pound for pound pre crash. The Tories can't have this both ways. They were either telling porkie pies back then or they meant what they said and are in no position to criticise Labour's spending pre crash.

David Morris's picture

Keynes advocated spending-based stimuli. As it was spending beyond our means that got us into this mess, how can more spending be the solution?

PeteyMcPeterson's picture

How come virtually any of Medhi's comments turns into a Labour vs Tory debate?

No matter what your impressions of how labour handled things in the past, this is not the place to bring it up.

I have no idea about macroeconomics or Keynesian theory but I would have though it blindingly obvious that if your financial stimulus plan is based on growth then undermining investor confidence by cutting indiscriminately is not a wise move.

Mortimer Bloomington's picture

@ Josh

Precisely. In fact Keynes only prescribed deficit spending if it would grant immediate growth. He did not allow for constant deficit spending in a time of crisis. Any spending, following Keynes, needed to be targeted and government led. He would never have agreed to politicians handing their power over to the banks. He would never have agreed to banks being given money WITHOUT any strings attached. I am sick of these blatant distortions of Keynes.

avetisyan's picture

This was the laziest article. God Mehdi, you really are a hack. Would it kill you to think through an argument for more than five minutes and formulate an idea. You have no opinions and no politics, just a vague sense of what one ought to believe as NS Editor. In short, you are the everyday liberal charlatan narcissistically begging people to think he cares about something other than how to perpetuate his lifestyle. How did you get this job?

hugh markey's picture

If 'credit' is such a good thing that it is an essential tool of the stock market, why is it frowned upon in polite circles? The mortgage has saved many a Tory administration. Not to mention council house sales! The philosophy of live now pay later came into play in the late fifties.
Remember SUPERMAC. "You've never had it so good!" Hire purchase, an American financial device bringing Never-Never-Land that bit closer, came in with the PM's blessing. Better than income tax - indirect tax!
It's a kind of 'Back to the Future' hallucination. Still, if anyone can think of something better..........
Isn't it a Keynesian fact of life - 'In the long run we're all dead!' Ah, but then there's Heaven, or Paradise, or some where nice! Or so the Tories claim. Libdems remain agnostic.
Would You Credit it?

Tom's picture

Keynesian economics has been proven to be totally unrealistic. Do your really want to be publically associated with that?

Also, many people consider Clinton to be a war criminal for his role in overthrowing Aristede in Haiti. Do you also want to be connected to a war criminal? Maybe you should think before you post.

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